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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by scotscor View Post

    I just dont see the optimism. They need to vote for something to stop a no deal. Failing to do that and the default happens
    The optimism is based on the majority in parliament against a No Deal and that until May's deal is defeated in the Commons Labour and Tory moderates wont/cant put forward an alternative.

    Once that is out of the way the government will be edged towards legislating for some sort of alternative to No deal. Not a given but the most likely scenario.

    ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

    Originally Posted by mr chips
    AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

    Comment


      If the ERG vote her deal down I think May might say “Nanny has warned and warned you what would happen if you didn’t do as you are told, now she has had enough and is going to offer a free vote on a second referendum.” Quite what Corbyn and Labour would do in that circumstance would be very interesting. The complete and utter stupidity of the ERG’s position is that a vote for May’s Deal would utterly ruin the Labour Party.

      Comment


        If the government head towards no deal, there will be an open revolt and they will no longer be the government. The mini-rebellions have indicated that. So the government or others have to do something that can gain widespread support. If May refuses to do anything and then loses a confidence vote that plunges the country into no-deal without a government in situ, she condemns the Tory party to a defeat and possibly a split. She is a notoriously poor strategist, but even she wouldn't make that mistake I think.

        Comment


          Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
          If the government head towards no deal, there will be an open revolt and they will no longer be the government. The mini-rebellions have indicated that. So the government or others have to do something that can gain widespread support. If May refuses to do anything and then loses a confidence vote that plunges the country into no-deal without a government in situ, she condemns the Tory party to a defeat and possibly a split. She is a notoriously poor strategist, but even she wouldn't make that mistake I think.
          No Deal is out of the question now, imho. I think it is May’s Deal or a second referendum, and I think she might just pull the plug on the DUP and the ERG if they don’t back her deal.

          Comment


            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

            No Deal is out of the question now, imho. I think it is May’s Deal or a second referendum, and I think she might just pull the plug on the DUP and the ERG if they don’t back her deal.
            To actually produce a way forward would require a Proportional Representation style vote with second preferences counted. Second referendum wouldn't win in a straight vote. Neither would Norway. So it's an extension to A50 and a general election for me.

            Comment


              Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

              To actually produce a way forward would require a Proportional Representation style vote with second preferences counted. Second referendum wouldn't win in a straight vote. Neither would Norway. So it's an extension to A50 and a general election for me.
              do they have the votes for either of those?
              Mays deal is rejected 400 - 200
              Mays deal is rejected again 400-200
              Morgan proposes an extension to article 50, rejected by 310 -290
              Motion of no confidence by Labour - rejected 310 - 290
              Second referendum vote rejected 310 - 290
              Norway plus proposal rejected 310-290

              No deal happens without anyone voting for it.
              Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



              Comment


                Originally posted by scotscor View Post

                do they have the votes for either of those?
                Mays deal is rejected 400 - 200
                Mays deal is rejected again 400-200
                Morgan proposes an extension to article 50, rejected by 310 -290
                Motion of no confidence by Labour - rejected 310 - 290
                Second referendum vote rejected 310 - 290
                Norway plus proposal rejected 310-290

                No deal happens without anyone voting for it.
                Of the 300-310 who voted for Grieve's amendment earlier this week who exactly is it that you think would vote against a motion calling for a second referendum? I'm not saying you are wrong i just don't know precisely why those who voted for Grieve this week would vote against a second referendum 2 weeks from now.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by scotscor View Post

                  do they have the votes for either of those?
                  Mays deal is rejected 400 - 200
                  Mays deal is rejected again 400-200
                  Morgan proposes an extension to article 50, rejected by 310 -290
                  Motion of no confidence by Labour - rejected 310 - 290
                  Second referendum vote rejected 310 - 290
                  Norway plus proposal rejected 310-290

                  No deal happens without anyone voting for it.
                  All alternative solutions (and probably May's solution) require an extension to Article 50. So that would win a vote. As it is not a solution in itself, it would attract at least the same number of votes as the Grieve amendment. If no future solution wins a majority, then a confidence vote that brings down the government would probably succeed.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                    All alternative solutions (and probably May's solution) require an extension to Article 50. So that would win a vote. As it is not a solution in itself, it would attract at least the same number of votes as the Grieve amendment. If no future solution wins a majority, then a confidence vote that brings down the government would probably succeed.
                    Under the fixed term parliament act it is very unlikely a confidence vote would bring down the government and prompt a GE. If May resigns there will be a new Tory PM but there won’t be a GE.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                      Under the fixed term parliament act it is very unlikely a confidence vote would bring down the government and prompt a GE. If May resigns there will be a new Tory PM but there won’t be a GE.
                      A government would have 14 days to win a second confidence vote. It is hugely unlikely that they would, as any new government would have the same problems as the previous one, i.e. not having a majority.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                        Of the 300-310 who voted for Grieve's amendment earlier this week who exactly is it that you think would vote against a motion calling for a second referendum? I'm not saying you are wrong i just don't know precisely why those who voted for Grieve this week would vote against a second referendum 2 weeks from now.
                        Corbyn for one
                        Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                        Comment


                          Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                          A government would have 14 days to win a second confidence vote. It is hugely unlikely that they would, as any new government would have the same problems as the previous one, i.e. not having a majority.
                          Do you really think the DUP are going to facilitate Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell getting into Downing St? If they do, I hope they have hooked Paisley’s grave up the grid as the centrifugal force would power the world.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                            To actually produce a way forward would require a Proportional Representation style vote with second preferences counted. Second referendum wouldn't win in a straight vote. Neither would Norway. So it's an extension to A50 and a general election for me.
                            A GE is the absolute last thing that will happen.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                              Do you really think the DUP are going to facilitate Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell getting into Downing St? If they do, I hope they have hooked Paisley’s grave up the grid as the centrifugal force would power the world.
                              Not the DUP, the MPs who voted against the government last week. If they see no deal being seriously considered, they will vote the government out.

                              Comment


                                Mays deal is going to be voted down by 100 votes imho.

                                As has been pointed out by a few of us, parliament then have to actually vote in favour of something this week. And even then a vote in favour of a GE needs a 2/3rds majority.

                                There are plenty of MPs saying what they don't want but very little consensus on what they do want.
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                                Comment

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