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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    If it's voted down, and a GE is called, all Labour need to do is run on a mandate of offering a second referendum.

    The only caveat is the clock is ticking. By law a referendum takes a mimimmi of 12 weeks. Factor in a GE and that no enough time for a second referendum prior to March. They would have to seek a "stop the clock" from Brussels.
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    Comment


      Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

      Whether the Labour party would have got a better deal or not is irrelevant now . The Tories made a pigs Mickey of the negotiations is not in doubt.

      But where we are now means the EU negotiation shutters are down. Labour now can pick from.the available options and that does not include renegotiating with the EU
      Seems fairly naive. The EU are always open to any negotiator who wants more EU than previously. The parameters for Barnier remain the same, and were agreed two years ago. If the other side changes their stance to one that sits comfortably within those parameters instead of at the outer edges like the current one, there is almost no negotiating to be done. Plus the EU wins. Which they like doing.

      Comment


        Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

        Whether the Labour party would have got a better deal or not is irrelevant now . The Tories made a pigs Mickey of the negotiations is not in doubt.

        But where we are now means the EU negotiation shutters are down. Labour now can pick from.the available options and that does not include renegotiating with the EU
        You do like the look of your own post count.

        The EU doesn't have negotiation shutters, negotiation is what the EU does 24/7. If a UK govt wants a different deal the EU will talk. The problem is simply that there isn't a deal available which is better than membership.

        If the Brits want to be poorer and less influential in the world then let them.

        Comment


          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

          You do like the look of your own post count.

          The EU doesn't have negotiation shutters, negotiation is what the EU does 24/7. If a UK govt wants a different deal the EU will talk. The problem is simply that there isn't a deal available which is better than membership.

          If the Brits want to be poorer and less influential in the world then let them.
          Merkel said the shutters are down today.

          The problem with no deal and the 'Brits being poorer' as you so delicately put it is Northern Ireland, might not be an issue for you... but luckily Leo has prioritised the backstop.
          ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

          Originally Posted by mr chips
          AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

          Comment


            Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

            Seems fairly naive. The EU are always open to any negotiator who wants more EU than previously. The parameters for Barnier remain the same, and were agreed two years ago. If the other side changes their stance to one that sits comfortably within those parameters instead of at the outer edges like the current one, there is almost no negotiating to be done. Plus the EU wins. Which they like doing.
            Merkel has said the shutters are down.
            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

            Originally Posted by mr chips
            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

            Comment


              Gove stating he's remaining in his current role.

              Perhaps she's pulled off a supreme strategic Gambit, have the arch brexiters realised it won't get any better and bolted?

              If she survives a confidence vote she will have a far more 'remain' focused cabinet and the troublesome wankers like BoJo and Davis are dead and buried

              Loads of twists and turns, but if she's managed to get this and culled the opposers that's Machiavellian levels of nous
              I am the million man.

              Comment


                They'll make a Netflix series out of this some day. Starring Helen Mirren as May, Hodor (Kristian Nairn) as BoJo, and Rowan Atkinson as Gove
                "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                Comment


                  Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                  Merkel said the shutters are down today.

                  The problem with no deal and the 'Brits being poorer' as you so delicately put it is Northern Ireland, might not be an issue for you... but luckily Leo has prioritised the backstop.
                  Perhaps you should read real newspapers and not British tabloids (https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...mste-Fall.html)
                  (I guess they you have to go with what is on the table in the bookies)

                  What she has specifically said is 2 things. 1. The worst outcome is "no deal" and 2. What we have now is a "Grundlage", i.e. "a basis". This specifically means she is aware that no-deal remains a possibility and that negotiations may need to evolve. Journalists like to add BS shiny headlines to things, like "shutters down" but experts analyze what was actually said and realize that there is always a whole world of nuance, especially with canny and experienced operators like Merkel.

