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    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

    There are already medicines in short supply in both the UK and Ireland. Mostly due to stockpiling, but a taste of things to come. Naproxen is one that comes to mind.

    Perosnal stockpiling is not that that easy. For genetic asthma drugs they will givie you a script for 6 months, but good luck asking your GP or pharmacy for a 6 month supply of insulin.

    Older people generally don't travel as much overseas, and further Spain has recently changed it's dispencing so that far fewer drugs are available OTC.

    Supply chains are so integrated nowadays that even a "known" event like a no deal Brexit will cause absolute chaos - ports will be blocked, roads will be parking lots etc. You can't plan for events like a no deal, just deal with the fall out.

    Your going to find a problem with everything if you try hard enough.

    How can current shortages be a taste of things to
    come when there are always some medicines in short supply because of a number of factors that have nothing to do with Brexit.

    “older people don’t travel much” a have you been in Spain or Portugal in your life? Not to mind the fact that you don’t personally have to travel to get medicines because someone else can get them every plane that goes to holiday destinations outside of peak school
    holiday is filled to the brim with silver haired pensioners.

    And if spain has changed its dispensing then someone should tell their pharmacists.

    There is a lot of fear around Brexit, and some
    of it may be understandable, but the doomsday attitude that prevails doesn’t hold as much water as many think.

    They predicted across the water the demise of sterling when it refused to join the Euro, and it didn’t do any harm, they predicted a recession as soon as Brexit was voted for, didn’t happen.


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        Originally posted by lawrence View Post



        They predicted across the water the demise of sterling when it refused to join the Euro, and it didn’t do any harm, they predicted a recession as soon as Brexit was voted for, didn’t happen.


        This is pretty glib.

        The UK didn't have a recession because the Bank of England:

        - Cut the bank rate from .5% to .25%
        - Introduced term funding to ensure that that rate was passed through
        - Put in place a plan to buy 10bn in Corporate Bonds over 18 months, and 60 billion of Govt bonds over 6 months.


        Despite the return to QE measures used after the 2008 crash, the UK has still lost billions in lost growth.

        The BOE was entirely right to predict recession after the Brexit vote. If they hadn't identified the risk and spent tens of billions of pounds averting it it would have happened.

        As it stands, it required the BOE to deploy the equivalent of 150% of the UKs entire annual defence budget to stave it off.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post


          This is pretty glib.

          The UK didn't have a recession because the Bank of England:

          - Cut the bank rate from .5% to .25%
          - Introduced term funding to ensure that that rate was passed through
          - Put in place a plan to buy 10bn in Corporate Bonds over 18 months, and 60 billion of Govt bonds over 6 months.


          Despite the return to QE measures used after the 2008 crash, the UK has still lost billions in lost growth.

          The BOE was entirely right to predict recession after the Brexit vote. If they hadn't identified the risk and spent tens of billions of pounds averting it it would have happened.

          As it stands, it required the BOE to deploy the equivalent of 150% of the UKs entire annual defence budget to stave it off.
          Call it glib all you want, but it’s just an example of how the headlines of doom are not as bad as they get reported to be. The food and medicines shortages that are talked about for Ireland are over stated as well.

          Comment


            Originally posted by lawrence View Post

            Call it glib all you want, but it’s just an example of how the headlines of doom are not as bad as they get reported to be. The food and medicines shortages that are talked about for Ireland are over stated as well.
            It's a bad example though.

            The BOE predicted recession. It then had to spend half of the entire annual healthcare budget of the UK averting it.

            That's pretty doomy, in my book. The total UK public spending budget, including debt on interest, is just over 800bn. So the response cost knocking on for 10% of the entire cost of running the country for a year. This being a budget for a country with one of the top 10 militaries in the world and free universal healthcare.

            It's not a small thing.

            That people think that all the forecasts were wrong and the recession just failed to show up suggests to me that the media isn't making it quite clear to people exactly how bad the situation already is.
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Originally posted by lawrence View Post


              “older people don’t travel much” a have you been in Spain or Portugal in your life? Not to mind the fact that you don’t personally have to travel to get medicines because someone else can get them every plane that goes to holiday destinations outside of peak school
              holiday is filled to the brim with silver haired pensioners.

