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    Originally posted by mr chips View Post
    No more than the likes of Chris Grayling saying a people's vote is a bad idea because it would encourage violence from the far right, the notion that a democratically chosen path should be avoided because of a few hundred nutcases is pretty poor thinking. Nowhere is perfect but between Belfast and Dublin, I know which city I'd feel safer living in these days and it isn't the one with the floozy in the jacuzzi. At least here you can go to the gym in the morning and not be shot ...



    Daithi, I take issue with your characterisation of everyone in NI as 1.5m subsidised bigots. The vast majority of people here just want to get on with their lives and are no more bigoted than you (possibly less so, on the basis of what you just wrote). As for "subsidised", this is a result of decades of Westminster-led underinvestment here, not helped by three decades of conflict. Moreover, the figures for "subsidy" include the per-head contribution to things like to the British armed forces and vast follies like Trident, to HS2 which is of no benefit to NI whatsoever, even to the upkeep of the royal family! There would be huge economic gains to be had from a single-island economy driven by proper investment with structural support from our friends in the EU - especially in the aftermath of any form of Brexit. Being part of an open economy, based on serious FDI as already happens in the 26 counties, would be transformative for NI as well as the border counties and of net benefit to any future all-island state with a completely undivided internal market.
    Under the GFA, I understand that there is first a poll in NI and then one in the South. I would probably vote for a united Ireland but I know of plenty of people who would not, particularly as it would be still be a very devisive
    vote in NI (a strong proportion of both communities would need to want it).

    I don’t think the economics can be ignored if NI is still to enjoy the same standard of living - it has a disproportionately high public sector and enjoys transfers from London (although that is not unique in the U.K.). Any settlement would need to to have a firm plan in place to ensure there was not an economic cliff which would also lend support to the crazies.

    The back-stop was a win-win for NI which business and farmers recognised. It was an opportunity to have the best of both worlds. To be the Hong Kong of Europe - yet the DUP see it otherwise.

    Comment


      Hh
      Originally posted by rathbaner View Post
      Corbyn simply doesn't have the votes to change anything.

      The likes of Hoey and Skinner plus about seven others puts serious intervention well beyond Labour.

      I just don't understand why someone who can literally do SFA apart from stand by and watch is getting the rap for a policy that is Tory born, bred and executed.

      Of course I understand why the right wing press want the focus on Labour, i just don't get why sentient humans go along with that.
      Corbyn and Labour are not making ground because they are so indecisive.

      He could easily and coherently put all this on the Tories rather than pretend that he can secure a better deal.

      - Tory Brexiteers misled people
      - Tory Brexiteers lied and continue to do so
      - clear they had no plan outside the EU
      - what is happening now is already damaging the country - economically and reputationally
      - I will show leadership by firstly seeking an extension of article 50 and then going back to the people with clear alternatives.
      - Establish an independent electoral commission and ensure that people are clear this time what they are voting Ford

      if we stay in the EU this is what I want to see
      - I will ensure that the U.K. is not a free ride for welfare tourism
      (allowed under EU law).
      - i will ensure parliament has a greater say in eu decision making (again allowed under EU law)
      - i will ensure greater discretion for the U.K. in decision making at the EU (again allowed under subsidiarity and proportionality)
      - I will ensure that the U.K. Govt can invest in public projects including in the railways and reduce fares. (Again allowed)

      Instead while May is writing about her new battle for Britain, JC is moaning about having to wait 40 minutes for a bus.
      Last edited by The Last Stand; 4th-February-2019, 15:54.

      Comment


        Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

        Under the GFA, I understand that there is first a poll in NI and then one in the South. I would probably vote for a united Ireland but I know of plenty of people who would not, particularly as it would be still be a very devisive
        vote in NI (a strong proportion of both communities would need to want it).

        I don’t think the economics can be ignored if NI is still to enjoy the same standard of living - it has a disproportionately high public sector and enjoys transfers from London (although that is not unique in the U.K.). Any settlement would need to to have a firm plan in place to ensure there was not an economic cliff which would also lend support to the crazies.

