Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    A few crucial amendments tomorrow. The one about time limiting the backstop might pass - if so, don't be surprised if May goes back to Brussels and gets a 10 year backstop limit.
    Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

    Comment


      Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
      A few crucial amendments tomorrow. The one about time limiting the backstop might pass - if so, don't be surprised if May goes back to Brussels and gets a 10 year backstop limit.
      Perhaps - and a border poll after 9.5 years

      Comment


        Looks like May is getting close to securing her deal, the only slight problem is her Deal seems to be different to the one agreed with the EU 27....

        Comment


          She probably feels if she can find something to get Parliament approval on, she can go back to the EU and try to get them to buy in to it
          "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

          Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

          Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

          Comment


            I think that's the case alright, but I also think it's somewhat delusional. On top of what Coveney was saying yesterday, have a look at the comments from Sabine Weyand, which spell out the EU's stance quite clearly. The last comment is pretty damning in its accuracy.

            She said: “We need to have a majority that doesn’t just get agreement over hurdle of a meaningful vote by a narrow majority but we need to have a stable majority to ensure the ratification. That’s quite a big challenge. There’s no negotiation between the UK and EU – that’s finished.

            “There’s no point beating about the bush – the agreement was defeated with a two-thirds majority in the House of Commons. That’s a crushing defeat by any standards. It’s quite a challenge to see how you can construct out of the diversity of opposition a positive majority for a deal.”

            Weyand said of the two years of talks due to end on 29 March: “There’s a very high risk of a crash out not by design, but by accident. Perhaps by the design of article 50, but not by policymakers.”

            “We think we can handle it,” Weyand said. “I’m less sure about UK side. For us it’s about EU-UK trade relationship and disruption to supply chains. For the UK a no deal would mean that a part of the regulatory and supervisory structure of economy breaks away – a much bigger challenge.”

            “We’re not going to reopen the agreement,” Weyand said at the European Policy Centre event. “The result of the negotiation has been very much shaped by the UK negotiators, much more than they actually get credit for. This is a bit like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The backstop was very much shaped by UK.”

            “It feels like Groundhog Day,” Weyand added of others in Westminster calling for a time limit or unilateral exit clause in the backstop. “None of this is new. This has been extensively discussed at the negotiating table amongst the EU27. EU27 were unanimous a time limit to the backstop defeats the purpose of the backstop.”

            Of the suggestion that there was a technological solution for avoiding a hard border, Weyand said: “We looked at every border on this earth, every border EU has with a third country – there’s simply no way you can do away with checks and controls.

            “The negotiators have not been able to explain them to us and that’s not their fault; it’s because they don’t exist.”

            She added that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK and Irish governments would “lose the one operational solution to the Irish border conundrum but we’d be stuck with the same scenario”.

            “So you could imagine a no-deal scenario with the backstop being discussed,” she said.

            Weyand further warned that the debate in Westminster, in which discussions over the rival strengths and weaknesses of Norway and Canada’s relationship to the bloc have recently dominated, appeared at times to be “uninhibited by any knowledge of what is actually in the withdrawal agreement”.

            Tis but a scratch.

            Comment


              Ha! And going back to the latest version of the Graun site after posting the above, I see that the EU has responded already ... Brexit: EU dismisses Tory compromise plan as unworkable

              Brussels sources pointed out the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand, had said technology to avoid a hard border does not exist. “What a cunning plan,” laughed one official. “This is just nonsense,” echoed an EU diplomat.

              Should the hunt for a solution involving technology fail, the so-called safety net proposed by the Tory MPs would involve the EU agreeing to a three-year transition period without there being any agreement on a backstop. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has repeatedly said it is “certain” that without the legally operable backstop, there will be no transition period for the British economy after 29 March.
              That didn't take long!
              Tis but a scratch.

              Comment


                So either a bone is thrown to the British in the form of some time limited backstop (yes I know that is a oxymoron) or it's a no deal.

                My money is still some form of a deal going through but I'm less sure now. No deal would be chaotic for the British, but would also hit Ireland very hard. So in the interests of pragmatism I think a deal will go through.

                The chances of a PV seem very remote now.
                Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                Comment


                  Yvette Cooper's amendment will be backed by Labour. That's the one which would force May to seek a nine-month extension of the 29 March deadline if there is still no deal in place by 26 February. It's being described as having a good chance of passing - assuming it does, that in itself doesn't overturn Brexit, but even though the EU is under no obligation to agree to such an extension I think it at least prevents a no-deal scenario happening. It may provide the wiggle room for a second referendum or a general election (or even a citizens' assembly, even though at the moment I don't think there's enough support for or understanding of the concept to make it happen in that time), which would be the sort of things I think would persuade the EU to grant the extension.
                  Tis but a scratch.

                  Comment


                    I'll be surprised if it passed to be honest. For every Tory who breaks the whip, there is a counter Labour MP who will vote against it.

                    For what's it worth I don't think anything will pass tonight, except more time.
                    Last edited by fitzy73; 29th-January-2019, 15:05.
                    Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                    Comment


                      May is now looking to have another Brexit vote on 14 February with the aim that she can seek "legally binding changes to the backstop". All she's interested in listening to, even now, are her own party. This could work, in a way, as if Cooper's amendment was also passed (probably less likely if May's proposal is carried, but not impossible) then they'd have 12 days to think about the mess they're in as soon as the EU tells May to eff off with her legally binding changes.
                      Tis but a scratch.

                      Comment


                        Peter Kapern, a German political commentator (I think) said in 2017 that Brexit "is the biggest political nonsense since the Roman Emperor Caligula decided to appoint his favourite horse Incitatus as consul"

                        He was wrong, it's far more ludicrous and makes Caligula look quite reasonable by comparison.

                        Be interesting to see where this all ends up.

                        Comment


                          I think Turkmanbasy might have had something to say about that
                          Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                          Comment


                            Corbyn would only support the Cooper amendment if it's for three months, not nine. That narrows the options somewhat.
                            Tis but a scratch.

                            Comment


                              The EU have pre-rejected the Brady amendment. Think it's Norway, regime-change or No Deal now.

                              Comment


                                If it wasn't so serious I'd say its farcical........
                                Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X