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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by zeno View Post
    No need. The French did win that war.

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      Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

      BUT. The Tories are likely to be wiped out in an election. There might be a lot of Yosemite Sam Brexorcists but they face 2 problems: A haon - the electorate has swung to Remain. A dó - The epic incompetence of the Tories will bite them in their bottoms with votes. Unelectable now Tory party.
      The electorate hasn’t swung to Remain if you break it down via constituencies. You have to factor into any potential election that the Remain vote could end up split while the Leave vote could be hoovered up by an extreme Brexit Tory campaign. Whilst there would be an attempt at tactical voting by Remain voters, Corbyn is toxic electorally as his standing in the polls consistently shows and, as Balla posted above, Labour would have to equivocate their arses off to keep everyone in the party happy. The Tories on the other hand could be united because the Remainers are terrified of the membership. As for the incompetence line, that would be neatly bundled up and plunged down the latrine with Mrs May.

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        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

        The electorate hasn’t swung to Remain if you break it down via constituencies. You have to factor into any potential election that the Remain vote could end up split while the Leave vote could be hoovered up by an extreme Brexit Tory campaign. Whilst there would be an attempt at tactical voting by Remain voters, Corbyn is toxic electorally as his standing in the polls consistently shows and, as Balla posted above, Labour would have to equivocate their arses off to keep everyone in the party happy. The Tories on the other hand could be united because the Remainers are terrified of the membership. As for the incompetence line, that would be neatly bundled up and plunged down the latrine with Mrs May.
        My gut instinct is that hard core Brexorcists are a smallish number, their argument over Brexit is lost for rational voters and the Tories will be punished. And a fatal split is coming for them. Of course, it might down to a tapeworm in me gut....

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          Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

          My gut instinct is that hard core Brexorcists are a smallish number, their argument over Brexit is lost for rational voters and the Tories will be punished. And a fatal split is coming for them. Of course, it might down to a tapeworm in me gut....
          I think you are underestimating the number who still want to leave the EU and would vote accordingly.

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            Despite what's written in the media, I think the pro EU candidates will do rather well at the EP elections.
            Local elections will be a minefield though.
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              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
              Despite what's written in the media, I think the pro EU candidates will do rather well at the EP elections.
              Local elections will be a minefield though.
              Finally, those common sense tablets you've been taking are beginning to work

              Comment


                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                Despite what's written in the media, I think the pro EU candidates will do rather well at the EP elections.
                Local elections will be a minefield though.
                The Tories will be destroyed at the EP elections, with the Brexit voters backing Farage. If she is still in power, it will be the final nail in Theresa’s coffin.

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                  "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                  Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

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                    https://m.independent.ie/business/br...-38008316.html

                    Interesting that all the pre-made garlic bread is made up North. In case of a no deal Brexit all you need is a loaf of good bread (bake yourself), Irish butter, French garlic and Irish parsley. However, this is a bit simple as the flour for the bread does present a problem as a lot of wheat is imported into Ireland from the U.K.

                    Another good example of the complexities of north-south and east-west supply chains.

                    Last edited by The Last Stand; 13th-April-2019, 15:12.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                      I think you are underestimating the number who still want to leave the EU and would vote accordingly.
                      That's a widespread impression I'm seeing, and a false one as you say. People on the average industrial wage in Grimsby haven't really changed their minds on any of this.
                      "There are probably more annoying things than being hectored about African development by a wealthy Irish rock star in a cowboy hat, but I can't think of one at the moment"

                      Paul Theroux

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                        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                        The Tories will be destroyed at the EP elections, with the Brexit voters backing Farage. If she is still in power, it will be the final nail in Theresa’s coffin.
                        Sunday Telegraph is claiming that polls show Tories would lose 60 seats and Jez would be PM, if there was an election.

                        Curious why they'd run such a story though. Telegraph is pro Boris, do they really think that such a story helps the Brexiteers' cause?
                        Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

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                          Originally posted by rathbaner View Post

                          Sunday Telegraph is claiming that polls show Tories would lose 60 seats and Jez would be PM, if there was an election.

                          Curious why they'd run such a story though. Telegraph is pro Boris, do they really think that such a story helps the Brexiteers' cause?
                          Perhaps an incentive for them to pass the withdrawal agreement.

                          Would be ironic that the ERG could kill Brexit by chasing unicorns.

                          Comment


                            Tory media always goes through a period of predicting the apocalypse before an election to galvanize the core vote.
                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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                              There's a definite push to it though. They've been trumpeting Yougov for months when it was the only poll that had the Tories ahead. It still has the Tories ahead, and is even more of an outlier now, but it's been relegated. Something is afoot.
                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                My prediction is they will back the withdrawal agreement, avoiding the EP election, she will resign, a nutter will take over and call an election for the autumn running on a ticket to tear up the WA. I can’t see a GE unless and until a new Tory leader is in place.

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