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    That is daily deaths, the plot of cumulative deaths doesn’t make that seem any more likely.
    Click image for larger version

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      Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post
      That is daily deaths, the plot of cumulative deaths doesn’t make that seem any more likely.
      Click image for larger version

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      It's clearly speculative, but given the nature of the other two curves I don't see any reason to think it's unlikely. There are still huge numbers of people going to work in the UK every day.
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment




        Slightly alarmingly, the UK DOH has confirmed that it's only releasing death figures once families have consented...
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

        Comment


          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

          Slightly alarmingly, the UK DOH has confirmed that it's only releasing death figures once families have consented...
          That’s bizarre. Surely the cumulative data doesn’t compromise any individual privacy information. This approach is extremely worrying
          "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

          Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

          Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

          Comment


            Originally posted by Waterfordlad View Post

            That’s bizarre. Surely the cumulative data doesn’t compromise any individual privacy information. This approach is extremely worrying
            Absolutely- it certainly would be- given vast differences in testing regimes only the death figures make any sense- must say it surprises me.... but wouldn’t want to try to deny it without checking.

            Comment


              We demand to know how many Brits are snuffing it. It's our right.
              Yorn desh born, der ritt de gitt der gue,
              Orn desh, dee born desh, de umn bork! bork! bork!

              Comment


                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



                It's clearly speculative, but given the nature of the other two curves I don't see any reason to think it's unlikely. There are still huge numbers of people going to work in the UK every day.
                There are, but there are many many more who are not, and at the very least that change will slow the growth. I haven’t fitted curves to the data myself- but it seems to me the slope of Italy and Spain are equivalent- and UK looks quite different, not just delayed- will have a crack as doing this later on, and will post.

                I note the change to ‘clearly speculative’ from ‘being briefed that totals will exceed Italy and Spain’. They may well do, but even if Italy and Spain had no further deaths- a very unlikely event- the UK would take quite a while to reach their levels, even if the growth really is exponential- (which I will check when I have a play).

                Comment


                  Everytime I read about whats happening over in Blighty, I think of these memes


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                  I am the million man.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Miguel Sanchez View Post
                    We demand to know how many Brits are snuffing it. It's our right.
                    Mig, we have many posters based in the UK on here, and many of us have family & friends living there too. T'would be nice to have a bit more sensitivity at this time, and I'm speaking as someone who has often not phrased posts as well as I could have.

                    Thanks
                    "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                    Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                    Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                    Comment


                      Article from The Atlantic (a Boston based journal and magazine): well worth a read. I'll post the first page or two

                      https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...us-end/608719/

                      How the Pandemic Will End

                      The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.


                      Three months ago, no one knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. Like World War II or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.
                      A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable. In recent years, hundreds of health experts have written books, white papers, and op-eds warning of the possibility. Bill Gates has been telling anyone who would listen, including the 18 million viewers of his TED Talk. …

                      … On the Global Health Security Index, a report card that grades every country on its pandemic preparedness, the United States has a score of 83.5—the world’s highest. Rich, strong, developed, America is supposed to be the readiest of nations. That illusion has been shattered. Despite months of advance warning as the virus spread in other countries, when America was finally tested by COVID-19, it failed.

                      “No matter what, a virus (this) was going to test the resilience of even the most well-equipped health systems”... More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not.

                      The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed and distributed a faulty test in February. Independent labs created alternatives, but were mired in bureaucracy from the FDA. In a crucial month when the American caseload shot into the tens of thousands, only hundreds of people were tested. That a biomedical powerhouse like the U.S. should so thoroughly fail to create a very simple diagnostic test was, quite literally, unimaginable. “I’m not aware of any simulations that I or others have run where we [considered] a failure of testing,” says Alexandra Phelan of Georgetown University, who works on legal and policy issues related to infectious diseases.

                      The testing fiasco was the original sin of America’s pandemic failure, the single flaw that undermined every other countermeasure. If the country could have accurately tracked the spread of the virus, hospitals could have executed their pandemic plans, girding themselves by allocating treatment rooms, ordering extra supplies, tagging in personnel, or assigning specific facilities to deal with COVID-19 cases. None of that happened. Instead, a health-care system that already runs close to full capacity, and that was already challenged by a severe flu season, was suddenly faced with a virus that had been left to spread, untracked, through communities around the country. Overstretched hospitals became overwhelmed. Basic protective equipment, such as masks, gowns, and gloves, began to run out. Beds will soon follow, as will the ventilators that provide oxygen to patients whose lungs are besieged by the virus.

