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    Myself and a fried are doing a 15k jog every other day, staying a metre or 2 apart but able to chat while we jog so keeps me sane.
    Also using Microsoft teams and rgt/swift to do turbo sessions where we can chat. Even had a beer and a group chat on teams after our last one.

    Ruairi

    Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

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      Went out for a walk along the Thames/Parks in west London yesterday. I've been in less crowded public places for major sporting events. Gangs out having boozy lunches, families on cycling jaunts. It's a bit suffocating actually - places previously which would have been quite escapes are now thronged. Plenty coughing their way about the place, and about 1 in 10 might cover their mouths in some form.

      Work crew is organising team drinks via Microsoft teams, but think I'll let the situation get a bit more depressing before I resort to joining that.

      Currently, relocating back to Cork is something we're actively trying to make happen.
      "There are probably more annoying things than being hectored about African development by a wealthy Irish rock star in a cowboy hat, but I can't think of one at the moment"

      Paul Theroux

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        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



        On Campbell vs Cummings (and at the risk of going off topic on this thread), Campbell was a Comms guy, and Cummings is Policy. It makes a big difference. David Milliband was the head of Blair's policy unit before he was an MP, and Ed Miliband and Ed Balls worked with Brown. Then there was Jonathan Powell, who was Blair's Chief Of Staff. He'd worked at the US embassy in Washington and introduced Blair to the Clintons.

        Labour were elected in 97, and Balls didn't become an MP until 2004. He'd taught at Harvard, then worked on the FT, then joined Brown's team.


        So you had quite heavy hitters in a range of roles and departments, and in Blair and Brown two highly energetic and engaged politicians with a clear vision (for better or worse).


        I think the current dynamic is very different. I'd say Bannon's influence in the early Trump Whitehouse is a better parallel for Cummings.
        Absolutely- and thank you for the clarification- the comms/policy distinction is certainly very important. I meant it really in the sense that there is the dark forces figure to whom the opposition like to attribute all sorts of malefaction. As are all these guys, they are quite fascinating in their values and how they go about their business. And now back on topic!!

        Comment


          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



          But Herd Immunity in relation to measles is supported by a vaccine. Covid has no vaccine, and herd immunity would require massive infection rates. The WHO knew this was nonsense, it had already failed in Italy. I think you're giving them a very easy ride here.

          Cummings doesn't give two ****s about Boris getting re-eletected, the Tory core vote or anything else. He's a demented iconoclast.

          Cummings drive was to find a low intervention approach that would protect the economy. And he was willing to sacrifice lives to that end.


          I don't think it's a fantastical accusation - it's been the right's response to gun control in the US, to climate change the world over, to welfare reform in the UK, to the growth in homelessness, to environmental protections, to under-funding both health and social care.

          This isn't anything new. Tory policy has been predicated on the acceptance of a degree of collateral damage for a generation.
          As I made clear in my post the herd immunity idea is central to immunology (and hence vaccination). I may be giving them an easy ride, but I genuinely think it was a fairly gauche attempt to use an idea that people might understand in terms of the other vaccinations they get their kids to have.

          Although I’m sure you know I lean in a different direction to you, I really hope this societal challenge will see us all reconsider the values we have sometimes prioritised over others, and that some lasting good will come of it- not least in relation to some of the topics you mention above. I’m now going to try to avoid political posts in this forum- in so far as I can while recognising politics underpins most of our lives.

          Comment


            Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

            While anything is possible, I don’t think that’s a remotely likely situation. I realise that a lot of people don’t like Boris, although quite a few voted for him, but I think he is doing a good job, and the latest opinion poll shows that 53% agree with that (from memory disagree is about 30%). Perfect? No - of course not. Italy and UK are entirely different situations, among other things Italy only moved to proper lockdown very recently - long after the horse had bolted. UK is now doing so, but well before the spread anything like the situation in Italy. Moreover, the intervening time has been used to develop and test nationwide response plans- and for a better provisioned national service. I’m not saying it will be easy, or that there’s nothing to worry about, just that we’re responding well to a multi faceted problem of colossal proportions.
            I hope you are right, because right now it's exactly the same trajectory as Italy, except two weeks behind. The correlation couldn't be more even.

            https://twitter.com/imartincorena/st...528845824?s=19

            The worry is that Ireland and the UK have less ICU beds, less ventilators etc. Despite a call to arms, you can't make ventilators in a few weeks (and even if you could, who will certify them?).

            I don't really care for the politics, I want people to survive this dreadful disease, but if it turns out that the the majority scientific views were ignored, there will be repercussions.
            Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

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              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

              I hope you are right, because right now it's exactly the same trajectory as Italy, except two weeks behind. The correlation couldn't be more even.

              https://twitter.com/imartincorena/st...528845824?s=19

              The worry is that Ireland and the UK have less ICU beds, less ventilators etc. Despite a call to arms, you can't make ventilators in a few weeks (and even if you could, who will certify them?).

