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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    The government defeats engineered by Grieve, Soubry, Wollaston at al have doomed Theresa May as there is now no realistic threat of no deal. MPs can vote against her negotiated WA without worrying that the sky will fall in.

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      Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

      But he knows he can't win a GE without at least an olive branch to the Remain platform.

      If a GE were called tomorrow, the LDs would proclaim that their aim was to be the PV champion in a kingmaker position, and they'd soak pro-remain votes.

      The only way Labour wins a GE is to say "We'll negotiate a better deal, and put that back to the people in a second vote, and honour the outcome".

      There's no other way of holding its electoral coalition together.
      You might want to tell that to Barry Gardiner.

      https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rexit-deadlock
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      Comment


        Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
        The government defeats engineered by Grieve, Soubry, Wollaston at al have doomed Theresa May as there is now no realistic threat of no deal. MPs can vote against her negotiated WA without worrying that the sky will fall in.
        The people May needs to get on side relish the prospect of No Deal. The amendments mean she now has the considerable leverage of threatening a second referendum which terrifies ERG and the DUP.

        Comment


          Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
          The government defeats engineered by Grieve, Soubry, Wollaston at al have doomed Theresa May as there is now no realistic threat of no deal. MPs can vote against her negotiated WA without worrying that the sky will fall in.
          They have to vote for something though. They can vote against her WA even on a piecemeal basis, but unless they vote for something it's a waste of time.

          Even voting for something - like limiting the backstop - doesn't get them off the hook. It would be against the WA and the EU rightfully aren't going to budge on that.

          I'm not getting where the confidence for a no deal is coming from to be honest. Right now that's actually what's going to happen. Clever amendments don't chance that fact.

          It'll take either the Tories or Labour or both to split to stop a no deal.
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          Comment


            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

            You might want to tell that to Barry Gardiner.

            https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rexit-deadlock
            They'll call for a GE first, and move a vote of no confidence. That's the policy agreed at conference.

            2 things matter:

            If they get a GE, what's their policy going to the country? Conference policy is that a People's Vote is on the table

            If they don't get a GE, what's the next step? Again, conference says a PV is possible.


            Conference didn't commit Labour to a PV in the event that they don't get a GE, but I don't see another step.

            They may not get Remainer Tories to bring down the Govt, but I think they'd get their votes for a PV.


            It's possible that the Tory rebels are ****ed off enough to trigger a GE though. Then all bets are off.

            Can May take her deal to the country having refused to put it before Parliament as long as possible? Or does she go to the country on No Deal? I don't think she can win a GE on either of those platforms.

            I don't think the electoral maths will allow Labour to win a majority in a GE, and any support from LDs, SDP and Greens is going to be conditional on a 2nd vote.


            Totally uncharted territory though, and the UK doesn't want to seem to admit that it is in the midst of a constitutional crisis. It is being governed by a minority govt that cannot pass its business. By all precedent, May should have resigned already.
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Jesus wept
              "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

              Comment


                May has made a commitment not to fight the next GE....

                Comment


                  Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                  May has made a commitment not to fight the next GE....
                  She weasel worded that commitment though to be about a GE held at the end of a fixed term parliament (2021 I think). If there was a GE this year she would have given herself enough wiggle room to fight it.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                    The people May needs to get on side relish the prospect of No Deal. The amendments mean she now has the considerable leverage of threatening a second referendum which terrifies ERG and the DUP.
                    The DUP will definitely vote against it, unless the backstop is removed. The ERG will almost certainly vote against it to remove May. The next Tory leader is a Brexiter. The amendments only open the possibility of a second referendum. Defeat on the deal vote makes May's resignation inevitable. And in any case, the ERG would relish a second referendum. Or a general election with the Tories being the true party of Brexit.

                    Comment


                      I despair of Labour. They need a position on Brexit, 'Brexit with a better nebulous deal' is bull. They need to stand up for the 55% who don't want to leave, yes they will lose seats in middle England. But they will more than make that back in other areas. They need to isolate the tories as the party of the old and dying. Brexit can be the tool for that.
                      Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                      Comment


                        Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                        They have to vote for something though. They can vote against her WA even on a piecemeal basis, but unless they vote for something it's a waste of time.

                        Even voting for something - like limiting the backstop - doesn't get them off the hook. It would be against the WA and the EU rightfully aren't going to budge on that.

                        I'm not getting where the confidence for a no deal is coming from to be honest. Right now that's actually what's going to happen. Clever amendments don't chance that fact.

                        It'll take either the Tories or Labour or both to split to stop a no deal.
                        Starmer has said a request for an extension of A50 is what Labour want. All other potential solutions require that extension, as there is not enough time to agree an alternative to the WA with the EU. May has lost control of the process, so that extension is now possible. With the government's response to the defeat being amendable, all other solutions will be in play. And if no agreement is possible on these, the response could be to seek an extension and call an election. However it turns out, the government cannot run down the clock any more, at least not without a majority to back them doing it.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                          She weasel worded that commitment though to be about a GE held at the end of a fixed term parliament (2021 I think). If there was a GE this year she would have given herself enough wiggle room to fight it.
                          No one else would want the job anyway.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by scotscor View Post
                            I despair of Labour. They need a position on Brexit, 'Brexit with a better nebulous deal' is bull. They need to stand up for the 55% who don't want to leave, yes they will lose seats in middle England. But they will more than make that back in other areas. They need to isolate the tories as the party of the old and dying. Brexit can be the tool for that.
                            I don't get it. I think the Labour position is pretty clear and was repeated by Corbyn today: Access to the single market and in a customs union that the EU is happy enough with to prevent a return to the border in Ireland, plus the maintenance of EU worker rights and environment standards.

                            Pretty much business as usual but without the hassle of travelling to Brussels to make the rules.

                            Corbyn would be crazy not to recognise that a referendum happened.
                            Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by rathbaner View Post

                              I don't get it. I think the Labour position is pretty clear and was repeated by Corbyn today: Access to the single market and in a customs union that the EU is happy enough with to prevent a return to the border in Ireland, plus the maintenance of EU worker rights and environment standards.

                              Pretty much business as usual but without the hassle of travelling to Brussels to make the rules.

                              Corbyn would be crazy not to recognise that a referendum happened.
                              And what is he going to do on FOM?

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                                And what is he going to do on FOM?
                                That's gone AFAIK. But according to the Guardian's reading of his speech, he's just not that interested in the EU. Here's what he said:
                                The truth is, the real divide in our country is not between those who voted to remain in the EU and those who voted to leave. It is between the many – who do the work, who create the wealth and pay their taxes, and the few – who set the rules, who reap the rewards and so often dodge taxes ...

                                People across the country, whether they voted leave or remain know that the system isn’t working for them.

                                Some see the EU as a defence against insecurity and hostility. Others see the EU as part of an establishment that plunged them into insecurity and hostility in the first place.

                                But it’s the failed system rigged against the many to protect the interests of the few that is the real cause of inequality and insecurity whether it’s in Tottenham or Mansfield ...

                                Because for both sides the EU referendum was about much more than our relationship with our biggest trading partner and its rules.

                                It was about what has happened to our people over decades and how to build a better future.

                                That's how he'd fight a GE.
                                Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

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