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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
    All's fair in love & war when the May continues to put self-interest ahead of parliament. She's more wriggly than a maggot. That vote should have been held three weeks ago.
    Tis but a scratch.

    Comment



      Canr agree with that guardian article. Remain has nothing to do with it. From the Speaker’s perspective, the Govt were using procedural measures to railroad the house.

      The less ability the executive has has to do that the better.
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment


        Originally posted by Cowboy View Post

        Move back to Limmers boss, jerbs jerbs jerbs! we all have jerbs
        I can't deal with the rain!
        Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

        Comment


          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

          I think this week has shown that no-deal is a non-runner. There is a clear majority in the HoC that will block it and a speaker that will allow them.

          To call a general election she would need to have the approval of the House under the Fixed Term Parliament act. I can see Corbyn being happy to give her a GE but Starmer would insist on an A50 extension before the house rose.

          Corbyn and McDonnell are smart enough to know that they couldn't fight a general election with Starmer, Khan and the SNP accusing them of being careerists who put their own fantasy of power ahead of the national interest. They have also both been around long enough to know that the best case scenario then would be a hung parliament needing SNP support to enter number 10 only to govern over a country that has just crashed out with no deal, has massively eroded its tax base, where unemployment or underemployment jumps up particularly in areas with low outward mobility and whose currency has just plummeted in value.

          In short the DUP and ERG have been snookered. My biggest fear now is that enough of the ERG decide that May's deal is a better bet than they alternative but it's still unlikely to be enough to get her over the line.
          Ordinarily I would agree but these are extraordinary times. After next Thesday May has nothing left except her base. And they want a no deal. If she steps down it's a nailed on no deal.

          I'm afriad I have to disagree about Labour. Corbyn will absolutely take a GE without an A50 extension. It's his stated policy to take a GE before anything else. He isn't exactly the most pro European opposition leader and at a fundamental level he believes it would be easier to implement his policies outside of EU.



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            It has seemed obvious that Grieve would come to May's rescue and today saw the latest stage of that.

            May does not want a no deal and as long as she shows she tried to do the Brexit thing she cant be blamed if Brexit doesn't take place. If Brexit fails, Grieve takes the credit for saving the country from those who wanted it saved and May escapes the blame which will be piled on the hard line Brexiteers for not voting May's deal though.

            Very good day for May and for Remain and especially the Speaker who has played an absolute blinder.

            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

            Originally Posted by mr chips
            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

            Comment


              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

              Ordinarily I would agree but these are extraordinary times. After next Thesday May has nothing left except her base. And they want a no deal. If she steps down it's a nailed on no deal.

              I'm afriad I have to disagree about Labour. Corbyn will absolutely take a GE without an A50 extension. It's his stated policy to take a GE before anything else. He isn't exactly the most pro European opposition leader and at a fundamental level he believes it would be easier to implement his policies outside of EU.


              But he knows he can't win a GE without at least an olive branch to the Remain platform.

              If a GE were called tomorrow, the LDs would proclaim that their aim was to be the PV champion in a kingmaker position, and they'd soak pro-remain votes.

              The only way Labour wins a GE is to say "We'll negotiate a better deal, and put that back to the people in a second vote, and honour the outcome".

              There's no other way of holding its electoral coalition together.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Comment


                  Can I presume right that Kate Hoey voted with the Government?

                  Comment


                    Today's vote was surely the death rattle for the government. When they lose Tuesday's vote that's it, the UK has a zombie executive. It then becomes a question of whether parliament can come together to combat the zombie menace or whether they ask for an extension of article 50 and schedule an election. There is a majority against no-deal, so the likelihood of an election prior to an extension is low.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post
                      It has seemed obvious that Grieve would come to May's rescue and today saw the latest stage of that.

                      May does not want a no deal and as long as she shows she tried to do the Brexit thing she cant be blamed if Brexit doesn't take place. If Brexit fails, Grieve takes the credit for saving the country from those who wanted it saved and May escapes the blame which will be piled on the hard line Brexiteers for not voting May's deal though.

