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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by Daithi View Post
    So back to Brexit :
    3 options now clearly emerging :
    1. May's deal or variant (which looks like it may be defeated)
    2. No deal Brexit
    3. About turn and stay in the EU.

    I think the smart money is on 1 or 3.

    Fwiw I think the EU would welcome a UK decision not to leave with open arms. in classic EU political solution mode, They may wish to alter article 50 mechanisms after the Brexit balloon has either flown or burst. What is definitely going to be interesting is the machinations of the Uk political system and media, to bring about a conclusion that the v vast majority of the ruling classes know is best for the UK, and which the majority of the electorate now also probably agree with.

    of course there are some bad actors in this drama, namely, Russia, elements of Trumps America and others.
    There is a path to a second referendum, but it's getting very narrow. If May goes, as above it's likely a more hardline leader will replace her. If the EU has it's "red lines" on what it is willing to negotiate than it could well be a no deal Brexit.

    On Labours side, Len McCluskey (Unite Union) has bent Corbyn's ear about having a second referendum. And he's a man they listen to.

    Presuming the vote goes against May next Tuesday, literally anything could happen.

    My guess is that markets crash, sterling drops through the floor, May keeps her job and negotiates a pickle on top of her sh*t sandwich deal, and it's voted through the second time.

    (I'd be more confident of Tadgh Furlong scoring a drop goal in next years 6N though).
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    Comment


      Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

      We’re way off topic, but it didn’t fund the stimulus. Classic cyclical Keysian measures - tax reduction, printing money, borrowing, spending - did that. All of which were available to the UK.
      No we aren’t off topic, Obama fracked a massive sovereign wealth fund to maintain his stimulus through tax reductions and spending. Whilst he did print money as well, he was able to do that, safe in the knowledge that he had hit the jackpot with the exploitation of shale gas and oil which meant the USA no longer had to import 40% of their energy needs as opposed to the 15% that fracking provided before his presidency. That was not available to the UK.

      Comment


        Originally posted by Daithi View Post
        So back to Brexit :
        3 options now clearly emerging :
        1. May's deal or variant (which looks like it may be defeated)
        2. No deal Brexit
        3. About turn and stay in the EU.

        I think the smart money is on 1 or 3.

        Fwiw I think the EU would welcome a UK decision not to leave with open arms. in classic EU political solution mode, They may wish to alter article 50 mechanisms after the Brexit balloon has either flown or burst. What is definitely going to be interesting is the machinations of the Uk political system and media, to bring about a conclusion that the v vast majority of the ruling classes know is best for the UK, and which the majority of the electorate now also probably agree with.

        of course there are some bad actors in this drama, namely, Russia, elements of Trumps America and others.
        Personally I would like to see the UK Remain but I do wonder whether May’s Deal and a relatively soft Brexit might be better in the short term until the country grows up and decides it wants to be a proper, full member of the EU. Unless and until the UK is ready to join the Euro, Schengen etc, I am not sure it works to be a member of the EU.

        Comment


          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

          There is a path to a second referendum, but it's getting very narrow. If May goes, as above it's likely a more hardline leader will replace her. If the EU has it's "red lines" on what it is willing to negotiate than it could well be a no deal Brexit.

          On Labours side, Len McCluskey (Unite Union) has bent Corbyn's ear about having a second referendum. And he's a man they listen to.

          Presuming the vote goes against May next Tuesday, literally anything could happen.

          My guess is that markets crash, sterling drops through the floor, May keeps her job and negotiates a pickle on top of her sh*t sandwich deal, and it's voted through the second time.

          (I'd be more confident of Tadgh Furlong scoring a drop goal in next years 6N though).
          I don’t think anyone is going to allow a No Deal Brexit to happen. I think you are right on the pickle on the sh’t sandwich bit and I wouldn’t rule out Furlong dropping a goal in the six nations

          Comment


            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

            No we aren’t off topic,
            Good to see that the two of you, (normally excellent posters) cant even agree about disagreeing

            Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



            Comment


              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

              I don’t think anyone is going to allow a No Deal Brexit to happen. I think you are right on the pickle on the sh’t sandwich bit and I wouldn’t rule out Furlong dropping a goal in the six nations
              Catching up on this thread over a glass of wine in a sh!tty Polish hotel room - this is a perfect summary.