              And if spain has changed its dispensing then someone should tell their pharmacists.

              Well considering I live for a few months a year on the Portugal / Spain border, I can tell you you are utterly wrong. Utterly.

              You are confusing people who have moved to Spain / Portugal v those who visit. The age profile for visitors in my area is median mid forties. The distribution curve is fairly well spread but diminishes rapidly for over 70s.

              On the pharmacies, they are not supposed to dispense prescription drugs OTC, but yeah, a lot do. I'm not sure someone buying a rake of Zimovane is necessarily a good thing though. There is a reason your GP wants to see you on a fairly periodic basis.

              As a last point the UK and Irish govt aren't stockpiling a load of drugs for the fun of it. They know there will be shortages.
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                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                Well considering I live for a few months a year on the Portugal / Spain border, I can tell you you are utterly wrong. Utterly.

                You are confusing people who have moved to Spain / Portugal v those who visit. The age profile for visitors in my area is median mid forties. The distribution curve is fairly well spread but diminishes rapidly for over 70s.

                On the pharmacies, they are not supposed to dispense prescription drugs OTC, but yeah, a lot do. I'm not sure someone buying a rake of Zimovane is necessarily a good thing though. There is a reason your GP wants to see you on a fairly periodic basis.

                As a last point the UK and Irish govt aren't stockpiling a load of drugs for the fun of it. They know there will be shortages.
                No Fitzy, you're putting 1 and 1 together there and getting ¥. They have to stockpile 'cos 'no deal' is not impossible and they'd be slaughtered if it happened and no preparations. A better analogy is distributing Iodine tablets in the event if a nuclear war. Unlikely to happen.

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                  Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

                  No Fitzy, you're putting 1 and 1 together there and getting ¥. They have to stockpile 'cos 'no deal' is not impossible and they'd be slaughtered if it happened and no preparations. A better analogy is distributing Iodine tablets in the event if a nuclear war. Unlikely to happen.
                  I don't get the distinction. They're stockpiling in preparation for a potential no deal Brexit? Isn't that what Fitzy said?
                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                    I don't get the distinction. They're stockpiling in preparation for a potential no deal Brexit? Isn't that what Fitzy said?
                    Fitzy wrote: "As a last point the UK and Irish govt aren't stockpiling a load of drugs for the fun of it. They know there will be shortages"
                    I read that as implying they know something for certain maybe more than the public.............maybe he meant - "They know there COULD be shortages" - which is true.
                    Can you imagine what a 'no deal' Brexit would generate socially as the effects kick in?
                    The poll tax riots would have been a Doddle, a Skive!! compared to that.

                    "When you get right down to it....when you scrape away all the crap..........they're nay better than us!.........In fact! they're worse than us!........... They're ya are! .......And I'm scum!!" Rab C.

                    Comment


                      The Irish Health Authority, HPRA, publishes lists of medicine shortages every two weeks. Latest update:

                      https://www.hpra.ie/homepage/medicin...5-ff00008c97d0

                      The MHRA in the UK does similar as far as I know.

                      Medicines go into short supply for many reasons including issues in supply chain or at manufacturing plants etc.

                      "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                      Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                      Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

                        Fitzy wrote: "As a last point the UK and Irish govt aren't stockpiling a load of drugs for the fun of it. They know there will be shortages"
                        I read that as implying they know something for certain maybe more than the public.............maybe he meant - "They know there COULD be shortages" - which is true.
                        Can you imagine what a 'no deal' Brexit would generate socially as the effects kick in?
                        The poll tax riots would have been a Doddle, a Skive!! compared to that.

                        "When you get right down to it....when you scrape away all the crap..........they're nay better than us!.........In fact! they're worse than us!........... They're ya are! .......And I'm scum!!" Rab C.
                        Ah I have you. I'd read Fitzy's post as having the "in the event of..." implicit by context.

                        And yeah - if it emerges, and the effects are marked, the level of impact is hard to gauge. The UK's political class is already almost entirely discredited. And not just by Brexit - the Iraq War, Parliamentary Expenses, still lingering suspicions of suppression of investigations around sex offences, Hillsborough, Grooming Gangs and a decade of austerity, food banks, ever worsening jobs and working conditions.

