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    From the Times today....




    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

    Comment


      I don't get the Cummings thing. He can only have so much power, and is a very convenient buffer for more direct focus on the policy decisions of actual Tory politicians. You'd almost wonder if he's taking one for the team allowing himself to be portrayed as the evil advisor that the poor gullible Tories have been hoidwinked by.
      "There are probably more annoying things than being hectored about African development by a wealthy Irish rock star in a cowboy hat, but I can't think of one at the moment"

      Paul Theroux

      Comment


        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

        From the Times today....



        But but but but...........the 'science' experts on here promised me everything was premised on the pure correct science.
        Maybe they meant the science was eugenics?
        Stand up for the Ulcer men

        Comment


          Originally posted by busby View Post
          I don't get the Cummings thing. He can only have so much power, and is a very convenient buffer for more direct focus on the policy decisions of actual Tory politicians. You'd almost wonder if he's taking one for the team allowing himself to be portrayed as the evil advisor that the poor gullible Tories have been hoidwinked by.


          The power of someone like Cummings isn't terribly limited in the current set up. Anything that doesn't need legislation is handled by the Executive. His boss is the head of the Executive, and completely uninterested in the job. It's a very dangerous combination.


          All recent British PMs have had these advisor types. But the combination of Cumming's zeal and Johnson's dilettantism is a toxic brew.


          Javid resigning as chancellor was because he wouldn't replace his own advisors with Cumming's men, and when push came to shove the Chancellor went.


          I think that shows where the power lies.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

            But but but but...........the 'science' experts on here promised me everything was premised on the pure correct science.
            Maybe they meant the science was eugenics?

            It was premised on science. Well, some science, some of which was wrong.


            The important thing to note I think is that Scientists only ever advise Governments of what the situation is, what the options are and what the consequences might be. And there isn't always consensus.

            And so it is left to politicians to decide how to frame policy in light of that advice.

            In theory, they are retrospectively accountable for those decisions. In theory.
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

              is the NHS that great? I hope it lives up to the propaganda but let’s see.
              Yes, absolutely, and it is far more than hospitals. It is excellent, especially for critical care- and free, as are GP appointments, and prescriptions for heavy use, and minimal cost for others. Moreover, as we’ve seen overnight, it is being supplemented by the large private health provision with services being bought at cost by the NHS.

              Comment


                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                I think Ireland got the schools, pubs, social distancing done in the nick of time. The curve is starting to flatten slowly, very slowly, but that's all you need.

                The trajectory I'm now seeing in the UK is, frankly, terrifying. If Johnson shut everything down tomorrow, and they locked us all down *properly*, the trajectory would be just about similar to Italy in 14 days time.

                Every minute wasted adds a multiplying factor to Italy. We could have 1,000s dying each day in two weeks time.


                While anything is possible, I don’t think that’s a remotely likely situation. I realise that a lot of people don’t like Boris, although quite a few voted for him, but I think he is doing a good job, and the latest opinion poll shows that 53% agree with that (from memory disagree is about 30%). Perfect? No - of course not. Italy and UK are entirely different situations, among other things Italy only moved to proper lockdown very recently - long after the horse had bolted. UK is now doing so, but well before the spread anything like the situation in Italy. Moreover, the intervening time has been used to develop and test nationwide response plans- and for a better provisioned national service. I’m not saying it will be easy, or that there’s nothing to worry about, just that we’re responding well to a multi faceted problem of colossal proportions.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



                  The power of someone like Cummings isn't terribly limited in the current set up. Anything that doesn't need legislation is handled by the Executive. His boss is the head of the Executive, and completely uninterested in the job. It's a very dangerous combination.


                  All recent British PMs have had these advisor types. But the combination of Cumming's zeal and Johnson's dilettantism is a toxic brew.


                  Javid resigning as chancellor was because he wouldn't replace his own advisors with Cumming's men, and when push came to shove the Chancellor went.


                  I think that shows where the power lies.
                  Can understand the dynamics, but we're talking about one of the most canabalistic political parties in living memory. Tall poppies don't survive well in such environments.

                  I worked with a true blue council outside London a while back, and ran some strategy workshops with councillors. The vast majority of the tories were over 70, and popping more pills than an Aussie tourist at a Berlin rave. I'd give the bulk of them a 50% chance of survival if this hit. They're the backbone of who voted Johnson in as leader. If the mud sticks on this stuff, then he won't be long making (or be pushed to make) Cummings walk the plank.

                  May was overwhelmed by colleagues to force her to ditch her advisors. They'll do the same here if they feel under threat.
                  "There are probably more annoying things than being hectored about African development by a wealthy Irish rock star in a cowboy hat, but I can't think of one at the moment"

                  Paul Theroux

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



                    The power of someone like Cummings isn't terribly limited in the current set up. Anything that doesn't need legislation is handled by the Executive. His boss is the head of the Executive, and completely uninterested in the job. It's a very dangerous combination.


                    All recent British PMs have had these advisor types. But the combination of Cumming's zeal and Johnson's dilettantism is a toxic brew.


