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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    I think the focus on Corbyn is a bit dated, though. The hardline Brexit that suddenly looks very possible has been driven entirely by the back benches.

    I think it's people like Starmer and Lammy who will be the ones to watch in the next act, and it's possible that Parliament can force a people's vote without a single party leader wanting it.

    Brexit is a cross party issue, and I think the desire I see in a lot of media and social media for one party to come out and be the "remain" party is a sort of muscle memory.

    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

    Comment


      Originally posted by aupa les rouges View Post

      Here's hoping!

      If I read you-gov correctly, that's ''remain 59, May's Deal 41''. But (a) that might not be the referendum choice (b) How would the hard brexiters and the 'let's get on with it' bunch vote?

      And in an increasingly nationalist UK unused to referendums, I wouldn't underestimate their ability to f..k it up all over again faced with what would be presented as a national humiliation.

      Sorry, gloomy I know. Blame it on the solstice blues.
      I think the "Brexit at any cost" numbers have dwindled - not to the point of insignificance by any stretch, but meaningfully rather than overwhelmingly. That YouGov poll had a few other interesting figures - for example, of those who said they would definitely vote at another referendum, the support for Remain over Leave (with May's deal) rose to 63:37. Moreover, I think that's a trend that will continue in the coming weeks, now that there's a looming reality being brought to bear on their fantasies. The poll also backs that up - among those who voted Leave in 2016, the percentage of those who now think leaving will make the UK stronger has dropped from 43% in September to just 24% now. I suppose it's possible that this 24% could actually represent the absolute hardcore, meaning it mightn't drop much further after all, but still - that would mean the hardcore now only makes up 12.5% of those who voted last time round.

      But Corbyn's utterances in recent days undoubtedly undermine him in the eyes of those who brought about the groundswell of support he's been enjoying over the past 18-24 months or so. I think he's made a potentially catastrophic mis-step which will make it easy to paint him as closed-minded and only interested in what the party membership has to say when it suits him - not without justification, IMO. On the Labour side, it's for the likes of Starmer, Watson, McDonnell et al to push for the second referendum now. That's the only thing that gives the UK a chance to save itself (from itself).
      Tis but a scratch.

      Comment


        They can push all they like, but the reality is that Corbyn has been voted leader - twice! - and with McCluskey bending his ear I can't see him changing tack.

        I can actually see a schism from the Labour and Tory party tabling their own amendment on a people's vote.

        Whether it would have enough support is another question. At a guess I'd say no - despite their own personal views MPs in leave areas will be more concerned about keeping their jobs.

        I can see a scenario where Mays deal is literally the only thing left on the table.
        Last edited by fitzy73; 24th-December-2018, 10:10.
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        Comment


          It's all a little but too quiet around Brexit at the moment. There doesn't seem to be any evidence that May has the votes to pass her deal (which looks like it will take place within the next fortnight). I cannot see any option for Corbyn but to back a second referendum if the WA doesn't pass the Commons given the overwhelming support for a second referendum among Labour voters. It's either that or step aside.
          "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

          Comment


            Originally posted by Jenta View Post
            It's all a little but too quiet around Brexit at the moment. There doesn't seem to be any evidence that May has the votes to pass her deal (which looks like it will take place within the next fortnight). I cannot see any option for Corbyn but to back a second referendum if the WA doesn't pass the Commons given the overwhelming support for a second referendum among Labour voters. It's either that or step aside.
            I doubt he will support a referendum or step aside. He is a hard brexiteer. He will have to be forced out...

            Comment


              Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

              I doubt he will support a referendum or step aside. He is a hard brexiteer. He will have to be forced out...
              He must know well at this stage that further concessions around the Customs Union will not be given by the EU, and that even if May secured such concessions any such deal would have a tough time getting through the Commons.

              I know he wants out of the EU but is helping to drag the country towards a no deal really how he wants to be remembered?
              "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

              Comment


                Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                He must know well at this stage that further concessions around the Customs Union will not be given by the EU, and that even if May secured such concessions any such deal would have a tough time getting through the Commons.

                I know he wants out of the EU but is helping to drag the country towards a no deal really how he wants to be remembered?
                He is also a hard communist. Means to an end and all that. Not sure logic comes into it.

                Comment


                  Dunno if any of ye missed the news the other day that the British government had awarded a £13.8 million contract for extra ferry services - in preparation for "no deal", so as to be able to have nearly 4000 lorries a week continue bringing in food, medicine and other goods through ports other than Dover - to a company which had never actually run any ferry services, and does not as yet own any ships?

                  Well, they did. But in another, entirely unsurprising twist, it turns out that their Department for Transport's much-vaunted due diligence didn't extend to checking the firm's website terms and conditions. Otherwise they might have spotted that those terms and conditions appear to be those for a takeaway food provider.



                  Full story at https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46748193

                  They are so, so fcuked.
                  Last edited by mr chips; 3rd-January-2019, 18:05.
                  Tis but a scratch.

                  Comment


                    Also - I'd say this will work out really well ... Police reinforcements for Northern Ireland in case of no-deal Brexit

                    Almost 1,000 police officers from England and Scotland are to begin training for deployment in Northern Ireland in case of disorder from a no-deal Brexit, the Guardian has learned.

                    The plans were put in place after Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) chiefs asked for reinforcements to deal with any trouble that arises from a hard border. The training for officers from English forces and Police Scotland is expected to begin this month.

                    The news came on a day of growing concern that a no-deal Brexit is becoming a distinct possibility, on which:

                    • The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, said Ireland was “now preparing for no deal with the same level of seriousness that we would” Theresa May’s deal, adding that he and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, had spoken and agreed that there could be no change in the offer to the UK.

                    • EU leaders rebuffed May’s hopes that her round of phone diplomacy could prompt any movement, saying “negotiations have concluded”.