                      Very good day for May and for Remain and especially the Speaker who has played an absolute blinder.
                      Grieve has done May a huge favour. The Swire amendment will also help her over the line and realistically, if she manages the seemingly impossible and gets her deal through I can’t see the 27 turning around and saying sorry, that amendment changes everything, the deals off and it is over the cliff we all go. The key is whether she can get the DUP to not, enthusiastically, cut off their collective nose to spite their face which not many have managed to achieve. I do think it is interesting that the bould Arlene seems to have gone to ground but then that might be wishful thinking on my part. Whatever, I think she will go for a second referendum before she goes to the country although I think even this incompetent government would beat Corbyn/ McDonnell in a GE. I still think there will be a last minute reversal but I cannot see me needing to dig into my No Deal stockpile of tinned tomatoes!?!? It is May’s Deal or Remain now, imho, Grieve has given her and the Tories a partial out and piled massive pressure onto Labour, imho.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
                        Today's vote was surely the death rattle for the government. When they lose Tuesday's vote that's it, the UK has a zombie executive. It then becomes a question of whether parliament can come together to combat the zombie menace or whether they ask for an extension of article 50 and schedule an election. There is a majority against no-deal, so the likelihood of an election prior to an extension is low.
                        The fixed term parliament act makes it very hard to remove a government. The Tories can’t get rid of her themselves and the threat of a second referendum could very well see the ERG/ DUP cut their losses because No Deal isn’t going to happen, imho.

                        Comment


                          Best case scenario is that parliament finds a majority for some way forward. Norway plus is probably the most popular alternative to May's deal but it may not have a majority. If there were some kind of agreement that a free vote would be followed by an election, a majority-backed solution is possible. But that is difficult to engineer.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                            Grieve has done May a huge favour. The Swire amendment will also help her over the line and realistically, if she manages the seemingly impossible and gets her deal through I can’t see the 27 turning around and saying sorry, that amendment changes everything, the deals off and it is over the cliff we all go. The key is whether she can get the DUP to not, enthusiastically, cut off their collective nose to spite their face which not many have managed to achieve. I do think it is interesting that the bould Arlene seems to have gone to ground but then that might be wishful thinking on my part. Whatever, I think she will go for a second referendum before she goes to the country although I think even this incompetent government would beat Corbyn/ McDonnell in a GE. I still think there will be a last minute reversal but I cannot see me needing to dig into my No Deal stockpile of tinned tomatoes!?!? It is May’s Deal or Remain now, imho, Grieve has given her and the Tories a partial out and piled massive pressure onto Labour, imho.
                            It is more than likely that May has discussed all this privately with Grieve as it has been obvious for over a year that the DUP cant swallow the backstop and the EU(prompted by Ireland) cant swallow Brexit without the backstop.

                            I have to admit to serious Brexit fatigue and just waiting now until the deal is rejected by parliament. The only serious worry is perhaps the Brexiteers might join unexpectedly with Labour and vote down the government - if it looks like we are heading towards a delay in Brexit - as a Right wing Tory party could just get returned and crash out - assuming May resigned - but that seems unlikely - at this point at least.

                            I think there has been a switch in Labour policy from pretending they can negotiate a better deal towards delaying Brexit- which is to be welcomed - but as you say to be behind in the polls given the pigs Mickey the Tories have made out of Brexit and the Tories civil warring like there is no tomorrow - it is some achievement Corbers.

                            p.s. if Domo Grieve set up a new party tomorrow ( the 'Sensible Party' ?) he'd have my vote.

                            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                            Originally Posted by mr chips
                            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                              The fixed term parliament act makes it very hard to remove a government. The Tories can’t get rid of her themselves and the threat of a second referendum could very well see the ERG/ DUP cut their losses because No Deal isn’t going to happen, imho.
                              As soon as May's deal is voted down, the government would inevitably lose a confidence vote. The only question is when or whether that confidence vote takes place. After an extension to article 50, or after parliament agrees some way forward. The government itself might even bring a motion to dissolve parliament before the confidence vote. A GE seems inevitable anyway, and the Tories will want time to do their own leadership election / ritual bloodletting. So my money is on an Article 50 extension and then the Tories going to the country on a platform of managed no-deal, whatever that is.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                                Grieve has done May a huge favour. The Swire amendment will also help her over the line and realistically, if she manages the seemingly impossible and gets her deal through I can’t see the 27 turning around and saying sorry, that amendment changes everything, the deals off and it is over the cliff we all go. The key is whether she can get the DUP to not, enthusiastically, cut off their collective nose to spite their face which not many have managed to achieve. I do think it is interesting that the bould Arlene seems to have gone to ground but then that might be wishful thinking on my part. Whatever, I think she will go for a second referendum before she goes to the country although I think even this incompetent government would beat Corbyn/ McDonnell in a GE. I still think there will be a last minute reversal but I cannot see me needing to dig into my No Deal stockpile of tinned tomatoes!?!? It is May’s Deal or Remain now, imho, Grieve has given her and the Tories a partial out and piled massive pressure onto Labour, imho.
                                The Swire amendment is empty of content. The WA stays the same. No-one will be persuaded by it.

                                Comment

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