                        This is not an establishment with credit in the bank, and Brexit has further denuded both Parliament and the Executive of authority. We now see a period in which Party whips, party loyalty, cabinet loyalty etc are losing their cohesive effect. And a government that hasn't passed meaningful legislation in, what, 2 years?

                        And onto that steaming pile of ordure will be lobbed a hand grenade.

                        The British establishment looks a little ropey to say the least.

                        "The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear."
                        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                          Well considering I live for a few months a year on the Portugal / Spain border, I can tell you you are utterly wrong. Utterly.

                          Never really understood the irish enjoyment for sun and heat...I know two exemples who absolutely cannot afford a temperature above 15°C...
                          "To be energetic and self-sufficing is to be happy; but while one desire remains in the heart happiness may not come there. For to desire is to be incomplete: it is the badge of dependence, the signal of unhappiness, and to be freed from that is to be freed from every fetter that can possibly be forged." (James Stephens, Deirdre)

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                            Ah I have you. I'd read Fitzy's post as having the "in the event of..." implicit by context.

                            And yeah - if it emerges, and the effects are marked, the level of impact is hard to gauge. The UK's political class is already almost entirely discredited. And not just by Brexit - the Iraq War, Parliamentary Expenses, still lingering suspicions of suppression of investigations around sex offences, Hillsborough, Grooming Gangs and a decade of austerity, food banks, ever worsening jobs and working conditions.

                            This is not an establishment with credit in the bank, and Brexit has further denuded both Parliament and the Executive of authority. We now see a period in which Party whips, party loyalty, cabinet loyalty etc are losing their cohesive effect. And a government that hasn't passed meaningful legislation in, what, 2 years?

                            And onto that steaming pile of ordure will be lobbed a hand grenade.

                            The British establishment looks a little ropey to say the least.

                            "The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear."
                            Yep.

                            Comment


                              In terms of Risk Assessment you have to look at the impact of something happening and the likelihood that it will occur.

                              it's pretty clear from what those who reside in the UK say that the impact of a no deal Brexit could be diabolical while hopefully the likelihood of it happening is still low.

                              e.g. this all gets very real when you see someone as measured as Pp stressing over a no deal Brexit, as he has to ensure he has vital prescription drugs for his daughter's chronic medical issues regardless of what clowning politicians go on with!!

                              I.e. The Impact of a no deal Brexit is simply too large to ignore for so many people, even though hopefully the likelihood of it occurring is low.
                              ____________________________________________
                              Munster were great when they were Munster.

                              alas they are just north munster now.......
                              ____________________________________________

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Daithi View Post
                                In terms of Risk Assessment you have to look at the impact of something happening and the likelihood that it will occur.

                                it's pretty clear from what those who reside in the UK say that the impact of a no deal Brexit could be diabolical while hopefully the likelihood of it happening is still low.

                                e.g. this all gets very real when you see someone as measured as Pp stressing over a no deal Brexit, as he has to ensure he has vital prescription drugs for his daughter's chronic medical issues regardless of what clowning politicians go on with!!

                                I.e. The Impact of a no deal Brexit is simply too large to ignore for so many people, even though hopefully the likelihood of it occurring is low.

                                Definitely. It's also, imo, clear that some of the "No Deal" prep is pour encourager les autres and has been leveraged by May to help bounce her deal through Parliament.

                                But that doesn't mean that it's not real preparation for real risks.


                                The compounding variable here is the state of the executive. I talked a bit above about the general level of heft that the British establishment has left. But there's a more direct problem here.

                                The current government is, in the opinion of many, the most incompetent in post war history. It has made a balls of every major office of state in a fundamental way in the last few years. Budget U turns, NHS in crisis, Failing Grayling wherever he goes, Johnson's disastrous stint as Foreign Secretary, Windrush deportations, a brutal and incompetent reform of welfare etc etc etc.

                                If a Hard Brexit happens, its going to happen to a lame duck PM who no longer commands her own Party and can't pass Govt business, at the helm of the most hapless front bench anyone can recall.

                                If it's not catastrophic, it can only be by accident. Local Government is on its knees, the Civil Service exhausted, the Police underfunded and demoralised, vital public services already overstretched, thousands of children going to school hungry, food banks...the list goes on.

                                I mean, **** like. Really. ****.
                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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