              Almost zero chance of no deal (it's just not in anyone's interests). It wouldn't surprise me if Furlong dropped the goal back heel, deliberately hit the post, caught the rebound and scored under the posts

              But, Pickle, tomato or Ballymalloe relish May won't get this deal through the HoC.

              Comment


                A new, comprehensive customs union with the EU, with a British say in future trade deals, would strengthen our manufacturing sector and give us a solid base for industrial renewal under the next Labour government, especially for our held-back communities. It would remove the threat of different parts of the UK being subject to separate regulations. And it would deal with the large majority of problems the backstop is designed to solve.

                https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ur-theresa-may

                The man is bonkers.

                Comment


                  £56bn wiped off the value of the FTSE 100 today. Just on the rumour of a trade war. Wednesday will be interesting.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                    No we aren’t off topic, Obama fracked a massive sovereign wealth fund to maintain his stimulus through tax reductions and spending. Whilst he did print money as well, he was able to do that, safe in the knowledge that he had hit the jackpot with the exploitation of shale gas and oil which meant the USA no longer had to import 40% of their energy needs as opposed to the 15% that fracking provided before his presidency. That was not available to the UK.
                    Federal Royalties on all oil, gas and liquid extraction are $10bn a year.

                    They’re still a net importer of petroleum to the tune of $250bn a year.

                    The drop in oil prices boosted aggregate demand, and it creates jobs that added to tax revenues. It also stimulated other parts of the supply chain. But it was just a growing sector. That’s all. You might as well argue that Facebook funded the US stimulus. There was more GDP added by tech in that period than by shale.

                    The US sovereign wealth fund has a total of $150bn in assets under management.

                    The total cost of the stimulus package was $830bn.

                    No one I can find bar you thinks that the US stimulus package was funded by fracking. No one.
                    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                    Comment


                      EDIT: Looks like remain would just scrape through in Balla's Three-Way (which is how I will be thenceforth referring to the three option referendum).
                      Last edited by Jenta; 7th-December-2018, 09:21.
                      "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                      Comment


                        May obviously playing a great game of poker with her Cabinet and Party, or just hasn't a ****in hope, knows it and is just stringing it on as much as she can..
                        Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

                        Comment


                          Scary, roller coaster ride ahead....

                          this is what happens when a lazy assumption (i.e. the EU being the main author of the Uk's decline) is allowed to grow legs, and free riders exploit this inaccurate, flawed premise to actually break a country's economic (& political & social) links with its nearest continent.

                          most everybody agrees that the Uk should reelect to stay, but faction politics is getting in the way... for how long I wonder!?
                          ____________________________________________
                          Munster were great when they were Munster.

                          alas they are just north munster now.......
                          ____________________________________________

                          Comment


                            Rumours going around that there will be a referendum attaching to the deal vote on Tuesday. Lots of kite-flying as the Tories around May scramble to avoid the inevitable defeat. Most governments don't go through with votes they know they will lose. May seems determined to do it though. Maybe it's martyrdom.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                              A new, comprehensive customs union with the EU, with a British say in future trade deals, would strengthen our manufacturing sector and give us a solid base for industrial renewal under the next Labour government, especially for our held-back communities. It would remove the threat of different parts of the UK being subject to separate regulations. And it would deal with the large majority of problems the backstop is designed to solve.

                              https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ur-theresa-may

                              The man is bonkers.
                              The quote is from Jeremy Corbyn.
                              Regrettably, his policy is cakeism of the highest degree.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by aupa les rouges View Post
                                cakeism of the highest degree.
                                Thanks to Brexit, that phrase actually has meaning!

                                "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                                Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

                                Comment

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