              I don't really care for the politics, I want people to survive this dreadful disease, but if it turns out that the the majority scientific views were ignored, there will be repercussions.
              I agree the current tracking of those curves is disconcerting- and that is why I think we have seen a very much more determined approach this week to last, and why it will intensify further. These data while scary arise from lots of different circumstances, the fact that the curves are similar doesn’t mean that’s not true (there’s a paper on the incredible range of different things the power law growth function fits is anyone’s interested). For example, we don’t know when any of those who died were infected, the growth we seem may just reflect the growth in cases (and without demographically representative mass screening - which would be increasingly wasteful- we won’t know whether the infection is as prevalent) or actually the risk is diminishing, or the risk of more serious outcomes is changing or not and among whom. I read somewhere the average age of Italian deaths of those with the virus is 79years of age- and of course dying from the virus (ie it is the main/only cause), or dying with the virus (ie it’s the final straw, as it were) are not distinguished in curves of this sort. [And yes, whatever the reason, it’s probably a tragedy for someone and might have been avoided.]

              It will take 2-3 weeks for us to see a deviation between the curves if the increased restrictions have an effect, and by that stage increased bed, nursing etc through buying private sector provision will make taking the strain easier. I’m sorry if this seems like blind optimism, but there isn’t a country in the ‘developed’ world I’d prefer to be in dealing with this.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Hugged Rugger View Post
                What are people doing for exercise? Walk locally or going to beach/park/etc? Went to beach once every early on but some people giving out about crowds and social distancing there now and traffic to carparks etcWhat are people doing for exercise? Walk locally or going to beach/park/etc? Went to beach once about ten days ago but some people giving out about crowds and social distancing there now
                Staying local. This morning I went for a jog around a running track close to my house. Met various people walking, running, dog-walking, kids cycling. Everyone kept their distance and passed by swiftly. Then took my elderly dog down to the beach in front of my house to try to entice her into the water (unsuccessfully). Again a few people around, including half a dozen sea swimmers - skin bright red when they emerged. The dog socialised but the owners kept their distance and exchanged brief hello's.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                  I think Ireland got the schools, pubs, social distancing done in the nick of time. The curve is starting to flatten slowly, very slowly, but that's all you need.

                  The trajectory I'm now seeing in the UK is, frankly, terrifying. If Johnson shut everything down tomorrow, and they locked us all down *properly*, the trajectory would be just about similar to Italy in 14 days time.

                  Every minute wasted adds a multiplying factor to Italy. We could have 1,000s dying each day in two weeks time.


                  I’m not convinced the figures can be trusted from Ireland yet tbh, the testing is way behind and way too slow,
                  Only fools and drunks argue over everything. If you don’t have a hangover the next day you’re not the drunk...

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post


                    It will take 2-3 weeks for us to see a deviation between the curves if the increased restrictions have an effect, and by that stage increased bed, nursing etc through buying private sector provision will make taking the strain easier. I’m sorry if this seems like blind optimism, but there isn’t a country in the ‘developed’ world I’d prefer to be in dealing with this.
                    I'd rather be in Singapore or Taiwan. I admire your optimism but i think you have been listening to the UK media too much. from the outside looking in (and not just me, most medical experts including WHO) I think the UK could be one of the worst hit in Europe. Social distancing introduced way too late and not with any conviction means it's just being taken seriously. i fear for friends and colleagues over there. Hope I'm wrong
                    The only difference between me and a madman is that I'm not mad.
                    - Salvador Dali (1904-1989)

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Upfront_1979 View Post

                      I'd rather be in Singapore or Taiwan. I admire your optimism but i think you have been listening to the UK media too much. from the outside looking in (and not just me, most medical experts including WHO) I think the UK could be one of the worst hit in Europe. Social distancing introduced way too late and not with any conviction means it's just being taken seriously. i fear for friends and colleagues over there. Hope I'm wrong
                      I listen to more than British media (not least because I find it depressingly shallow and biased at times), but I find the coverage of the UK situation in Irish, European and US at times superficial and ill informed. In terms of ‘way too late’ I think this really is an open question at this point, I understand the rationale for introducing it more slowly than other countries have, and all I can say is that this is going to be a long haul, and using your powder up at once isn’t invariably the wrong thing to do, it nor is it the wisest thing to do in every situation. I too hope you are wrong, not out of any malice or because I want to ‘win’ the argument.

                      Comment


                        There are some good data and scope to plot things on
                        https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

                        In relation to claims about the trajectory in Italy and Uk etc here are the deaths raw data plotted, you can replot as relative increases, which shows Italy and Spain now almost indistinguishable, but far ahead of UK and Ireland

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                          As if this prick of a ******** virus hasnt taken enough off us I learned this week that it is denying us the Eurovision too.

                          Including a Little Big effort from russia (who I am a genuine fan of, they are brilliantly irreverent/europoppy)




                          BUT, more annoyingly, this truly superb entry from Iceland, which is like Fr Ted had sex with Chromeo




                          I think under the rules none of this songs can be re-entered next year.

                          (this pair of songs not getting on the big stage has annoyed me as much as the rugby)

                          I am the million man.

                          Comment


                            The numbers from the USA are shocking.

                            5,429 new cases in New York to give a total there of 15,801.
                            Last edited by glorob; 22nd-March-2020, 19:00. Reason: Number reported has been adjusted downwards.

                            Comment


                              We went for a drive today to Garretstown.

                              It was like a Summers day with the crowds there.

                              All that was missing was a championship match on the radio.

                              Social distancing was being seen more in the breach than the observance.

                              I have heard similar reports from Helvic and Ardmore.

                              Comment


                                Close the national parks.

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