                    Javid resigning as chancellor was because he wouldn't replace his own advisors with Cumming's men, and when push came to shove the Chancellor went.


                    I think that shows where the power lies.
                    The right had its bete noir in Campbell, the left has its in Cummings.

                    Herd immunity is a widely used concept in immunology, and the basis of how measles, etc etc are controlled. It will also be important for Covid, in the future, but the media delighted in the possibility that Cummings wanted to sacrifice the elderly for the sake of the young. Despite the conservatives new found popularity in labour areas, the fact is that killing off the elderly would reduce the conservative vote- I seriously doubt that’s part of the strategy.

                    On a related note- can heartily recommend Hilary Mantels final book in the Cromwell (no not that one) trilogy- have just finished it and it’s a wonderfully engaging read - but for anyone setting out on the journey, you need to read the other two first. Nor there was a guy who could do political machinations!

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                      The right had its bete noir in Campbell, the left has its in Cummings.

                      Herd immunity is a widely used concept in immunology, and the basis of how measles, etc etc are controlled. It will also be important for Covid, in the future, but the media delighted in the possibility that Cummings wanted to sacrifice the elderly for the sake of the young. Despite the conservatives new found popularity in labour areas, the fact is that killing off the elderly would reduce the conservative vote- I seriously doubt that’s part of the strategy.

                      On a related note- can heartily recommend Hilary Mantels final book in the Cromwell (no not that one) trilogy- have just finished it and it’s a wonderfully engaging read - but for anyone setting out on the journey, you need to read the other two first. Nor there was a guy who could do political machinations!


                      But Herd Immunity in relation to measles is supported by a vaccine. Covid has no vaccine, and herd immunity would require massive infection rates. The WHO knew this was nonsense, it had already failed in Italy. I think you're giving them a very easy ride here.

                      Cummings doesn't give two ****s about Boris getting re-eletected, the Tory core vote or anything else. He's a demented iconoclast.

                      Cummings drive was to find a low intervention approach that would protect the economy. And he was willing to sacrifice lives to that end.


                      I don't think it's a fantastical accusation - it's been the right's response to gun control in the US, to climate change the world over, to welfare reform in the UK, to the growth in homelessness, to environmental protections, to under-funding both health and social care.

                      This isn't anything new. Tory policy has been predicated on the acceptance of a degree of collateral damage for a generation.
                      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by busby View Post

                        Can understand the dynamics, but we're talking about one of the most canabalistic political parties in living memory. Tall poppies don't survive well in such environments.

                        I worked with a true blue council outside London a while back, and ran some strategy workshops with councillors. The vast majority of the tories were over 70, and popping more pills than an Aussie tourist at a Berlin rave. I'd give the bulk of them a 50% chance of survival if this hit. They're the backbone of who voted Johnson in as leader. If the mud sticks on this stuff, then he won't be long making (or be pushed to make) Cummings walk the plank.

                        May was overwhelmed by colleagues to force her to ditch her advisors. They'll do the same here if they feel under threat.


                        But "Boris" won them an election. May made a balls of it. Right now all the capital sits with him. If he's weakened that balance will shift. But right now they're in hock to him. Being able to despatch a chancellor is no mean statement of power.
                        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                          The right had its bete noir in Campbell, the left has its in Cummings.

                          Herd immunity is a widely used concept in immunology, and the basis of how measles, etc etc are controlled. It will also be important for Covid, in the future, but the media delighted in the possibility that Cummings wanted to sacrifice the elderly for the sake of the young. Despite the conservatives new found popularity in labour areas, the fact is that killing off the elderly would reduce the conservative vote- I seriously doubt that’s part of the strategy.

                          On a related note- can heartily recommend Hilary Mantels final book in the Cromwell (no not that one) trilogy- have just finished it and it’s a wonderfully engaging read - but for anyone setting out on the journey, you need to read the other two first. Nor there was a guy who could do political machinations!


                          On Campbell vs Cummings (and at the risk of going off topic on this thread), Campbell was a Comms guy, and Cummings is Policy. It makes a big difference. David Milliband was the head of Blair's policy unit before he was an MP, and Ed Miliband and Ed Balls worked with Brown. Then there was Jonathan Powell, who was Blair's Chief Of Staff. He'd worked at the US embassy in Washington and introduced Blair to the Clintons.

                          Labour were elected in 97, and Balls didn't become an MP until 2004. He'd taught at Harvard, then worked on the FT, then joined Brown's team.


                          So you had quite heavy hitters in a range of roles and departments, and in Blair and Brown two highly energetic and engaged politicians with a clear vision (for better or worse).


