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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
    In recent months I keep asking myself what makes the UK think it's so special? In the modern western world they're the same as everyone else.
    They're not the same as everyone else. We're way more sound.

    Comment


      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
      Who voted Leave in places like Stoke, Rotherham etc. And that doesn’t apply to the black economy, or to British tradesmen being under cut by migrant labour that isn’t paying NI and tax, which is a complaint I have heard a lot.


      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
      Re: Tradesmen, the numbers say otherwise. Wage competition has only impacted the lowest. And that is estimated at 1% wage suppression over 8 years.

      https://www.ft.com/content/0deacb52-...8-00386a18e39d
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment


        Originally posted by Upfront_1979 View Post
        PP was it not made clear in earlier article that UK could force everyone entering the country to show passport? They then know who is in the country, when they leave and if they have overstayed. Many EU countries you have to show passport to book hotel, lots of other controls possible never mind that U.K. Is most surveilled EU state AFAIK.

        It's just too easy to blame the EU rather than spend money and effort attempting to solve the problem
        Whether or not there could or should have been anything the UK could or should have done when Poland etc joined the EU, that horse has bolted and ended up in a pie in Belgium. And it was Blair’s government that facilitated it which makes his every intervention counter productive. And, most importantly, it lends credence to the feeling among swathes of the electorate that they are being lied to and the facts and figures do not come close to corresponding to their personal experience.


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        Comment


          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
          Re: Tradesmen, the numbers say otherwise. Wage competition has only impacted the lowest. And that is estimated at 1% wage suppression over 8 years.

          https://www.ft.com/content/0deacb52-...8-00386a18e39d
          Can’t access that but I can tell you without looking at it that any figures relating to the earnings of tradespeople are a guesstimate at best and every person who has paid cash for a job knows that.


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          Comment


            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
            Can’t access that but I can tell you without looking at it that any figures relating to the earnings of tradespeople are a guesstimate at best and every person who has paid cash for a job knows that.


            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
            Perhaps, but that still doesn't make anecdote stack up. The reality is that tradesmen in the UK have been maxed out in terms of business for years, and I don't recall seeing any price deflation for anything other than odd jobs.

            There's simply no evidence for wage suppression due to immigration in the UK. It effectively doesn't exist.
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
              Perhaps, but that still doesn't make anecdote stack up. The reality is that tradesmen in the UK have been maxed out in terms of business for years, and I don't recall seeing any price deflation for anything other than odd jobs.

              There's simply no evidence for wage suppression due to immigration in the UK. It effectively doesn't exist.
              I think as PP has alluded too that Brexit is an emotional decision built on anecdotes and cold figures don't resonate with Joe public.

              It's human nature to base decisions on your immediate social group rather than a more nebulous concept of an entire country or union.
              I think it was a wait but why blog that dug into how our biological decision making is still that of a tribal primitive. I'll try and dig it out but the gist was human society and technology are far more advanced and complex than biological human decision making can really handle so under pressure we still make decisions based on what Mary's cousins husband says and our own experiences rather than on a table in a database
              The only difference between me and a madman is that I'm not mad.
              - Salvador Dali (1904-1989)

              Comment


                Originally posted by Upfront_1979 View Post
                I think as PP has alluded too that Brexit is an emotional decision built on anecdotes and cold figures don't resonate with Joe public.

                It's human nature to base decisions on your immediate social group rather than a more nebulous concept of an entire country or union.
                I think it was a wait but why blog that dug into how our biological decision making is still that of a tribal primitive. I'll try and dig it out but the gist was human society and technology are far more advanced and complex than biological human decision making can really handle so under pressure we still make decisions based on what Mary's cousins husband says and our own experiences rather than on a table in a database
                And that sentiment applies to immigration, especially a wave of immigration as large and extraordinarily conspicuous as the EU8 migration, more than almost any experience we have as human beings; which is why it is so important that that it is done extremely carefully and transparently. Which sadly it wasn’t by Blair’s government. Of course no one cared when Brown told everyone that there would be “no return to boom and bust”, but when the sh’t hit the fan, which was sure to happen, people reacted instinctively and here we are. As I keep reiterating Brexit is irrational, emotional, instinctive etc etc.


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                Comment


                  Originally posted by Upfront_1979 View Post
                  I think as PP has alluded too that Brexit is an emotional decision built on anecdotes and cold figures don't resonate with Joe public.