        The back-stop was a win-win for NI which business and farmers recognised. It was an opportunity to have the best of both worlds. To be the Hong Kong of Europe - yet the DUP see it otherwise.
        I would still expect there to be a majority for it in the south - not as resounding as that which supported the GFA and the relinquishing of the territorial claim on NI, but a majority nonetheless. If Brexit proceeds as it currently looks like it might, it will as said above increase the proportion of the practical-minded among traditional unionism - and among those who identify as nationalist, for that matter. You're probably aware that the most recent figures from a year or 18 months back indicated that there wasn't been a majority in favour of a UI in either community. I'd be very interested to see if that was still the case now, and I think it would only be a matter of time before anyone involved in business, agriculture or tourism, or anyone with a reason to use the health service, would choose to vote in favour of reunification rather than continue to be shackled to the sinking ship currently listing between us and France.
        Tis but a scratch.

        Comment


          Originally posted by mr chips View Post

          I would still expect there to be a majority for it in the south - not as resounding as that which supported the GFA and the relinquishing of the territorial claim on NI, but a majority nonetheless. If Brexit proceeds as it currently looks like it might, it will as said above increase the proportion of the practical-minded among traditional unionism - and among those who identify as nationalist, for that matter. You're probably aware that the most recent figures from a year or 18 months back indicated that there wasn't been a majority in favour of a UI in either community. I'd be very interested to see if that was still the case now, and I think it would only be a matter of time before anyone involved in business, agriculture or tourism, or anyone with a reason to use the health service, would choose to vote in favour of reunification rather than continue to be shackled to the sinking ship currently listing between us and France.
          Maybe you are right. But it would need a lot of calm sensible voices coming to the fore, and having a long term plan for it to happen.

          Things are too emotive right now - particularly on that sinking ship. Coveney has been excellent but Leo seems to infuriate everyone (or perhaps just me). Meanwhile the DUP have boxed themselves and NI into a corner - hopefully the reasoned voices in tourism, farming and business will see that all island economy as something desirable.

          Further, communities would need to be brought along and to see that their identity is protected. In the short-term, can this happen with two diametrically opposed parties, SF and DUP? Pity the UUP (mainly) and SDLP seemed like o lose their nerve about forging shared policies.


          Comment


            Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
            Hh

            Corbyn and Labour are not making ground because they are so indecisive.

            He could easily and coherently put all this on the Tories rather than pretend that he can secure a better deal.

            - Tory Brexiteers misled people
            - Tory Brexiteers lied and continue to do so
            - clear they had no plan outside the EU
            - what is happening now is already damaging the country - economically and reputationally
            - I will show leadership by firstly seeking an extension of article 50 and then going back to the people with clear alternatives.
            - Establish an independent electoral commission and ensure that people are clear this time what they are voting Ford

            if we stay in the EU this is what I want to see
            - I will ensure that the U.K. is not a free ride for welfare tourism
            (allowed under EU law).
            - i will ensure parliament has a greater say in eu decision making (again allowed under EU law)
            - i will ensure greater discretion for the U.K. in decision making at the EU (again allowed under subsidiarity and proportionality)
            - I will ensure that the U.K. Govt can invest in public projects including in the railways and reduce fares. (Again allowed)

            Instead while May is writing about her new battle for Britain, JC is moaning about having to wait 40 minutes for a bus.
            I'm pretty sure he's said all that and more. But the newspapers and BBC don't report it and since he can't actually command sufficient votes in Parliament to change anything they have some excuse for not reporting it I guess.

            So long as the DUP back the Tories Labour is irrelevant to the progress of Brexit. When they tried to woo the DUP away from the Tories they were immediately denounced as unprincipled.

            Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

            Comment


              Anyway... looks like a serious [kicking] [game changer] from Germany:

              Brexit: Merkel hints at ‘creative’ solution on the Border
              Theresa May due to visit Belfast on Tuesday to deliver a Brexit speech



              German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “There are definitely options for preserving the integrity of the single market even when Northern Ireland isn’t part of it because it is part of Britain while at the same time meeting the desire to have, if possible, no border controls”. Photograph: Toshifumi Kitamura/Pool Photo via AP

              German chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday offered a way to break the deadlock over the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, calling for a creative solution to allay concerns over the future of Irish border arrangements.

              British prime minister Theresa May is seeking legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement with the EU to replace the Northern Irish backstop, that aims to prevent the reintroduction of a hard border on the island of Ireland.

              While Mrs Merkel said she did not want the so-called Withdrawal Agreement renegotiated, she added that difficult questions could be resolved with creativity, the strongest hint to date that the EU’s most powerful leader could be prepared to compromise.

              “There are definitely options for preserving the integrity of the single market even when Northern Ireland isn’t part of it because it is part of Britain while at the same time meeting the desire to have, if possible, no border controls,” Mrs Merkel said.

              “To solve this point you have to be creative and listen to each other, and such discussions can and must be conducted,” Mrs Merkel said at a news conference with Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo.

              Mrs Merkel said the Irish backstop issue could be solved as part of a discussion over a separate agreement on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom, offering Mrs May a potential way out of the deadlock.

              “We can still use the time to perhaps reach an agreement if everyone shows good will,” Mrs Merkel said.
              Last edited by The Last Stand; 4th-February-2019, 16:29.

              Comment


                Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                Maybe you are right. But it would need a lot of calm sensible voices coming to the fore, and having a long term plan for it to happen.

                Things are too emotive right now - particularly on that sinking ship. Coveney has been excellent but Leo seems to infuriate everyone (or perhaps just me). Meanwhile the DUP have boxed themselves and NI into a corner - hopefully the reasoned voices in tourism, farming and business will see that all island economy as something desirable.

                Further, communities would need to be brought along and to see that their identity is protected. In the short-term, can this happen with two diametrically opposed parties, SF and DUP? Pity the UUP (mainly) and SDLP seemed like o lose their nerve about forging shared policies.
                I completely agree. I have to say I think the biggest problem here is the DUP, and in particular the mindset of those at the top. I never thought I'd come to the conclusion that things were better when Peter Robinson was their leader, but he had at least some understanding of realpolitik and I don't think he would have taken the self-contradicting, mutually destructive path that Foster, Dodds and Wilson are pursuing.

                I'm not sure where things are going to go for the SDLP now that they've announced this "partnership" with Fianna Fáil. It may be a way of making Sinn Féin less relevant, but it's hard to see how it will work out for them. SF have essentially moved onto their territory by putting a lot more emphasis on civil rights and socially progressive policies, whereas much of the SDLP support is still dominated by the more conservative within nationalism, people who would still turn up to Sunday mass every single week and would have been more likely to vote no in the abortion referendum. It means that SF chimes more strongly with the younger voter and that shows in the relative support levels between the two parties.

                The UUP are well on the road to being a political irrelevance at this point. There are very few of the charismatic big thinkers left there - once Nesbitt shat the bed with his stupid antics that was it in terms of any hope of regenerating the party's fortunes for the foreseeable. Within unionism as a whole, the only way forward I see is for more rational voices to emerge within the DUP, and there's no prospect of that in the short term. I do have some hope for progress within working class unionist/loyalist areas where some genuinely positive grassroots work is being led not so much by the thugs in suits like Dee Stitt or Jamie Bryson, but by more open-minded people such as Linda Ervine. I wish she would get involved in politics here in a more high-profile way, as she is highly thought of in her own community and is a rare voice of calm and reason. I also think there's strong underlying support for Alliance politicians like Naomi Long, despite the amount of effort the DUP have put into fighting her tooth and nail.

