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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
    May's deal voted down by 432-202

    Corbyn's tabled a vote of no confidence for tomorrow, co-sponsored by SNP, Lib Dems, Green, Plaid Cymru.

    Down to Tory rebels and DUP now.
    FUBAR

    DUP will support May.

    Comment



      Options now remaining:

      No Deal Exit

      Remain (would require a public vote)

      Extension of A50 while one of the above is chosen

      Whatever Labour says, there's no path to a re-hashed negotiation from here, even if Corbyn wins a GE.
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment


        Or the EU decides ‘No deal’ - good luck and thanks.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
          Options now remaining:

          No Deal Exit

          Remain (would require a public vote)

          Extension of A50 while one of the above is chosen

          Whatever Labour says, there's no path to a re-hashed negotiation from here, even if Corbyn wins a GE.

          Of the two options I’m starting to think that another vote would yield the same result, even with a higher margin of victory, and therefore a NO deal exit is inevitable, which I have always felt was going to be the case, you couldn’t get a room full of politicians to agree on the time let alone getting UK politicians and European leaders to agree on a complex agreement like this.

          Whats surprising is the low levels of backlash against the politicians, I’m surprised the people are not more frustrated with the governance they are under.

          Comment


            The EU rightfully will not bend in the backstop and will not give an end date. The British cannot get a majority together without a backstop end date.

            I'm not sure why May is even bothering to go cross party to try to get a consensus. This is the best deal they will get (bar staying) and no amount of haggling cross party will get them into a better place.

            It's either people's vote or no deal. Right now no deal looks favourite.
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            Comment


              Oddly I've been thinking about the night of the state guarantee here all those years ago and the tangible fear we all suffered in the months after. Ajay Chopra passing the homeless man etc.

              Without seeming arrogant we've managed to get ourselves back to full fitness from bankruptcy in lightning time, whereas our more wordly and powerful neighbours have recently been acting like dopes frankly and are in a bad bad place tonight

              We thought Chopra was the boogieman and in fact he was the start of our redemption. It's sad to see the UK inflict such lasting wounds on itself
              I am the million man.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
                Oddly I've been thinking about the night of the state guarantee here all those years ago and the tangible fear we all suffered in the months after. Ajay Chopra passing the homeless man etc.

                Without seeming arrogant we've managed to get ourselves back to full fitness from bankruptcy in lightning time, whereas our more wordly and powerful neighbours have recently been acting like dopes frankly and are in a bad bad place tonight

                We thought Chopra was the boogieman and in fact he was the start of our redemption. It's sad to see the UK inflict such lasting wounds on itself
                Many people at the time were mightily relieved that the FF/Green Government lost their effective power. They were in la la land and in paralysis. The Troika was clearly the only decision at that time as we were spiralling out of control and boxed into a corner.

                The UK is intoxicated by its own perception of its strength. The lever from the EU will be no renegotiation. They do not believe they can offer the UK anything which maintains the integrity of the EU and the long term interests of its members and will satisfy Labour and the Brexiteers.

                The you have a strange opposition party which is power hungry and strategy poor. And does not know what it wants.

                We are in stalemate. The leverage that the EU and the International commmunity had over Ireland in those dark days does not exist right now with the UK.

                So will leverage emerge to force either a people’s vote or provide enough comfort to the EU to offer an extension?

                Perhaps the markets over the next week will go crazy, Sterling loses more value and UK borrowing costs go through the roof at the prospect of a no deal supported by EU intransigence that it went as far as it possibly could.
                Last edited by The Last Stand; 15th-January-2019, 20:02.

                Comment


                  Pound went up following the vote indicates markets still betting against a no deal.

                  Great that the Brexiteers have probably voted to kill of Brexit.

                  Looking forward to Jacob and Boris etc al being interviewed if Brexit abandoned and asked if they have any regrets for voting against it.
                  ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                  Originally Posted by mr chips
                  AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post
                    Pound went up following the vote indicates markets still betting against a no deal.

                    Great that the Brexiteers have probably voted to kill of Brexit.

