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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

    I really don't think that's the problem. I don't think Labour's position is being stymied by Corbyn being secretly committed to Brexit.

    I think the problem is that he's quite agnostic about it.

    People assessing Labour's current position in the polls etc are oblivious to the driving mindset that's at the core of his leadership group. The Labour Left hasn't been this close to power in 40 years.

    They see this as possibly a once in a lifetime opportunity for a group who have spent their entire political careers on the margins of British politics.

    Brexit for Corbyn, I think, is a distraction.

    The calculus of the Milne line (and again it's just an informed guess) is that if a soft rather than hard Brexit emerges, then the focus of UK politics will switch back to domestic issues and those Labour remainers will vote Labour anyway.


    Personally, I think it's a miscalculation. I think that in particular they've underestimated the impact of the Brexit issue on the youth vote.

    But the confounding issue here is that Corbyn, ultimately, is seeking to triangulate on the issue with a view solely to gaining a left wing government in the UK. And he'll take that in or out of the EU.
    Having worked in the EU institutions, I have a reasonably good understanding of what makes the EU tick, current and changing dynamics etc plus some of the historynotably in respect of the perception of the U.K. pushing for expansion and then refusing to pay for it.

    I really don’t fully grasp English politics - these are good insights on what is happening in labour (and something which goes back decades)..

    Maybe you are right on Corbyn - perhaps he is just agnostic on the issue and power is his goal. And perhaps he is taking the calculated gamble that a soft Brexit with a transition is not the end of the world (and he is right economically). I also agree with you that the younger voters will see this as a betrayal as they will lose freedom of movement, roaming, EU rights they never realised they had - this is the ‘issue of a generation’ and his lack of leadership/agnostic position will harm his and may well be what keeps him away from power.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Jenta View Post

      I'd agree that Corbyn's primary goal is a left wing government but I think you underestimate how much the Labour left sees the EU as a barrier to effective left wing governance. Despite its rebranding over the past couple of years the EU is still an economically neo-liberal enterprise. I think Corbyn recognises that a Norway model would make his manifesto far easier to implement, given that restrictive rules on state aid would be out of the way.
      Those restrictive rules are a bit of a myth though. All of the elements that Labour is looking at are commonplace in other EU states.

      But, even admitting that there's a "Lexit" school of thought and has been right back to Benn, I think it's secondary.

      If Corbyn thought either position would lead to a Labour Govt he'd commit to it, imo.

      The calculus right now (much like the Blairite project, and probably just as cynical) is that left leaning remainers have got no where else to go, electorally.

      I don't know if the PLP will wear it though.
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment


        Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

        Having worked in the EU institutions, I have a reasonably good understanding of what makes the EU tick, current and changing dynamics etc plus some of the historynotably in respect of the perception of the U.K. pushing for expansion and then refusing to pay for it.

        I really don’t fully grasp English politics - these are good insights on what is happening in labour (and something which goes back decades)..

        Maybe you are right on Corbyn - perhaps he is just agnostic on the issue and power is his goal. And perhaps he is taking the calculated gamble that a soft Brexit with a transition is not the end of the world (and he is right economically). I also agree with you that the younger voters will see this as a betrayal as they will lose freedom of movement, roaming, EU rights they never realised they had - this is the ‘issue of a generation’ and his lack of leadership/agnostic position will harm his and may well be what keeps him away from power.
        It's an underplayed dynamic in coverage, imo.


        So when centrists jump up and down and say Labour should be 20 points ahead (which is politically innumerate, but that's beside the point), they're failing to see the world through the eyes of the Labour Left.

        Sitting in Corbyn's seat, or McDonnell's, they see something that they were told for 20 years was impossible - a left wing govt on a platform of rolling back university fees, nationalisation, active industrial policy etc at 40+ in the polls, and neck and neck with the Tories.

        This looks like a failure to Blairites, but its a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the Corbynite project.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

        Comment



          Might just be the Twitterati, but rumours flying around of a snap GE on Feb 28th. A number of Tory ministers have already told their CLPs to start winding up.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
            Might just be the Twitterati, but rumours flying around of a snap GE on Feb 28th. A number of Tory ministers have already told their CLPs to start winding up.
            How will that fly with May’s intention not to lead them into another election? Or perhaps a tactic to focus the minds of the Brexiteers on Monday.

            Comment


              Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

              How will that fly with May’s intention not to lead them into another election? Or perhaps a tactic to focus the minds of the Brexiteers on Monday.
              It wouldn't, but you can't believe a single word that comes out of the woman's mouth.

              I'd be surprised though. She can't be feeling confident, surely? She's got her DUP prop in place. It would require a very ambitious mindset to think that she's going to emerge in a stronger position.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                It wouldn't, but you can't believe a single word that comes out of the woman's mouth.