                  It's human nature to base decisions on your immediate social group rather than a more nebulous concept of an entire country or union.
                  I think it was a wait but why blog that dug into how our biological decision making is still that of a tribal primitive. I'll try and dig it out but the gist was human society and technology are far more advanced and complex than biological human decision making can really handle so under pressure we still make decisions based on what Mary's cousins husband says and our own experiences rather than on a table in a database

                  Absolutely. I can see how these myths permeate.

                  And, on an intuitive level, you can see why the lump of labour fallacy exists. People know something about supply and demand, or at least feel they do, and apply it to lots of situations where it really doesn't hold.

                  Because it sort of makes sense.
                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                    Absolutely. I can see how these myths permeate.

                    And, on an intuitive level, you can see why the lump of labour fallacy exists. People know something about supply and demand, or at least feel they do, and apply it to lots of situations where it really doesn't hold.

                    Because it sort of makes sense.
                    People understand supply and demand enough to apply it to the cash in their pocket on a Friday night. And no amount of economist expertise will counter that even if they paid the slightest bit of attention to it, which they don’t.


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                    Comment


                      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                      People understand supply and demand enough to apply it to the cash in their pocket on a Friday night. And no amount of economist expertise will counter that even if they paid the slightest bit of attention to it, which they don’t.


                      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


                      And there you have it....it's not the supply and demand for labour that's driving how much cash they have in their pocket.

                      They're wrong, no matter how deeply they may be in denial about it.

                      And they might be better off if they took the time to understand how the world around them really works.
                      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                        And there you have it....it's not the supply and demand for labour that's driving how much cash they have in their pocket.

                        They're wrong, no matter how deeply they may be in denial about it.

                        And they might be better off if they took the time to understand how the world around them really works.
                        I am afraid you are ignoring the black economy in relation to income, which is how the world really works for tens of thousands of trades people in the UK, including migrants from the EU8 countries. But you are not alone because economists and the Inland Revenue ignore it as well rather than deal with the awkward and embarrassing reality.


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                        Comment


                          https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...acob-rees-mogg

                          Brexit ultras v Tory realists: that’s the real battle

                          Brexiteers’ fear of counter-revolution is now stronger in the Conservative party than actual opposition to Brexit – and more disruptive. Only a tiny number of Tory MPs call the whole thing a folly to its face. The overwhelming majority accept the referendum result and expect EU membership to expire in March 2019.

                          And still discord convulses the government. That is because the true schism is not between pro-Europeans and sceptics but between incompatible theories of Brexit. It is between those who see it as a job to be done within the parameters of normal politics, and those who see it as a revolution in which the old politics should perish.

                          People who campaigned on the leave side of the referendum find themselves on different sides of this line. The tension was crisply illustrated in an exchange between David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg at a parliamentary committee hearing a couple of weeks ago. Rees-Mogg pressed the Brexit secretary to explain the difference between a transition that looked like EU membership and EU membership itself. Davis replied that full EU members could not strike independent trade deals, whereas the government saw that freedom as a condition of transition.

                          Rees-Mogg then wanted to know why the UK didn’t just “get on with it”. Why not ignore the terms of EU membership? By waiting for technical agreement, were we not acting as “lackeys” of the EU? Davis’s reply is one of the most revealing Brexit statements made by a cabinet minister. “No,” he said. “We are acting as a law-abiding country.”

                          Davis harbours no closet ardour for Brussels. The difference between his concept of leaving and that of his backbench inquisitor lies in wanting it to be done carefully, in accordance with existing treaties. For Rees-Mogg and his acolytes that is the cowardly spirit of remain. For them, it is not the security of jobs or Britain’s international reputation that matters, but the safety of the revolution from its hidden enemies.

                          The ultras will not be satisfied with Brexit at the moment when the UK legally ceases to be an EU member. They long for the day when Britain’s relationship with the EU is so completely transformed, the bridges so charred and ruined, that the very memory of membership feels remote. That is why they are so very incensed by suggestions that the UK might form any kind of customs union with the EU. It isn’t just independent trade policy, but the spiritual purity of the project that hangs in the balance. Every thread must be cut.


                          That pitch of radicalism is hard to sustain inside the cabinet. Ideological Brexiteers have been chastened by exposure to the technical challenges lurking in their ministerial red boxes. Davis is not the only one to have been on a journey. Liam Fox and Michael Gove acquiesced without fuss to all the compromises made by Theresa May to complete the first phase of negotiations in December. It is said around Whitehall that even the most giddy and cavalier ministerial leavers sobered up when they grasped the facts of the Irish border problem. Then they stopped agitating for harder, faster rupture.

