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    Originally posted by Jackie Brown View Post

    panic!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Well, maybe be very concerned. Especially if you have older relatives or vulnerable people in the family.
    The Italian experience is, well, see for yourself:

    "5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest."
    Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

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      Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post
      Very interesting plot here of the growth rates-Digging around further it is claimed that Japan has low rates because it is testing very few people.
      The testing is probably one cause but human behaviour is certainly another cause. I imagine the Japanese are doing as told and anyone with potential symptoms is staying put and telling immediate household members to do likewise. In Europe we'd rather take the chance on the holiday and not lose the money over potentially catching the virus. If our trend follows other countries we're probably looking at 300 - 400 cases.
      He's a guy who gets up at six o'clock in the morning regardless of what time it is.

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        Originally posted by redherring View Post

        The testing is probably one cause but human behaviour is certainly another cause. I imagine the Japanese are doing as told and anyone with potential symptoms is staying put and telling immediate household members to do likewise. In Europe we'd rather take the chance on the holiday and not lose the money over potentially catching the virus. If our trend follows other countries we're probably looking at 300 - 400 cases.
        Some of the discussion is around whether the government isn’t arranging testing in order to protect the olympics...

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          UK and irelands testing rate is similar- US has very serious issues-but maybe this is the rock on which Trumps bluster perishes.
          Last edited by jagawayagain; 11th-March-2020, 09:11.

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            That orange mess and his treatment of the people on the cruise ship is both cruel and unsurprising. A horrible act and will kill people on the ship


            Here is an expert on Rogan this week about whats happening:


            Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info
            I am the million man.

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              The Gulf is in an odd place.The Saudis grounded flights to the UAE and the rest of the GCC. Emiratis are giving 14 day quarantine to anyone arriving from a list of 10 countries, and that list can change by the day. Jobs being lost already, and some hotels will be mothballed until the Autumn.

              I'd anticipate that a lot of businesses here will go to the wall before this is all over.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post
                Very interesting plot here of the growth rates-Digging around further it is claimed that Japan has low rates because it is testing very few people.
                This graph isn't particularly clear so I'm not sure what the inference is in terms of "days behind Italy" is, but the UK reported its first two cases on 31 January, the exact same day as Italy. I'm not saying the response in the UK has been any better or that things won't get much worse there, but not every country in the World is going to be hit in the same way by this.

                This isn't specifically directed at you or anything, but people really need to start filtering information. I have my boss in work today walking around telling staff to stockpile nurofen based on third hand information. This is not helpful.

                Most people in Ireland will not contract this virus.
                Most people who do will suffer little to no ill-effects.
                The issue here will be access to appropriate health services for the vulnerable so it is incumbent on everyone to take the necessary precautions to prevent this virus spreading.

                This is going to get a lot worse in Ireland before it gets better. I'd suggest that people ignore figures and social media until we see things improving because they will do nothing but feed anxiety. I realise that might be difficult but if some good is to come from this mess it might be that we spend less time listening to what "Siobhan's first cousin who's a doctor" has to say on anything.
                "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

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                  Siobhans first cousin is a thundering bitch, her reign of terror knows no end.
                  I am the million man.

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                    Sensible advice Jenta.

                    I would add that the biggest issue for me is that people are focusing on themselves instead of others. It probably won't be fatal to younger people, and those with no existing comorbidities, but to older people and people with diabetes, heart disease, autoimmune diseases it can be.

                    If people are asked to self isolate, it may be pain in the hole for them, but it may save someone elses life.
                    Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                      This graph isn't particularly clear so I'm not sure what the inference is in terms of "days behind Italy" is, but the UK reported its first two cases on 31 January, the exact same day as Italy. I'm not saying the response in the UK has been any better or that things won't get much worse there, but not every country in the World is going to be hit in the same way by this.
                      So the graph is plotting the escalation in cases (not when one was first detected) detected in each country- and its the difference in slopes that leads to the 'x-days' behind Italy. [dates are on the x-axis, the y-axis is a log plot of case frequency]...

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                        So the graph is plotting the escalation in cases (not when one was first detected) detected in each country- and its the difference in slopes that leads to the 'x-days' behind Italy. [dates are on the x-axis, the y-axis is a log plot of case frequency, with days behind estimated at, I believe, March 9th]...

                        Comment


                          I wonder is this one of those things that will only be dealt with once a vaccine has been taken or the immune system has dealt with it once. A bit like Chicken Pox.

                          In that case, all they can do is slow the rate of exposure as best as possible so the elderly and weakened aren't all hit at the same time and they will have access to additional medical support.

                          The whole world cries out peace, freedom and a few less fat bastards eating all the pie.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by MunsterTel View Post
                            I wonder is this one of those things that will only be dealt with once a vaccine has been taken or the immune system has dealt with it once. A bit like Chicken Pox.

                            In that case, all they can do is slow the rate of exposure as best as possible so the elderly and weakened aren't all hit at the same time and they will have access to additional medical support.
                            That's exactly it. The only response to a virus is immune without the vaccine. If you have a few bob to spare the stock market is the place to go now.
                            He's a guy who gets up at six o'clock in the morning regardless of what time it is.

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                              Have decided to not do my St Patricks Brunch. Usually have 40 odd people over on a Sunday, Irish breakfast, brown bread, Guinness etc. I think its less to protect the family more about taking seriously the recommendation to limit contacts in general to protect everybody.

                              I was just in Ireland for a few days and I was impressed by the Irish politicians - I know its easier to whine about what they do wrong, any maybe they are weeks behind on this thing but they seem to be waking up, and the messaging seems pretty consistent. Yes, cancelling Sat Patricks day should have been done a week earlier but they did it. And they are making fast policy decisions to hep people financially who need to quarantine. But in the US its truly scary. No testing, and no clarity on when testing will be available. Lies from the President. Job #1 for public health officials seems to be to praise the administration and not say anything to piss off the man child in the WH. And hope he doesn't undercut what you say in a Tweet. priority seems to be calming markets and protecting big business - airlines, cruise ships, shale oil manufacturers. They may be important the issue is they seem to be #1. I fear it will get very ugly in the US. Even if the local authorities do a good job, the Feds also need to be top of their game and right now they are far from it.

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                                1st death in Ireland,


                                another 82,999 to come..*




                                *.. according to Siobhan on Twitter
                                Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

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