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US Presidential Election - Indecision 2016

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      Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
      In my opinion this was not about Clinton as a woman. If the establishment thinks that then nothing will change. Trump managed to raise issues which connected with people. Clinton was portrayed as a Washington insider - they way she handled the emails and the way the party treated Sanders reinforced that view. It is similar to BREXIT - if an element of the media consistently say something about someone the mud will stick. Trump just told people what they wanted to hear, promised them what he cannot deliver and threw more mud on Clinton. Clinton, in turn, fell into the trap of attacking Trump rather than focus on policy and substance.
      Agreed. He told white middle America.... Jobs, security and a future. They were hit hard like over here after 08'. He said what they wanted to here. They overlooked his indiscretions and general outlook for a promise of employment, financial security and a future. She was a vote for the status quo and never appealed to voters on the issues he did in the way he did.
      He's a guy who gets up at six o'clock in the morning regardless of what time it is.

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        Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
        In my opinion this was not about Clinton as a woman. If the establishment thinks that then nothing will change. Trump managed to raise issues which connected with people. Clinton was portrayed as a Washington insider - they way she handled the emails and the way the party treated Sanders reinforced that view. It is similar to BREXIT - if an element of the media consistently say something about someone the mud will stick. Trump just told people what they wanted to hear, promised them what he cannot deliver and threw more mud on Clinton. Clinton, in turn, fell into the trap of attacking Trump rather than focus on policy and substance.

        It's just a question of emphasis, I think.

        Did Clinton lose the election because she's a woman? Yes. Definitely.

        Did she lose it because she didn't connect with the disaffected as well as Trump (and Sanders)? Yes. Definitely.

        Did she lose it because !% of people voted for Stein? Possibly.

        In any election in which the two principle candidates both get 48% of the popular vote, there's an awful lot of dynamics that you can rightly point to and say "If that had been different, we'd have a different result".

        If she'd won on a knife edge, a lot of people on the right might be gunning for Gary Johnson and his 3.2%.



        Looking at the numbers as they came in, there was one consistent theme that drove the result and will have plenty of people debating its cause, but is ultimately why she lost. In the areas where she won, she didn't win by enough. She won many of the same counties in each state as Obama, but regularly tracked 5% off his total at the last election. In every state, the electoral map of the US requires the Democrats to pile up massive wins in the urban centres in each state. And even where she did, they weren't big enough.

        When the statisticians really get to grips with it, the key question will be "who were those 5% of democrat voters in those counties, and where did they go to between Obama and Clinton".

        That's where the election was lost, mathematically at least.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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          Originally posted by JRain View Post
          I don't have any grá for Trump, I'm more interested in the message for change his election sends.
          Exactly. We have to face to the same phenomenon in nearly all our west democrazies. Brexit, this election, the rumble in Spain where the corrupted Rajoy got the power again by default, the arising of Le Pen hier, Wilders' speach in Netherlands, AfD in Germany (Most of all in the ex-DDR Länder),Tusk in Poland, Orban... Not to speak about the democratures in Russia and Turkey.
          In all this countries we have a lack of real statesmen and stateswomen with a vision and a project for the future for the good of the society as we had 30 or 40 years ago. Selfishness, cynism, greed, and most of all a great sense of manipulation and lie are what lead our politicos today. Everywhere. And I really fear a domino effect: Brexit (Farage's/Johnson's lies, Cameron's manipulations), US elections (Trump's lies, Clinton corrupted image... France next spring (Le Pen's permanent lies, Sarkozy's permanent lies, Hollande's incompetence, treasons and renouncements)? Ok, I admit it, France is nowadays nearly nothing on the scale of the planet, but nevertheless, that would be another shock.
          And during this time, Baroso who left the EU commission gets a high post by Goldman-Sachs in London, and in Brussels, Juncker does not find a better idea than promoting Günther Oettinger who had shortly expressed "trumpic" racist (again China), homophobic, sexist and contemptuous positions!
          Winter comes, my friends, winter comes... and not for the fake of us all...
          The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

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            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
            He very nearly won the one he fought. I know muscle memory is strong, but on the day that ****face Von Clownstick gets elected, I think it's reasonable to say that assumptions about the ways to win an election in the US might be up for re-consideration.
            Sit down for yourself Balla with a nice warm cup of tea and take a few deep breaths. You don't have to respond to every single post on this thread. You're venturing into Matlock78 territory here.

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            When things go wrong, blame McGahan

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              Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
              How he squared being a billionaire to resonate with the rust belt unemployed man is beyond me
              People wanted Change and he is a great sales man . Right time right place
              employ your time in improving yourself by other men's writings,so that you shall gain easily what others have labored hard for. "socrates"
              beware the barrenness of a busy life, "socrates "
              who are you to judge the life i live? I know i'm not perfect-and i don't live to be-but before you start pointing fingers...make sure you hands are clean." BOB MARLEY
              we are what we repeatedly do.excellance,then,is not an act,but a habit ''aristotle''

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                Good for Ireland? He said he loved the Irish the last time he was here and he even speaks some "Gaelic"



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                " Honey, how's the craic?"

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                  Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                  It's just a question of emphasis, I think.

                  Did Clinton lose the election because she's a woman? Yes. Definitely.

                  Did she lose it because she didn't connect with the disaffected as well as Trump (and Sanders)? Yes. Definitely.

                  Did she lose it because !% of people voted for Stein? Possibly.

                  In any election in which the two principle candidates both get 48% of the popular vote, there's an awful lot of dynamics that you can rightly point to and say "If that had been different, we'd have a different result".

