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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Ivan Rogers giving it socks.

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      Here's the youtube of the lecture -
      https://youtu.be/-PxpHNXIKnY
      Tis but a scratch.

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        To get an extension, they need all member states and the European Council to agree. The British, and in particular the English, with their misplaced sense of exceptionalism, think they will automatically get an A50 extension.

        I don't see that. They might ask, but unless the British are going to hold a referendum (and the odds to that seem to be receding day by day) then why would the EU grant an extension? So the British can feck about for another 6 months and get nowhere?

        The EU want this done and dusted by the next round of European elections in May. No more can kicking.
        Last edited by fitzy73; 24th-January-2019, 14:31.
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          In other news, JC won't support a People's vote, so the amendment is being dropped.

          https://www.theguardian.com/politics...xit-referendum
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            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
            In other news, JC won't support a People's vote, so the amendment is being dropped.

            https://www.theguardian.com/politics...xit-referendum
            That's the spin from the Neo-SDP but it's horse****. He included the possibility in his own amendment. They're not pushing because they don't have the numbers. And they won't have them even if Corbyn whips. c.40 Labour MPs have said they'll defy such a whip.

            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

              That's the spin from the Neo-SDP but it's horse****. He included the possibility in his own amendment. They're not pushing because they don't have the numbers. And they won't have them even if Corbyn whips. c.40 Labour MPs have said they'll defy such a whip.
              In that case, much like the German car industry not allowing a no deal Brexit to pass, JC is leaving it a little late to support a PV.
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                Yep Mays deal or a no deal, my money is leaning towards a no deal. I think a new centrist party will then have an overall majority at the next election
                Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



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                  Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                  That's the spin from the Neo-SDP but it's horse****. He included the possibility in his own amendment. They're not pushing because they don't have the numbers. And they won't have them even if Corbyn whips. c.40 Labour MPs have said they'll defy such a whip.
                  Balla, we all get that you respect JC more than any centrist, and he is very unfortunate to have come to the leadership at a time when the Tories created this particular mess BUT 'cometh the hour cometh the man'. The triangulation that you lambast Blair for seems to be your only excuse for Corbn's antics. It's time for him to piss or get off the pot for the sake of the UK, for the sake or Ireland and for the sake of progressive people all across the EU who are gearing up for an electoral fight with Orban and Salvini et al

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                    Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                    Balla, we all get that you respect JC more than any centrist, and he is very unfortunate to have come to the leadership at a time when the Tories created this particular mess BUT 'cometh the hour cometh the man'. The triangulation that you lambast Blair for seems to be your only excuse for Corbn's antics. It's time for him to piss or get off the pot for the sake of the UK, for the sake or Ireland and for the sake of progressive people all across the EU who are gearing up for an electoral fight with Orban and Salvini et al
                    I’ve never lambasted Blair for triangulation. I’ve just argued that his calculus is no longer relevant to the electorate and that it had an inbuilt economic flaw.


                    The issue for the PV (which I support) isn’t triangulation. It’s that not enough MPs support it.

                    And I still think Corbyn coming out for Remain would be a strategic error. May is desperately hoping to be able to blame Labour for “blocking Brexit”. Hoping that the Tories inability to deliver is lost in the noise and she and her government are let off the hook.

                    Labour can offer a route forward without that happening. The fact that all of this is being put st Corbyn’s door is shocking, tbh.

                    The pressure should be on May to bring another vote in the HOC. That’s the interruption.

                    At that point, I think Corbyn will push for an extension to A50 and I think there’s a majority for that.

                    And I suspect the EU will grant it rather than see a WTO exit.
                    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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                      Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                      Labour can offer a route forward without that happening. The fact that all of this is being put st Corbyn’s door is shocking, tbh.
                      Almost as if the one thing that unites the PLP, Tories and upper-middle class commentators is...

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                        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                        I’ve never lambasted Blair for triangulation. I’ve just argued that his calculus is no longer relevant to the electorate and that it had an inbuilt economic flaw.


                        The issue for the PV (which I support) isn’t triangulation. It’s that not enough MPs support it.

                        And I still think Corbyn coming out for Remain would be a strategic error. May is desperately hoping to be able to blame Labour for “blocking Brexit”. Hoping that the Tories inability to deliver is lost in the noise and she and her government are let off the hook.

                        Labour can offer a route forward without that happening. The fact that all of this is being put st Corbyn’s door is shocking, tbh.

                        The pressure should be on May to bring another vote in the HOC. That’s the interruption.

                        At that point, I think Corbyn will push for an extension to A50 and I think there’s a majority for that.

                        And I suspect the EU will grant it rather than see a WTO exit.
                        I thought his USP as a politician was his principles: that he is always on the right side of history and that he democratically represents his party. It is clear what the right side of history is on this and that fighting Brexit is fighting the rise of neo-fascism. It is clear what his party wants and yet he remains silent and prevaricates.

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                          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                          I’ve never lambasted Blair for triangulation. I’ve just argued that his calculus is no longer relevant to the electorate and that it had an inbuilt economic flaw.


                          The issue for the PV (which I support) isn’t triangulation. It’s that not enough MPs support it.

                          And I still think Corbyn coming out for Remain would be a strategic error. May is desperately hoping to be able to blame Labour for “blocking Brexit”. Hoping that the Tories inability to deliver is lost in the noise and she and her government are let off the hook.

                          Labour can offer a route forward without that happening. The fact that all of this is being put st Corbyn’s door is shocking, tbh.

                          The pressure should be on May to bring another vote in the HOC. That’s the interruption.

                          At that point, I think Corbyn will push for an extension to A50 and I think there’s a majority for that.

                          And I suspect the EU will grant it rather than see a WTO exit.
                          No one expects JC to come out in support of Remain. Given the decisions made at conference, they do however expect him to come out and support a PV.

                          It's obvious that the Tories aren't going to support a PV so as leader of the opposition he needs to force the issue. Presently there are ~195 MPs who support a PV and it's strongly suggested that JC could add 100 plus to that.

                          All the posturing adds to the confusion. Either support a PV, or don't, but stop sitting on the f**king fence, as time is rapidly running out.

                          Europe will rightly not extend A50 for the British to have another six months of existential polemics.
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                            Originally posted by whimpersnap View Post
                            Almost as if the one thing that unites the PLP, Tories and upper-middle class commentators is...
                            This party politics - apart from being tedious beyond, is trumping the National interest. Give MPs of all parties a free vote on all options and the reasonable middle ground will be located - and the unreasonable rumps ignored.

                            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                            Originally Posted by mr chips
                            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

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                              May's negotiations with all other parties has resulted in her calling for changes to the Withdrawal Agreement in line with the DUP and the ERG's wishes. The laughable charade-parade of party, business and union leaders who went in and out of her door was just political dressage. Wednesday, she'll be back to the EU with the same strategy she tried in December. Will no-deal blackmail be any more successful this time?

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                                No.

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