                          I think the current dynamic is very different. I'd say Bannon's influence in the early Trump Whitehouse is a better parallel for Cummings.
                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            What are people doing for exercise? Walk locally or going to beach/park/etc? Went to beach once about ten days ago but some people giving out about crowds and social distancing there now

                            (Don't know what happened last edit)
                            Last edited by Hugged Rugger; 22nd-March-2020, 15:39.
                            "Some people don't know their easy lives... I wouldn't be so ungrateful" - Fiacre Ryan - #AutismAndMe

                            Comment


                              I'm a moderately regular user of the NHS, which is why I said the staff are generally brilliant. I'm also a staunch supporter of the concept of healthcare which is free to all at the point of delivery. That doesn't blind me to the way a chainsaw has been taken to it over the past 10+ years in particular, or reassure me that this pandemic is going to amount to a bit of bother which we'll muddle through.


                              Doctors warn coronavirus could overwhelm NHS ‘within weeks’

                              Intensive care audit shows sharp rise in admissions to critical care as London hospitals struggle to cope

                              The numbers of coronavirus patients needing life-or-death care have been doubling every three days, a report by senior doctors has revealed. London is worst affected, but the rest of the UK will soon be hit with a similar surge, the document warns.

                              The audit of intensive care carried out since the epidemic began shows that patients needing the highest level of help soared from 50 on 9 March to almost 200 on 19 March – and doctors fear this spike could turn into a nationwide surge within a few weeks.

                              The report, by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre analyses all admissions to critical care units in UK up until midnight last Thursday. London treated 54% of 196 patients, although the rest of England could start to catch up within seven to 14 days. “Other regions, especially in urban areas, would be wise to see what is happening in London and use lessons from London to assist in their preparation,” one specialist said.

                              The report also provides the first in-depth profile of those who have needed intensive care. Most (139) were male, 71% of all cases; the median age was 64 although 37% were under 60; only 18 patients had “severe co-morbidities”, such as underlying heart conditions or lung disease; while 63% were overweight, obese or morbidly obese. Two patients had been pregnant within the last six weeks.

                              In a narrower study of 33 of the patients, it was found 16 died while 17 survived to be discharged to lower-level care. These patients spent an average of three days in intensive care before dying or being transferred, which if replicated could relieve the intense pressure on hospitals.

                              On Saturday it was announced there were 56 new UK deaths, triggering fears that hospitals could run out of intensive care beds in weeks. Already, London hospitals are struggling to cope as staff are forced to self-isolate. One teaching hospital in the capital has 300 absent staff, the Observer understands.

                              Simon Walsh, deputy chair of the British Medical Association’s consultants committee, said: “Unless the trajectory is very significantly changed by the government’s measures, then the demands at the peak are going to massively exceed our critical care bed capacity across the UK.”

                              Northwick Park hospital in north London had to declare a “critical incident” last Thursday because it had too few available staff to intubate its intake of seriously ill coronavirus patients, the Observer understands.

                              Larger, urban hospitals have been turning specialist wards into intensive care units to deal with the crisis, but rural hospitals have relatively few ICU beds but a more elderly population, Walsh warned. Models suggest London needs a 130% rise in critical care capacity. “But in rural locations it would have to increase by 600%. You can imagine that’s difficult if not impossible to achieve. Which means patients being transferred to urban centres, which brings new challenges.”

                              On Saturday it was announced that more beds, ventilators and 20,000 qualified extra staff would be made available from next week – thanks to a deal between NHS England and private hospitals. The extra resources should also help the NHS to deliver other urgent operations and cancer treatments, said an official.

                              It has also been revealed that taxis are delivering vital personal protective equipment (PPE) amid concerns there is a mask shortage in key regions. In some cases staff are being given out-of-date equipment, some of which has been rebadged as fit for purpose, unions say.Rachel Harrison, of the GMB union, which represents NHS ambulance workers,said moves to take over the PPE delivery by the NHSand the Department of Health were welcome but added that some regions were strugglingto get the equipment. “The main issue is that the stuff that is coming through, particularly masks, is out of date,” some by seven years, she added.

                              Lisa Anderson, a consultant cardiologist at London’s St George’s hospital, said staff were not getting the equipment they need. She said the government had changed NHS rules and was no longer compliant with World Health Organisation recommendations, which require a full gown and visor. NHS staff only have to wear a simple face mask, short gloves and a pinafore apron. “This is not just about the risk to us and our families. We are travelling home on the tube, on buses,” she told BBC Radio 4. “We are cross-infecting everybody at the moment.”

                              Susan Hopkins, deputy director of the national infection service at Public Health England, said: “The recommended PPE includes a fluid resistant surgical mask, single-use disposable apron, and gloves and eye protection if required. Higher-level PPE is available.” NHS guidance recommends the same masks as WHO but the UK has long had a “bare below the elbows” policy, which PHE says allows optimum hand hygiene, although full-sleeve gowns are recommended for high-risk procedures.
                              Tis but a scratch.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Hugged Rugger View Post
                                What are people doing for exercise? Walk locally or going to beach/park/etc? Went to beach once about ten days ago but some people giving out about crowds and social distancing there now.
                                Body weight HIIT in the mornings

                                walking the kids and puppy in the afternoonS
                                Only fools and drunks argue over everything. If you don’t have a hangover the next day you’re not the drunk...

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