                  If she'd won on a knife edge, a lot of people on the right might be gunning for Gary Johnson and his 3.2%.



                  Looking at the numbers as they came in, there was one consistent theme that drove the result and will have plenty of people debating its cause, but is ultimately why she lost. In the areas where she won, she didn't win by enough. She won many of the same counties in each state as Obama, but regularly tracked 5% off his total at the last election. In every state, the electoral map of the US requires the Democrats to pile up massive wins in the urban centres in each state. And even where she did, they weren't big enough.

                  When the statisticians really get to grips with it, the key question will be "who were those 5% of democrat voters in those counties, and where did they go to between Obama and Clinton".

                  That's where the election was lost, mathematically at least.
                  Can you prove this?
                  A lion online, a lamb at home.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Mack the Knife View Post
                    http://www.latimes.com/nation/politi...nt=oft06a-1li2.
                    LA Times going bullish on Clinton. Meanwhile Nate Silver goes to war with his doubters http://www.vox.com/2016/11/6/1354232...r-huffpo-polls.
                    Could this election herald his decline along with Trump?
                    Mods ban me now, Silver has been vindicated and Trump soars.
                    We'll engrave your name in gold, as we did in days of old.
                    Roll along lovely Axel, roll along.

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                      Originally posted by JRain View Post
                      I am not unhappy with this outcome. Donald Trump is different to what we're used to and may just be a good thing.
                      The interests of big business have been coming first for a long time now, whether in terms of not being taxed, getting favourable incentives, moving their factories to third world countries or bringing in cheap labour from overseas. It's been like the return of the robber barons of the 19th and early 20th centuries.
                      In the name of competitiveness we have seen the resurgence of a model where real after tax wages have declined.
                      Politics has been failing the working people of the west and they've had enough and that's why Trump was elected.
                      It's sent a message to the politicians that the people who pay the bills are sick of being taken for fools and want real change.
                      Trump is probably far from being the ideal messenger for this but he's independently rich and in America, if you don't have the backing of a political party (and by extension big business) then you have to be wealthy to get elected.
                      So this, and brexit, are messages to big business, to the political and to the chattering classes that they need to listen to the 'coping classes' for a change.
                      And if they don't, there's a chance that next time they may get someone a lot less to their liking than Trump.
                      You do realise the Donald has an interest in approx 500 companies? That he has sweat shops in Indonesia to churn out crap with his name on it? This is not some son of the soil, he has spent his entire life in big business.

                      So if the yanks so terribly want manufacturing to return home will they be happy to multiply the cost of consumer goods by 10? If an iPad were to be built in the States it would cost in the region of 7k, will the uber consumerism of Americans just suck that up or will they instead be happy to divide their wages by 10?

                      The immigrant's grandchild with the immigrant's

                      Originally posted by JRain View Post
                      I am not unhappy with this outcome. Donald Trump is different to what we're used to and may just be a good thing.
                      The interests of big business have been coming first for a long time now, whether in terms of not being taxed, getting favourable incentives, moving their factories to third world countries or bringing in cheap labour from overseas. It's been like the return of the robber barons of the 19th and early 20th centuries.
                      In the name of competitiveness we have seen the resurgence of a model where real after tax wages have declined.
                      Politics has been failing the working people of the west and they've had enough and that's why Trump was elected.
                      It's sent a message to the politicians that the people who pay the bills are sick of being taken for fools and want real change.
                      Trump is probably far from being the ideal messenger for this but he's independently rich and in America, if you don't have the backing of a political party (and by extension big business) then you have to be wealthy to get elected.
                      So this, and brexit, are messages to big business, to the political and to the chattering classes that they need to listen to the 'coping classes' for a change.
                      And if they don't, there's a chance that next time they may get someone a lot less to their liking than Trump.
                      You do realise the Donald has an interest in approx 500 companies? That he has sweat shops in Indonesia to churn out crap with his name on it? This is not some son of the soil, he has spent his entire life in big business.

                      So if the yanks so terribly want manufacturing to return home will they be happy to multiply the cost of consumer goods by 10? If an iPad were to be built in the States it would cost in the region of 7k, will the uber consumerism of Americans just suck that up or will they instead be happy to divide their wages by 10?

                      The immigrant's grandchild with the immigrant wife is going to deport immigrants???

                      Sent from my E5823 using Tapatalk
                      "Everything good about Ireland can be found in County Cork"....Lonely Planet Guide 2012

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                        Originally posted by Mack the Knife View Post
                        Mods ban me now, Silver has been vindicated and Trump soars.
                        Good take on Silver here: https://www.thestar.com/news/world/u...rediction.html
                        "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                        Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

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                          Originally posted by limerickdeco View Post
                          People wanted Change and he is a great sales man.
                          Why do all his businesses keep failing then?
                          "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

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                            Originally posted by Jenta View Post
                            Why do all his businesses keep failing then?
                            Because when they loose money he doesn't have to pay income tax

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                              Hopefully it won't all be as disastrous as many here feared. I'd expect the republican establishment to manage their new President - after all, they have traditionally been the party of big business etc. If they row back hard on social supports, they will lose that vote next time out. Similarly they are unlikely to crack the whip too viciously against their major corporates. On a personal basis I find Trump loathsome; also I'm sad that we didn't see the first female President. But once the dust settles we can hope that wiser heads will come into play, and let Trump focus on enjoying the benefits without making any big decisions.

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                                Originally posted by Jenta View Post
                                Why do all his businesses keep failing then?
                                Because he's a Gowl
                                Con Artist

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