                          Boris Johnson is still capable of mischief but his restlessness stems from frustrated ambition, not impatience for a more puritan Brexit. Tory guardians of the revolution know that the foreign secretary’s hostility to the EU in 2016 was synthetic. They despise him for that lack of principle, while gratefully receiving any help he lends them as part of his perpetual leadership campaign. Johnson is so wrapped up in vanity and the myth of his own intelligence, he can’t see that he is the useful idiot to a cause other than his own.

                          In ministerial offices, the idea of Brexit collides with the idea of responsible government. But on the backbenches, that dilemma is denied and the thing that diplomats and officials call reality is recast as conspiracy. The nefarious masterminds of counter-revolution are Olly Robbins, May’s chief Brexit adviser, and Sir Jeremy Heywood, head of the civil service. Neither man shows the slightest intention of keeping Britain in the EU. Their sin is trying to organise Brexit in a way that allows Britain’s economic and political institutions to continue functioning properly.


                          That appears to be May’s preference too, but she lacks the courage to say so in such bald terms. So where does power lie? May looks like the head of a Soviet republic, formally occupying the highest office, yet taking ideological direction from a superior authority in the party. Or, even more bizarrely, Tory politics resembles revolution on the Iranian model, where the elected political leader is subordinate to a supreme spiritual leader, a role performed in this analogy by Rees-Mogg. For all of May’s obvious commitment to EU withdrawal, the Brexit ayatollahs don’t trust her to do it with the correct fundamentalist spirit. And they call the shots.

                          The travesty is that this is happening in the name of democracy, to honour the sacred referendum result. The mandate from 2016 was to leave the EU, not to scorch the earth on which British governments have stood for a generation. The leave campaign promised many things, but obedience to the scriptures of Rees-Moggery was not among them. The battle now being waged for control of the Tory party is an offshoot of the referendum, but with a crucial difference. It is a campaign for power without even a pretence of wanting accountability. That is the point in every revolution where democracy gets left behind.
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                          Comment


                            Another great article.

                            https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...acob-rees-mogg

                            Rest assured, when Brexit bombs, it won’t be the fault of the Tory right

                            The right does not want British institutions to take back control from the EU. It wants to take control of British institutions. Understand its raging ambition and you will understand why self-proclaimed Conservatives are so anxious to destroy.

                            Patriots who shout about their love of country daily announce their hatred of every British principle that might constrain them. The rule of law and sovereignty of parliament? The Mail echoed every totalitarian movement since the Jacobins and denounced judges as “enemies of the people” for ruling that Brexit couldn’t be triggered without the approval of parliament. Academic freedom? A government whip demanded universities tell him what lecturers were teaching about Brexit. The right of MPs to follow their conscience? Liberal Tories received death threats after the Telegraph called them “mutineers” for not obeying orders and thinking for themselves. Now the civil service is having its ethics besmirched and neutrality threatened. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker accused it of plotting to undermine Brexit by producing needlessly pessimistic forecasts. The lie was so demonstrably false even Baker had to apologise. Tellingly, Rees-Mogg did not. Unnervingly, he may be our next prime minister.

                            You do not have to know much history to recognise a stab-in-the-back myth in the making. German militarists and fascists explained away defeat in the First World War with the dolchstosslegende: the German armies had not been defeated by their enemies in France but by communists, Jews and pacifists at home. So Brexit will not be defeated because the Tory right sold the British a fantasy but because judges, civil servants, saboteurs and mutineers subverted a glorious victory.

                            Far from holding back the growth of extremism, our leaders encourage it. The received wisdom holds that Theresa May does not know what she wants from Brexit. As my colleague Rafael Behr says, Mrs May has told us exactly what she wants. She wants Britain to walk away from the EU, its single market, customs union and courts, while retaining privileged access to its markets. The trouble with what she wants is not that she does not know it but that it’s impossible to achieve.

                            “We can have our cake and eat it” is no longer the slogan of that asinine opportunist Boris Johnson but of the post-Brexit establishment. Both Conservatives and Labour pretend there is no hard choice between taking back control and economic hardship. May tells the BBC we can have it all because that’s “what the British people voted for”. Presumably, if the British people voted for unicorns to deliver hot and cold running champagne, she would say they must have that too.

