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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

    It's all about sequencing. Which is the reason why May's deal still has a chance. Only when a second referendum is the last option available will enough MPs vote for it. Norway plus/ Common Market 2.0/ Labour's deal would have to be rejected first, as well as May's WA. Then "moderates" would vote for a referendum. Seems unlikely that it would ever come to that, but stranger things have been happening.
    It's all about the optics. The EU side will have looked at that vote and will be shaking their heads.

    Labour could have whipped MPs or given a free vote. 200+ voting for a PV now would have send a strong signal to Brussels that it was a viable option.

    85 votes and an empty opposition bench sends an entirely different message.

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      Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

      It's all about the optics. The EU side will have looked at that vote and will be shaking their heads.

      Labour could have whipped MPs or given a free vote. 200+ voting for a PV now would have send a strong signal to Brussels that it was a viable option.

      85 votes and an empty opposition bench sends an entirely different message.
      The EU, very sensibly has come to the conclusion that an orderly divorce is the best option until such time that the UK decides it actually wants to grow up. That Farage is wandering around trying to precipitate a no Deal makes it even less likely the EU would allow such an eventuality, thank God.

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        Two things:
        1) If there is a 21 month extension and then the UK change their mind and walk away that looks remarkably like the Malthouse compromise, so could see the ERG voting against MV3
        Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



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          2) If there is a long extension then they have to have European elections, but these could very easily work as a de facto referendum. The UK Euro elections use the d' Hondt system so its party list anyway. But if they all use it to support their position, then effectively you have a decision around 4 points of view;
          a) No Deal (vote UKIP, Brexit Party, DUP)
          b) TM's Deal (Vote Tory)
          c) Customs Union (Vote Labour)
          d) Remain (TIG, Lib Dems, SNP, PC,SF,SDLP)

          In the event that there is a majority for a A or B and there is a majority of that majority for no deal, then leave with no deal. The maths can be worked out later but they are not insurmountable, but they can have a pseudo referendum without all the hate of the actual referendum, and relatively quickly.
          Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



          Comment


            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

            It's all about the optics. The EU side will have looked at that vote and will be shaking their heads.

            Labour could have whipped MPs or given a free vote. 200+ voting for a PV now would have send a strong signal to Brussels that it was a viable option.

            85 votes and an empty opposition bench sends an entirely different message.
            Not really. The EU are well apprised of the PV campaign strategy, as outlined by Gina Miller and Alastair Campbell. This motion was just TIG drawing attention to themselves.

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              Bercow looks to have killed May's deal once and for all. He has ruled out allowing it to the floor again barring any legally binding changes.
              "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

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                ​​​He has massive cojones, that lad. Massive.
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                  Rumours flying about now that May could prorogue parliament and begin a new session, thereby getting around this. No idea how long that would take
                  "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

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                    Bercow has just said that MPs could vote to change the standing order preventing another vote.

                    More cats than pigeons at this stage.
                    "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Jenta View Post
                      Bercow has just said that MPs could vote to change the standing order preventing another vote.

                      More cats than pigeons at this stage.
                      I am amazed that Bercow’s ruling has been welcomed by Remainers. I think it makes No Deal distinctly more likely, worryingly the ERG are delighted...

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                        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                        I am amazed that Bercow’s ruling has been welcomed by Remainers. I think it makes No Deal distinctly more likely, worryingly the ERG are delighted...
                        Presumably it's based on the Gov previously stating that, if no deal is secured by 20 March, they would request a long extension. Kwasi Kwarteng repeated this on the Commons this evening.

                        How this request will play out in the context of no third vote is anyone's guess.
                        "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

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                          Maybe the remainers are hoping that May will add on a Peoples' Vote to the motion, thus allowing it to be put before the House.

                          Comment


                            Somethings got to give here now.

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                              Two options I think:

                              May accepts that the only way she can get her deal through is with a PV amendment attached, and accepts this to get a third vote.

                              They extend A50 to allow for a significant enough renegotiation to be able to bring the deal back before the house. Hard to see how that happens without some of May's red lines giving way.

                              Either way, her brinkmanship was shameful and I think it's admirable that the Speaker has stood up for the House.
                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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                                Cogent analysis as usual BB. Hear hear re Bercow - situation was crying out for somebody to say the Empress was actually in the nip.

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