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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

    Looking forward to this. I lived in Scotland during the Independence referendum, and it did stir a debate that was interesting and needed.

    I've no doubt that this Brexit referendum will do the same, but expect a much more polarised affair. Personally I feel that a debate in the UK, and here hopefully, ensures that question of what we really want from the EU will get air time.

    No doubt the polar opposites in the UK press will parrot their usual lines, but with Cameron pushing a Yes vote, it will be really interesting to see who lines up in the No camp.

    Here, the debate will probably will probably be completely different - what's good for Ireland: Britain in or out?

    In Scotland two years ago, most of the debate in the end revolved around jobs in military bases, pensions and North Sea oil and gas. Inevitable really. While there will surely be some longer term thinking thrown about in Britain before June, I hope that immigration doesn't become that core issue.
    Last edited by blackwarrior; 12th-January-2018, 09:12. Reason: Thread title updated
    "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
    Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

    #2
    I think there is no doubt but that a British exit would be bad for Ireland, however I do see it as the most likely outcome.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by Viigand View Post
      I think there is no doubt but that a British exit would be bad for Ireland, however I do see it as the most likely outcome.
      The bookies seem to think they will stay in the EU

      https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics...bership-result

      Comment


        #4
        Having lived here (England) for 20 years, immigration / xenophobia is the only issue for vast swathes of the population. At this moment, knives are being sharpened to prepare for industrial level nose amputations to spite faces. Employment levels have never been higher here, but hey, kick them all out.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Viigand View Post
          I think there is no doubt but that a British exit would be bad for Ireland, however I do see it as the most likely outcome.
          I think that they will vote to stay in.

          The self-interest of the rich and powerful (dressed up as the national interest) will mean a never ending stream of hype in favour of a yes vote.
          The people will be frightened into voting yes.
          But if by chance they don't it might well be the case that the government will claim that the people didn't understand the issues properly and give them the opportunity to vote again.

          Comment


            #6
            I think the UK will, very narrowly, vote to leave. Much like the last GE, I don't think the metropolitan zeitgeisters have the first idea how the average English voter, and it will be the English who decide the result the same as the GE, feels about Europe and especially the perceived democratic deficit. I will be voting to stay in but I don't think they will win.

            Comment


              #7
              I think our lot of political muppets are missing a trick here.

              They should threaten to have an IRExit referendum about leaving the Euro and using the politcal capital that wound generate in Europe to get the Euro 8bn the Irish tax payer was forced to pony up for Anglo bond holders (I.e. EU, UK &Us banks), written off through the EU banking fund or some other shared cost mechanism.

              Yet, our fools are squabbling over how we pay for water and child care ffs.

              Penny wise Pound Stupid!!!
              ____________________________________________
              Munster were great when they were Munster.

              alas they are just north munster now.......
              ____________________________________________

              Comment


                #8
                Any talk of abandoning the current path is madness for Ireland Inc. Growth is happening faster here than anywhere else and that's what will solve the issues. You don't go 90% of a journey and then turn back
                My computer thinks I'm gay
                What's the difference anyway
                When all the people do all day
                Is stare into a phone

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by sewa View Post
                  Any talk of abandoning the current path is madness for Ireland Inc. Growth is happening faster here than anywhere else and that's what will solve the issues. You don't go 90% of a journey and then turn back
                  What does this actually mean??!
                  ____________________________________________
                  Munster were great when they were Munster.

                  alas they are just north munster now.......
                  ____________________________________________

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Daithi View Post
                    What does this actually mean??!
                    It means we should and indeed will ignore your mad idea above.
                    My computer thinks I'm gay
                    What's the difference anyway
                    When all the people do all day
                    Is stare into a phone

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Daithi View Post
                      I think our lot of political muppets are missing a trick here.

                      They should threaten to have an IRExit referendum about leaving the Euro and using the politcal capital that wound generate in Europe to get the Euro 8bn the Irish tax payer was forced to pony up for Anglo bond holders (I.e. EU, UK &Us banks), written off through the EU banking fund or some other shared cost mechanism.
                      I think there may be some sort of opportunity here too. At the moment we're effectively prisoners of the EU (with a possibly terminal case of Stockholm Syndrome). We do what we're told to do by people who have never set foot in the country and don't understand and are not interested in how we want to shape our society.

                      The EU is only capable really of acting in the interests of the most powerful EU forces - Germany. With the UK out that makes it even more imbalanced. The EU doesn't really give a damn about us and would pave Ireland for a carpark if it thought it would be useful - and FF and FG would be happy to tell you it was a great idea.

                      Personally I don't really have an objection to living in a provincial backwater of a superstate run by imperial appointees. But it didn't work out so well when we did it the last time.
                      Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by sewa View Post
                        Any talk of abandoning the current path is madness for Ireland Inc. Growth is happening faster here than anywhere else and that's what will solve the issues. You don't go 90% of a journey and then turn back
                        Other than in relation to economic quasi academic snapshots, how has Growth affected the average Irish person, I have seen no increase in standard of living here parallel to this mythical growth.
                        Emperors new clothes I reckon. As to Brexit, the Euro will no doubt weaken markedly but as our debts are euro and medium term oil remains cheap, things should remain as is, in fact our universities and research faculties should see a boom of extra fundings , IT and other services also make gains. A different but not terrible vista.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by bundi View Post
                          Other than in relation to economic quasi academic snapshots, how has Growth affected the average Irish person, I have seen no increase in standard of living here parallel to this mythical growth.
                          Emperors new clothes I reckon. As to Brexit, the Euro will no doubt weaken markedly but as our debts are euro and medium term oil remains cheap, things should remain as is, in fact our universities and research faculties should see a boom of extra fundings , IT and other services also make gains. A different but not terrible vista.
                          I think most growth these days affects a smaller and smaller part of the population as low wage and zero hours-style contracts predominate in the labour market.
                          Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by bundi View Post
                            Other than in relation to economic quasi academic snapshots, how has Growth affected the average Irish person, I have seen no increase in standard of living here parallel to this mythical growth.
                            Emperors new clothes I reckon. As to Brexit, the Euro will no doubt weaken markedly but as our debts are euro and medium term oil remains cheap, things should remain as is, in fact our universities and research faculties should see a boom of extra fundings , IT and other services also make gains. A different but not terrible vista.
                            It was always going to be a job less recovery initially, this was flagged way in advance. The effects will filter through over time in terms of lower taxes and investment in public services.
                            My computer thinks I'm gay
                            What's the difference anyway
                            When all the people do all day
                            Is stare into a phone

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by sewa View Post
                              It was always going to be a job less recovery initially, this was flagged way in advance. The effects will filter through over time in terms of lower taxes and investment in public services.
                              A job less recovery, you mean we've all got used to being poor........ sounds like a scratch saturday punchline. In other news Paddy Jackson makes try saving tackle and otherwise playing a blinder, surely gets a joe call.

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