                I'd be surprised though. She can't be feeling confident, surely? She's got her DUP prop in place. It would require a very ambitious mindset to think that she's going to emerge in a stronger position.
                Which sounds tactical - Rees-Mogg said this week that he would accept a bad deal with an even softer Brexit rather than risk a Labour Govt.

                Comment


                  Give all MPs a free vote on all options.
                  ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                  Originally Posted by mr chips
                  AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                    Those restrictive rules are a bit of a myth though. All of the elements that Labour is looking at are commonplace in other EU states.

                    But, even admitting that there's a "Lexit" school of thought and has been right back to Benn, I think it's secondary.

                    If Corbyn thought either position would lead to a Labour Govt he'd commit to it, imo.

                    The calculus right now (much like the Blairite project, and probably just as cynical) is that left leaning remainers have got no where else to go, electorally.

                    I don't know if the PLP will wear it though.
                    The restrictive nature of state aid rules is somewhat overstated but I still think it's enough to sway Corbyn towards favouring a soft exit, especially when combined with his various other issues with the nature of the EU.

                    At this stage, imo, there is a much clearer path to a majority for Labour in backing the PV so there has to be a significant reason for him not backing it. I suppose the electoral map and the threat of major resignations are factors too. Christ knows at this stage.
                    "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Jenta View Post



                      At this stage, imo, there is a much clearer path to a majority for Labour in backing the PV
                      And that's where they'd disagree with you. Ball park, and it clearly varies from constituency to constituency, 70% or so of Labour voters and members voted remain.

                      So, definitely the majority. But a sizeable chunk of Brexiteers that are a threat to a swathe of marginals.

                      From there, the electoral rock/paper/scissors that they're working on says:

                      Tory remainers won't vote Labour (a fair assumption)

                      Labour Brexit voters, particularly in the North, may either not turn out at all, or vote UKIP. There's been signs of that previously.

                      Labour remainers, in the event of a soft Brexit, will still turn out and vote against the Tories.



                      If all of that holds, then coming out as strongly anti is a risky stance.


                      I think that Labour are probably right not to trust Tory remainers. I think they're possibly under estimating the response of their own Remain voters though.


                      My hope is that Starmer can force a line towards a PV at least. I think the talk of a GE is probably kite flying by the Tories. But if there is a GE, Labour will have to solidify opinion.


                      Corbyn has done a reasonable job of allowing Labour to be the vehicle for those hoping for a range of different outcomes.


                      But I think he's going to have to get off the fence shortly.

                      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                      Comment


                        Polling in the Guardian today:

                        ​​​​​​If Labour opposes Brexit,

                        - 11% Labour voters less likely to vote for them

                        - 9% Tory voters more likely to vote for them

                        - 39% Lib Dems more likely to vote for them

                        - 40% Greens more likely to vote them


                        Those high percentages of Green and LD votes amount to not many people at the moment.
                        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                        Comment


                          I don't think calling for a PV is necessarily opposing brexit, it's giving people the choice of the type of brexit the country will pursue. I think that could play well as a "once and for all" type platform. Giving people direct control over their destiny can be a powerful vote getter, as Cameron could tell you.

                          One way or another, in the event of an extension/GE, they're going to have to pick a lane. Id worry that if that lane is ultra soft brexit they could be destroyed.
                          "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                          Comment



                            I’d agree in theory, and still hope that Labour can crack the trick of presenting the PV as a neutral, decision making process.


                            But the split in the UK is marked. Remainers want one, leavers don’t.
                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                              Polling in the Guardian today:

                              ​​​​​​If Labour opposes Brexit,

                              - 11% Labour voters less likely to vote for them

                              - 9% Tory voters more likely to vote for them

                              - 39% Lib Dems more likely to vote for them

                              - 40% Greens more likely to vote them


                              Those high percentages of Green and LD votes amount to not many people at the moment.
                              I don’t think the figures actually figure into it
                              Corbyn doesn’t like the EU (rich mans club etc)
                              he is, if nothing else, a man of conviction - whether you agree with those convictions or not

                              as pointed out on the radio last night, JC is like a benign dictator, he’s dictatorial over his own party and fairly benign to the tories

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by plastic View Post

                                I don’t think the figures actually figure into it
                                Corbyn doesn’t like the EU (rich mans club etc)
                                he is, if nothing else, a man of conviction - whether you agree with those convictions or not

                                as pointed out on the radio last night, JC is like a benign dictator, he’s dictatorial over his own party and fairly benign to the tories

                                It will be tested on this issue, but his track record so far suggests that he's a fairly committed party democrat. On Trident, for instance, he's not imposed policy on the party.

                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                                Comment

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