                      With little room to surge during a crisis, America’s health-care system operates on the assumption that unaffected states can help beleaguered ones in an emergency. That ethic works for localized disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires, but not for a pandemic that is now in all 50 states. Cooperation has given way to competition; some worried hospitals have bought out large quantities of supplies, in the way that panicked consumers have bought out toilet paper.

                      Partly, that’s because the White House is a ghost town of scientific expertise. A pandemic-preparedness office that was part of the National Security Council was dissolved in 2018. On January 28, Luciana Borio, who was part of that team, urged the government to “act now to prevent an American epidemic,” and specifically to work with the private sector to develop fast, easy diagnostic tests. But with the office shuttered, those warnings were published in The Wall Street Journal, rather than spoken into the president’s ear. Instead of springing into action, America sat idle.

                      Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared. “Much worse,” said Ron Klain, who coordinated the U.S. response to the West African Ebola outbreak in 2014. “Beyond any expectations we had,” said Lauren Sauer, who works on disaster preparedness at Johns Hopkins Medicine. “As an American, I’m horrified,” said Seth Berkley, who heads Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “The U.S. may end up with the worst outbreak in the industrialized world.”
                      "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                      Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                      Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                      Comment


                        Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
                        http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                          There are, but there are many many more who are not, and at the very least that change will slow the growth. I haven’t fitted curves to the data myself- but it seems to me the slope of Italy and Spain are equivalent- and UK looks quite different, not just delayed- will have a crack as doing this later on, and will post.

                          I note the change to ‘clearly speculative’ from ‘being briefed that totals will exceed Italy and Spain’. They may well do, but even if Italy and Spain had no further deaths- a very unlikely event- the UK would take quite a while to reach their levels, even if the growth really is exponential- (which I will check when I have a play).
                          The "clearly speculative" was in relation to where those curves might go. The earlier statement was only relaying what someone else was told. But the Imperial modelling teams latest forecast on current measures is 20,000 deaths.
                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            I just spent the last three days at hospital with my young fella, who had an emergency appendectomy. He's on the mend now, and home, but it was not exactly where any of us wanted to be.

                            We purposely choose a hospital slightly further out of our way, and more importantly out of central London.

                            A few observations.

                            I've never, ever seen a hospital as empty in my entire life. There were 3 kids on a peads ward that has a capacity of 30. Like hospitals worldwide, they have "hot" sides of the hospital, and we were obviously on the "cold" side.

                            Even on the cold side, it was really, really strict about entry - 1 parent per child max (same for adults).

                            I spoke to a few staff, and you can see the terror in their eyes. As one of the nurses said to me "I know nothing about adult trauma, yet I could be doing it next week".

                            In the few short days we were there, they had 3 changes of policy about what to wear, even in the "cold" part of the hospital. Gloves, goggles, plastic tunics now mandatory on the cold side.

                            We got send home a day earlier than they'd like - as the consultant said to me "you are absolutely safer at home right now".

                            Every doctor, nurse, hospital cleaner, porter, security staff etc etc worldwide right now are absolutely ****ing heros.
                            Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                              I just spent the last three days at hospital with my young fella, who had an emergency appendectomy. He's on the mend now, and home, but it was not exactly where any of us wanted to be.

                              We purposely choose a hospital slightly further out of our way, and more importantly out of central London.

                              A few observations.

                              I've never, ever seen a hospital as empty in my entire life. There were 3 kids on a peads ward that has a capacity of 30. Like hospitals worldwide, they have "hot" sides of the hospital, and we were obviously on the "cold" side.

                              Even on the cold side, it was really, really strict about entry - 1 parent per child max (same for adults).

                              I spoke to a few staff, and you can see the terror in their eyes. As one of the nurses said to me "I know nothing about adult trauma, yet I could be doing it next week".

                              In the few short days we were there, they had 3 changes of policy about what to wear, even in the "cold" part of the hospital. Gloves, goggles, plastic tunics now mandatory on the cold side.

                              We got send home a day earlier than they'd like - as the consultant said to me "you are absolutely safer at home right now".

                              Every doctor, nurse, hospital cleaner, porter, security staff etc etc worldwide right now are absolutely ****ing heros.
                              Glad the young fella is ok
                              "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                              Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                              Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                              Comment


                                Jeez fitzy that must have been a much more frightening prospect than it would usually be. A hospital is the last place I'd want to be right now. Glad the wee lad is on the mend and you're all back home - it must be a huge relief.
                                Tis but a scratch.

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