                  With respect to my Brits being poorer remark my point was that you can't force them to make a deal. If the Commons is determined to respect the referendum result and cannot agree to a deal and the PM cannot or will not extend A50 or revoke it then they crash out. This remains a live scenario which at this juncture is entirely outside of the hand of Leo, Michel, Jean-Claude, Donald, Emmanuel and Angela.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                    Perhaps you should read real newspapers and not British tabloids (https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...mste-Fall.html)
                    (I guess they you have to go with what is on the table in the bookies)

                    What she has specifically said is 2 things. 1. The worst outcome is "no deal" and 2. What we have now is a "Grundlage", i.e. "a basis". This specifically means she is aware that no-deal remains a possibility and that negotiations may need to evolve. Journalists like to add BS shiny headlines to things, like "shutters down" but experts analyze what was actually said and realize that there is always a whole world of nuance, especially with canny and experienced operators like Merkel.

                    With respect to my Brits being poorer remark my point was that you can't force them to make a deal. If the Commons is determined to respect the referendum result and cannot agree to a deal and the PM cannot or will not extend A50 or revoke it then they crash out. This remains a live scenario which at this juncture is entirely outside of the hand of Leo, Michel, Jean-Claude, Donald, Emmanuel and Angela.

                    re. "With respect to my Brits being poorer remark my point was" ... I thought there you were going to follow that up with something like

                    very silly. (as that is what it was).

                    re. "I guess they you have to go with what is on the table in the bookies"

                    Apologies if you belong to some sect like the Popular front for the outlawing of betting.

                    The fact is the Labour Party, with their ridiculous 6 'tests' and the ERG with their ridiculous ideology are now both indulging in side of the big red bus fantasies and are caught on the wrong side of the argument against British business who (largely) support the deal unless and until their is a realistic alternative.
                    ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                    Originally Posted by mr chips
                    AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                    Comment


                      British business have been handed a loaded gun, and are being asked to choose between shooting themselves in the spine and in the head. Unsurprisingly, they are choosing the former.

                      Given other choices, I'd imagine most would not choose to shoot themselves at all.
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                      Comment


                        Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post


                        re. "With respect to my Brits being poorer remark my point was" ... I thought there you were going to follow that up with something like

                        very silly. (as that is what it was).

                        re. "I guess they you have to go with what is on the table in the bookies"

                        Apologies if you belong to some sect like the Popular front for the outlawing of betting.

                        The fact is the Labour Party, with their ridiculous 6 'tests' and the ERG with their ridiculous ideology are now both indulging in side of the big red bus fantasies and are caught on the wrong side of the argument against British business who (largely) support the deal unless and until their is a realistic alternative.
                        No reply on substance I see - where is the evidence to support your claim that it it "shutters down".

                        I've no problem with your gambling addiction - it keeps the tax base broad, I'd just prefer it if you used the time before the 3.15 at Kempton to read things other than the Mail, Express or Sun. This way you wouldn't consistently make baseless claims like the above.

                        It is not silly to say that it is not possible for anyone outside of the UK to save the UK from its own choices. That is just reality. If you chose to read into my remark any sense that I think this would be a good outcome then you are being more foolish than usual. It goes without saying that Ireland and the EU26 will have to plan accordingly and minimize the impact of this slurry spreading on their own waters.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                          No reply on substance I see - where is the evidence to support your claim that it it "shutters down".

                          I've no problem with your gambling addiction - it keeps the tax base broad, I'd just prefer it if you used the time before the 3.15 at Kempton to read things other than the Mail, Express or Sun. This way you wouldn't consistently make baseless claims like the above.

                          It is not silly to say that it is not possible for anyone outside of the UK to save the UK from its own choices. That is just reality. If you chose to read into my remark any sense that I think this would be a good outcome then you are being more foolish than usual. It goes without saying that Ireland and the EU26 will have to plan accordingly and minimize the impact of this slurry spreading on their own waters.
                          re. "It is not silly to say that it is not possible"

                          You know the expression about the hole and stopping digging I presume?