                    Looking forward to Jacob and Boris etc al being interviewed if Brexit abandoned and asked if they have any regrets for voting against it.
                    I wish you were right but Corbyn/Labour are not showing leadership. The confidence vote will be lost tomorrow so no possibility of a GE. What is the Labour plan B?

                    The default in the absence of no agreement on a withdrawal agreement is that the UK goes off a cliff... they need to decide what they can agree on as the HOC and go to the EU with that. And the other side will still determine whether it is a deal they will accept or not. And this is only to get to the end of the beginning.
                    Last edited by The Last Stand; 15th-January-2019, 20:36.

                    Comment


                      The no confidence vote will be lost, and then we will find out where Labour stand. If, and it's a big if, JC supports a people's vote, I'm still am very doubtful that a vote for it would pass in the HoC.

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                      Comment


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                        "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                        Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                        Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                        Comment


                          ERG group and DUP say they will support may so everyone presumes she will win vote.
                          wondering though would some hardline remainers within the tories ranks look at situation and put country before party and abstain thus bringing down their own gov .
                          unlikely but they could pressure her to emphatically rule out no deal and get her to go for softer brexit in return for their support ,maybe even get her to look again at second referendum .

                          if she were to lose vote ,then the gov dosent fall the gov has 14 days to try to regain a majority but labour too has a chance within same timeframe to prove it can command a majority .
                          Last edited by theghost; 15th-January-2019, 23:14.
                          Still there's a light I hold before me
                          You're the measure of my dreams
                          The measure of my dreams.

                          Comment


                            If
                            Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                            I wish you were right but Corbyn/Labour are not showing leadership. The confidence vote will be lost tomorrow so no possibility of a GE. What is the Labour plan B?

                            The default in the absence of no agreement on a withdrawal agreement is that the UK goes off a cliff... they need to decide what they can agree on as the HOC and go to the EU with that. And the other side will still determine whether it is a deal they will accept or not. And this is only to get to the end of the beginning.
                            What do you mean by showing leadership? If it weren’t for Labour, the vote last night might not have happened at all. It’s been Labour amendments that have ensured Parliamentary scrutiny at every stage. Last night was the “meaningful vote” that the govt did everything it could to avoid.

                            People keep suggesting that Labour doesn’t have a position. It’s position has been clear - vote down May’s vote (now done), vote if no confidence (will happen today).

                            Thst policy was always sequential, and what came next dependant on outcomes.

                            I don’t think Labour will won a vote of no confidence today, which imo will bring it a step closer to calling for a another public vote.

                            And i think Remain will win that vote, because the reality of Brexit has now been laid bare.

                            If Leave thought they’d win a second vote, they wouldn’t be running from it. But it’s now clear that the “leave” camp contains different groups with irreconcilable differences.

                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                              I wish you were right but Corbyn/Labour are not showing leadership. The confidence vote will be lost tomorrow so no possibility of a GE. What is the Labour plan B?

                              The default in the absence of no agreement on a withdrawal agreement is that the UK goes off a cliff... they need to decide what they can agree on as the HOC and go to the EU with that. And the other side will still determine whether it is a deal they will accept or not. And this is only to get to the end of the beginning.
                              Corbyn's plan of waiting until the Tories have imploded has now run its course and he will now have to 'show leadership' as you say .Another pointless vote today wasting more time.

                              My confidence is simply based on one major factor, which is a bit counter intuitive given the behaviour in the HOC - that there are enough sensible people to avoid a No Deal. I think the markets non wobbling supports this view.

                              Quite how the legislation to avoid a no deal will be cobbled together remains to be seen but at least there is the will, if not yet the way.


                              Last edited by AdolphusGrigson; 16th-January-2019, 06:38.
                              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                              Originally Posted by mr chips
                              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post
                                Pound went up following the vote indicates markets still betting against a no deal.

                                Great that the Brexiteers have probably voted to kill of Brexit.

                                Looking forward to Jacob and Boris etc al being interviewed if Brexit abandoned and asked if they have any regrets for voting against it.
                                May’s Deal was the ERG’s chance to get out of the EU. They have rejected it and I am increasingly convinced we will see a second referendum and the UK stay in the EU. What a bunch of f’cking idiots!!!

                                Comment

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