                            Rather than challenge her, Jeremy Corbyn echoes her. He insists we can leave the single market, while “retaining the benefits” of being in the single market. Brexit is performing a reverse alchemy on British parties, turning their golden principles into base metal. The Tories are threatening business. The anti-racist, pro-union Labour left still thinks it has the right to brand Labour leaders of the past as sell outs. Yet it sits on its hands as Corbyn maintains immigrants are wrecking job opportunities for natives and does nothing as he ignores the TUC’s warning that leaving the single market will threaten job security and workers’ rights.

                            Britain is a lucky country. It was on the winning side in two world wars and in the Cold War. Unlike virtually every other European, African and Asian state in the 20th century, we were never invaded or occupied. The British were the colonisers, not the colonised; the victors, not the vanquished.

                            British exceptionalism helps explain why 17.4 million voted to leave the EU. Countries with more tragic histories would never have taken such a reckless step. The smugness stability has given Britain has a further consequence. It makes it next to impossible to warn about the corruption of national life. Point to the Trumpian contempt for independent institutions, the impatience with checks and balances on power and disdain for truth and you are told to keep calm and carry on. These ills may afflict foreigners but they can’t happen here.

                            For all the complacency, cowardice still comes at a price – even in Britain. The cowardice of May and Corbyn is preparing the ground for a nationalist reaction to Brexit’s inevitable disappointment. Millions will find they can’t have it all and look for someone to blame. It is not alarmist to imagine a rightwing government deflecting attention from its own culpability and using conspiracy theory to justify attacks on the independence of the judiciary, civil service and BBC. A far-left government would be as eager to assault all three and replace neutral men and women with forelock-tugging ideologues. No one, indeed, should be more grateful to Rees-Mogg and the Daily Mail than John McDonnell. They are providing the ammunition he may reach for in office.

                            Britain might have voted to leave the EU, but it cannot leave the modern world. In Russia, Hungary, Poland, the US and Venezuela, we have seen elected autocrats sweeping aside, or attempting to sweep aside, constraints on their power. They have the people’s mandate. Anyone who stands in their way is therefore an enemy of democracy itself. We should look at countries where extremists, who bear a striking similarity to our extremists, are in power and remember that the past doesn’t determine the future. Just because it hasn’t happened here does not mean the British can console themselves with the happy thought that it can’t happen here – the more so when it already is.
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                              http://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-29/t...dy-double-act/

                              At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, Angela Merkel naughtily poked fun at Theresa May, in a secret briefing for journalists.

                              Here's what transpired, according to those there.

                              Mrs Merkel said that when she asks Mrs May what she wants the shape of the UK's relationship with the EU to be, Mrs May says "make me an offer".

                              To which Mrs Merkel says, "but you're leaving - we don't have to make you an offer. Come on what do you want?

                              To which Mrs May replies "make me an offer".

                              And so, according to Mrs Merkel, the two find themselves trapped in a recurring loop of "what do you want?" and "make me an offer".

                              At its telling, the hacks laughed uproariously - though I am not sure this is so funny for the UK.

                              Mrs Merkel and Mrs May’s comedy skit reflects a deep and uncomfortable truth for the Government and country - which is that the Prime Minister and her Cabinet have not yet decided what our future trading relationship with the EU should look like, because (to state the bloomin’ obvious) ministers are at loggerheads over this.

                              But good news!

                              The negotiations that matter start in earnest this week: not between the UK and Brussels, or even the UK and Germany, but between the erstwhile Remainers Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd and Greg Clark on the one hand and the arch Brexiteers Michael Gove and Boris Johnson on the other.

                              Click image for larger version

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                                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                                I am afraid you are ignoring the black economy in relation to income, which is how the world really works for tens of thousands of trades people in the UK, including migrants from the EU8 countries. But you are not alone because economists and the Inland Revenue ignore it as well rather than deal with the awkward and embarrassing reality.


                                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

                                So all UK economic statistics are invalid, all wage data invalid etc because the UK ignores the shadow economy.

                                Despite estimates of the scale of the shadow economy being available to a franction of a percentage of GDP? There's a report here:

                                http://www.accaglobal.com/content/da...omy-report.pdf


                                The treasury and research economists don't knock their stuff up based on Wikipedia.


                                Is it not the case that while you very rightly point out that Brexit is emotional and irrational, that amounts to pretty much the same thing as saying that the people you're hearing complain are simply wrong?
                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                                Comment

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