                          re. "baseless claims like the above"

                          https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46228454

                          ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                          Originally Posted by mr chips
                          AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post


                            re. "With respect to my Brits being poorer remark my point was" ... I thought there you were going to follow that up with something like

                            very silly. (as that is what it was).

                            re. "I guess they you have to go with what is on the table in the bookies"

                            Apologies if you belong to some sect like the Popular front for the outlawing of betting.

                            The fact is the Labour Party, with their ridiculous 6 'tests' and the ERG with their ridiculous ideology are now both indulging in side of the big red bus fantasies and are caught on the wrong side of the argument against British business who (largely) support the deal unless and until their is a realistic alternative.
                            Labour's 6 tests for a deal are:

                            1. Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU?

                            2. Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?

                            3. Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?

                            4. Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom?

                            5. Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime?

                            6. Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?


                            These were created by a party whose membership and MPs are primarily Remain supporters. It is EU membership in all but name, and a third of the questions (4 and 6) are outside the terms of the deal anyway and the full responsibility of the British government. It is designed to appeal to their supporters and to differentiate them from the Tory party, while not aggravating Leave voters too much.

                            As you say, perhaps they should row in behind the deal now, which enshrines the UK as rule-takers for an indefinite period and is in direct conflict with the wishes of the party membership - because Business says so, and that must therefore be the right side of the argument. It might be a great strategy if you ignore all the obvious political fallout and the general unpopularity of the deal with both Remainers and Leavers. Plus, agreeing to the deal would be an acknowledgement that Labour has no real interest in running the country, appealing to voters, listening to its membership or delivering on its founding principles. It may well be a great idea, and I'm sure your bookie would be happy to take your bet that they will.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                              Labour's 6 tests for a deal are:

                              1. Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU?

                              2. Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?

                              3. Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?

                              4. Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom?

                              5. Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime?

                              6. Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?


                              These were created by a party whose membership and MPs are primarily Remain supporters. It is EU membership in all but name, and a third of the questions (4 and 6) are outside the terms of the deal anyway and the full responsibility of the British government. It is designed to appeal to their supporters and to differentiate them from the Tory party, while not aggravating Leave voters too much.

                              As you say, perhaps they should row in behind the deal now, which enshrines the UK as rule-takers for an indefinite period and is in direct conflict with the wishes of the party membership - because Business says so, and that must therefore be the right side of the argument. It might be a great strategy if you ignore all the obvious political fallout and the general unpopularity of the deal with both Remainers and Leavers. Plus, agreeing to the deal would be an acknowledgement that Labour has no real interest in running the country, appealing to voters, listening to its membership or delivering on its founding principles. It may well be a great idea, and I'm sure your bookie would be happy to take your bet that they will.
                              The labour Party should choose one of the available options

                              1) Tory deal.

                              2) No deal

                              3) 2nd Referendum.

                              The fantasy re-negotiation is not available.

                              Hopefully they will pick number 3.


                              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                              Originally Posted by mr chips
                              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                                re. "It is not silly to say that it is not possible"

                                You know the expression about the hole and stopping digging I presume?

                                re. "baseless claims like the above"

                                https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46228454
                                I've given you the precise quote in German. So I don't see how deliberate selective quoting by the BBC addresses that. Any time you see one clause a statement quoted out of context you can be fairly certain the journo is trying to make the facts fit the story. Die Welt article contains the full quote unedited. It then derives conclusions which you can either agree with our not.

                                In international negotiations and diplomacy the word "basis" (Grundlage in German) has a very very specific meaning. The fact that the BBC dropped that part from their quote and referred to "on the table" alone is evidence of the very poor journalistic standards prevalent in the UK but it not evidence of the EU ruling out further negotiation.

                                What is clear is that if the UK agrees to this withdrawal agreement then the EU27 will happily sign it and be done. It is, as Tusk has said, the best possible attempt to guard the EU's interests given the demands of the UK. If the UK does not accept this agreement a new one will be needed no matter how much the EU27 likes the current draft. In such a circumstance the EU would first want to see clearer British demands. That is unlikely to be forthcoming from any Tory PM.

                                Comment

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