                The task of bringing people together into a shared co-existence will never be easy, but I still think it can be done in the medium term. The most important thing is to find a way for the voices of reason to be more persuasive than the lunatics. Simple, really ...
                Tis but a scratch.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by rathbaner View Post

                  I'm pretty sure he's said all that and more. But the newspapers and BBC don't report it and since he can't actually command sufficient votes in Parliament to change anything they have some excuse for not reporting it I guess.

                  So long as the DUP back the Tories Labour is irrelevant to the progress of Brexit. When they tried to woo the DUP away from the Tories they were immediately denounced as unprincipled.
                  If he has said all that, please show me where and I will apologise to JC. I have watched parliament, I have been reading the news, and seeing exasperation from many labour supporters about his lack of leadership. I have also seen that his eyes are on a different prize.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by rathbaner View Post
                    Corbyn simply doesn't have the votes to change anything.

                    The likes of Hoey and Skinner plus about seven others puts serious intervention well beyond Labour.

                    I just don't understand why someone who can literally do SFA apart from stand by and watch is getting the rap for a policy that is Tory born, bred and executed.

                    Of course I understand why the right wing press want the focus on Labour, i just don't get why sentient humans go along with that.
                    Labours objection to Mays deal was largely party political - there is little substantial difference between what Labour claimed they wanted from Brexit and her plan. On that basis if there is a no deal (and I personally dont think there will be) Labour will rightly take part of the rap. It doesn't mean a no deal Brexit is down to them - but that they are responsible for not acting in the National interest to stop it.
                    ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                    Originally Posted by mr chips
                    AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                    Comment


                      The DUP are the political equivalent of the Tasmanian Devils. Extinction is inevitable in the modern world.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                        Labours objection to Mays deal was largely party political - there is little substantial difference between what Labour claimed they wanted from Brexit and her plan. On that basis if there is a no deal (and I personally dont think there will be) Labour will rightly take part of the rap. It doesn't mean a no deal Brexit is down to them - but that they are responsible for not acting in the National interest to stop it.
                        The difference between Norway and Canada as options is fairly substantial.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                          The difference between Norway and Canada as options is fairly substantial.
                          Labour gave the game away by objecting to the backstop and keeping their options open with the DUP.
                          ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                          Originally Posted by mr chips
                          AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                            Labour gave the game away by objecting to the backstop and keeping their options open with the DUP.
                            Moving the goalposts.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                              Moving the goalposts.
                              I haven't moved anything - their position on the backstop illustrates that they were playing politics. In the bigger scheme of things both were offering a Soft Brexit.

                              My main point is that Labour did not act in the National interest and will take some blame if there is a no deal.

                              Here is what Alan Johnson (former Labour Government minister has to say)

                              "I must be missing something because unlike Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn, I can’t actually see much wrong with the agreement. It seems to me to be the kind of deal that a 52/48 referendum result requires. After the shocking outcome of David Cameron’s folly in June 2016, the majority of my former colleagues on both sides of the House wanted to remain, but respected the outcome of the referendum and were determined to retain the closest possible relationship with our European partners."
                              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                              Originally Posted by mr chips
                              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                                I haven't moved anything - their position on the backstop illustrates that they were playing politics. In the bigger scheme of things both were offering a Soft Brexit.

                                My main point is that Labour did not act in the National interest and will take some blame if there is a no deal.

                                Here is what Alan Johnson (former Labour Government minister has to say)

                                "I must be missing something because unlike Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn, I can’t actually see much wrong with the agreement. It seems to me to be the kind of deal that a 52/48 referendum result requires. After the shocking outcome of David Cameron’s folly in June 2016, the majority of my former colleagues on both sides of the House wanted to remain, but respected the outcome of the referendum and were determined to retain the closest possible relationship with our European partners."
                                The Norway option is substantially different to the Canada option. This contradicts your assertion that there is 'little substantial difference between what Labour claimed they wanted and her plan'. The difference between being in a customs union and not being in a customs union is substantial. Either defend that assertion or accept that you were mistaken. Or just waffle about something else. You generally make use of that alternative arrangement.

                                Comment

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