                    • May’s attempts to woo the Democratic Unionist party were again rejected after two days of intense negotiations, making the chance of victory for the prime minister in the crucial mid-January vote on her deal still more remote.

                    The prospect of large numbers of English and Scottish officers being deployed on the streets of Northern Ireland after 29 March could anger republicans and complicate efforts to restore the power-sharing executive at Stormont, which collapsed in 2017.

                    The option of reinforcements is deemed necessary to cover the possibility of civil disorder arising from disquiet about border arrangements that could be put in place after a hard Brexit.

                    The police training will require officers to be pulled from their regular duties. It is needed because some of the equipment and tactics used in Northern Ireland vary from those used in the rest of the UK.

                    The PSNI request was made under mutual aid arrangements, which are in place to enable local police forces to help each other in times of heightened demands.

                    A team at the National Police Chiefs’ Council are planning for a no-deal Brexit which will also see extra demands on policing across the UK. Demands for reinforcements for Northern Ireland in the event of no deal come as forces with major ports in their jurisdiction prepare for chaos, especially at Dover in Kent.

                    Plans for a national mobilisation of police, which were devised after the 2011 riots across England, are being revised and adapted for the tensions thrown up by a no-deal Brexit.

                    The size of PSNI’s request for reinforcements from the rest of the UK because of Brexit is roughly double those it has made in recent years for the province’s marching season, when extra officers are needed to police tensions between Protestant and Catholic communities.

                    In remarks rejecting the government’s latest overtures to the DUP, the party’s Nigel Dodds said fears of a hard border were “nonsense propaganda”, adding: “With this clarity emerging in London, Dublin and Brussels, there is evidently no need for this aspect of the withdrawal agreement.”

                    Sources suggested that the meetings with May and the Conservative chief whip, Julian Smith, were “Groundhog Days” for those present. Significantly, there are no scheduled plans for further meetings between the prime minister and the DUP to discuss the backstop, the fallback plan to prevent the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland.

                    But Varadkar said the EU’s existing offer would not change. Saying he had “given up speculating” on whether the UK would leave the EU without a deal, he added that despite May’s attempts to find support in her phone calls to Merkel and others in recent days, European leaders stood united on the issue.

                    “We’re happy to offer reassurances and guarantees to the UK, but not reassurances and guarantees that contradict or change what was agreed back in November,” he said.

                    Irish and British government officials would be speaking by phone on Friday, Reuters reported Varadkar as saying. He added that the calls would be followed up with “direct contact” between the two prime ministers as needed.


                    Tis but a scratch.

                    Comment


                      Are the Tans still available?
                      Anybody who sees a psychiatrist would want their head examined.*&nb sp;Henry Ford

                      Comment


                        The DUP and Tory's are using fears over a hard border and fears that it will incite a return to violence as a negotiating tactic. Unbelievable stuff.
                        Is there anyone more progressive in the dup than arlene foster that will put the good of the province over their own narrow middle ages pocket lining rottenness?

                        https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...le-hard-border

                        Comment


                          YouGov has Labour down 5 points. Know that polls aren’t exactly all that reliable but still, pretty damning for them, with the absolute state of the Conservative government. Corbyn can talk about preferring a general election all he likes instead of a second referendum, but they are likely to lose again unless he takes a u-turn in relation to there Brexit policy. Or lack there off. Sitting on the fence won’t win anything in this case. And is causing real damage, and more moderates know this.

                          Polls also by YouGov have Labour supporters at about 75% for Remaining. Very hard to get any momentum unless they actually stand up against Brexit and become the Remain party the vast majority of the voters want them to be.

                          Westminster voting intention:



                          CON: 40% (-1)

                          LAB: 34% (-5)

                          LDEM: 10% (+3)

                          GRN: 4% (-)

                          UKIP: 4% (+1)



                          via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan

                          Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
                          Last edited by KerryRed; 6th-January-2019, 15:20.
                          "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                          Comment



                            Yougov tracks pro-Tory pretty consistently, and is about a 3-4% outlier from other polls. One of the founders was aTory MP and it's very close to the Tory establishment.

                            The polls are averaging out to about level pegging, and all within error margins.

                            That said, the Yougov poll is suggesting a drift from Labour to the LDs, which is a real risk in the current Brexit impasse.

                            The crunch is coming though. May's deal will get voted down, and then Labour's current shadow boxing will be past its shelf life. Corbyn won't get a GE, I don't think. If they come out for a PV, the next stage kicks off.

                            Will the Remain vote move to Labour in support of a PV? Where does the Labour Brexit vote go?

                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                              Yougov tracks pro-Tory pretty consistently, and is about a 3-4% outlier from other polls. One of the founders was aTory MP and it's very close to the Tory establishment.

                              The polls are averaging out to about level pegging, and all within error margins.

                              That said, the Yougov poll is suggesting a drift from Labour to the LDs, which is a real risk in the current Brexit impasse.

                              The crunch is coming though. May's deal will get voted down, and then Labour's current shadow boxing will be past its shelf life. Corbyn won't get a GE, I don't think. If they come out for a PV, the next stage kicks off.

                              Will the Remain vote move to Labour in support of a PV? Where does the Labour Brexit vote go?
                              I think people will be wary of going over to the Lib Dems after joining the conservative coalition a number of years back. Damaged the parties trust. I think it’s a big factor why there hasn’t been more of a shift from Labour thus far.
                              "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                              Comment


                                Unless I'm misreading the situation, I don't think Corbyn will row in behind a people's vote.

                                Further, they are sending out people like Barry Gardiner talking such dung that it's making the Tories seem credible.

                                Mays deal will be voted down, and at a guess (because who knows) the British will ask for an extension of A50 to get ready for an off the cliff no deal.

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