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    Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
    Kiwis have 2 cases, what a total kick in the goolies
    Two cases imported from the UK. If they can slip through in New Zealand It show the pointlessness of our 14 day quarantine for travellers, when we have an open border with the UK.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

      You're using a false equivalency there. Nobodys writing anyone off. I clearly stated that we need to look after the at risk population, while the rest of us get on with it. The at risk population weren't looked after properly in the initial outbreak and the guaranteed future enquiry will apportion the blame for this. You may have heard of the care/nursing homes where nearly 70% of the deaths occurred?

      We now have procedures in place (testing and tracking/PPE/hospital plans/etc) to deal with another outbreak and even the CMO has said that there won't be another lockdown.

      Yes a small percentage of healthy people will unfortunately die, but that's what happens in everyday life. People will have died and many more will die unnecessary deaths from things like untreated heart conditions or cancer. Possibly more than will die from Covid 19. I'm sure it will be of little comfort to their families that we shut down all other medical facilities to deal with Covid 19.
      I agree with this. Further, according to a leading specialist in a well regarded hospital in Italy, their virus has mutated to a much more benign version of itself, with far lower associated virus load, and hence severity of illness and likelyhood of death, etc, etc....

      This is good news, and if the virus mutates here along similar lines, we will see no second wave, and we will be well over the worst at this stage.

      P.s. Now, of course, we just have to pay for all of this, including some of the more excessive lockdown measures & lockdown fallout e g. Shut down of private hospitals, elective surgeries, national cancer screening programs, associated backlogs and waiting lists due to the gross misallocation of resources during lockdown.......
      Last edited by Daithi; 16-June-2020, 09:24.
      ____________________________________________
      Munster were great when they were Munster.

      alas they are just north munster now.......
      ____________________________________________

      Comment


        Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

        Two cases imported from the UK. If they can slip through in New Zealand It show the pointlessness of our 14 day quarantine for travellers, when we have an open border with the UK.
        I was thinking more about the Kiwis than ourselves tbh, thinking all was going back to normal and then a setback.

        hopefully they can keep their sports events attended etc
        I am the million man.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Cowboy View Post

          I was thinking more about the Kiwis than ourselves tbh, thinking all was going back to normal and then a setback.

          hopefully they can keep their sports events attended etc
          Of course they can. Hygiene, distancing and TTI are all well in place, so I'd say they'll be able to quickly zero in on 'this outbreak' imho.
          ____________________________________________
          Munster were great when they were Munster.

          alas they are just north munster now.......
          ____________________________________________

          Comment


            Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

            You're using a false equivalency there. Nobodys writing anyone off. I clearly stated that we need to look after the at risk population, while the rest of us get on with it. The at risk population weren't looked after properly in the initial outbreak and the guaranteed future enquiry will apportion the blame for this. You may have heard of the care/nursing homes where nearly 70% of the deaths occurred?

            We now have procedures in place (testing and tracking/PPE/hospital plans/etc) to deal with another outbreak and even the CMO has said that there won't be another lockdown.

            Yes a small percentage of healthy people will unfortunately die, but that's what happens in everyday life. People will have died and many more will die unnecessary deaths from things like untreated heart conditions or cancer. Possibly more than will die from Covid 19. I'm sure it will be of little comfort to their families that we shut down all other medical facilities to deal with Covid 19.
            How is it false equivalence? The only using that is you. We have no idea how many more people will die from Covid v cancer, because we have no idea how many will die from Covid. We should have an idea of how many will die from cancer, but funnily enough everyone who is mad keen to open everything up is unable or unwilling to publish those figures.
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            Comment


              Originally posted by Daithi View Post

              Of course they can. Hygiene, distancing and TTI are all well in place, so I'd say they'll be able to quickly zero in on 'this outbreak' imho.
              New Zealand ended the requirement as to social distancing last week as far as I know.
              "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

              Comment


                Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                New Zealand ended the requirement as to social distancing last week as far as I know.
                OMG..... but hang on, I wonder could they just re-introduce it if necessary maybe!?

                Duh.
                Last edited by Daithi; 16-June-2020, 12:07.
                ____________________________________________
                Munster were great when they were Munster.

                alas they are just north munster now.......
                ____________________________________________

                Comment


                  BBC News - Dexamethasone is a life-saving coronavirus drug
                  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281
                  ____________________________________________
                  Munster were great when they were Munster.

                  alas they are just north munster now.......
                  ____________________________________________

                  Comment


                    That's encouraging, but the headline would make you think it's a miracle cure. What it actually does is improve the survival rates for people who get seriously ill with Covid - by one in eight of those who end up needing oxygen, and by one in twenty five of those who end up being put on a ventilator.

                    Now that's still pretty good, especially if you end up being one of those individuals for whom it is actually a life-saving drug. But unfortunately it's not a game-changer in terms of the wider socio-economic impact of the pandemic or of its threat to public health.
                    Tis but a scratch.

                    Comment


                      It's better than nothing!!

                      Also, normally when they find out how these legacy drugs improve outcomes they can improve efficacy in treatments to bring up the goals for vs against columns...

                      P.s. Refer your other comments to the BBC headline writers....
                      ____________________________________________
                      Munster were great when they were Munster.

                      alas they are just north munster now.......
                      ____________________________________________

                      Comment


                        Yes, I think I indicated that it was better than nothing with my use of phrases such as "that's encouraging" and "that's still pretty good". And my comment about the headline was indeed a criticism of the Beeb - my concern is that this will be seized on by the likes of Boris Johnson as an excuse to effectively throw caution to the wind and "open up our world-beating economy" or some such balderdash, while sweeping the actual public health effects of doing so under the carpet.
                        Tis but a scratch.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                          How is it false equivalence? The only using that is you. We have no idea how many more people will die from Covid v cancer, because we have no idea how many will die from Covid. We should have an idea of how many will die from cancer, but funnily enough everyone who is mad keen to open everything up is unable or unwilling to publish those figures.
                          The false equivalence is you saying that calling for reopening means that people are writing off lives. That's something that you made up in your own mind. Every poster on here calling for reopening has said that reopening needs to happen in tandem with continued social distancing, mask wearing, good hygiene practices, test and tracing and protecting the most vulnerable.

                          As to the non covid deaths, how can you honestly say that 6 months with out screening ('some' screening is to return in the late summer) and little if any treatment in the last three months for those already diagnosed won't lead to extra unnecessary deaths? You say nobody can put a number to cancer deaths while at the same time saying that nobody being able to put a number on Covid deaths is the reason to continue along the same path. I've previously posted a leading oncologist saying that up to 1800 cancer patients could die unnecessarily in Ireland. How about the MacMillan Trust in the UK saying that up to 2000 cases are going undiagnosed every week and that there could be at leat 5000 excess deaths in England due to the last three months? https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-uk-every-week And that's just cancer services. Cardiac services, renal services, diabetic services etc are all in the same boat. There also the multiple warnings from mental health experts about the numbers of extra suicides.

                          However it's all moot because we and the rest of Europe are opening up. Countries (not just a few of us on here) have realised that those services (including Covid services) need to be paid for and that people need to keep their jobs for that to happen. And that all this can be done while protecting the vulnerable.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Daithi View Post

                            I agree with this. Further, according to a leading specialist in a well regarded hospital in Italy, their virus has mutated to a much more benign version of itself, with far lower associated virus load, and hence severity of illness and likelyhood of death, etc, etc....

                            This is good news, and if the virus mutates here along similar lines, we will see no second wave, and we will be well over the worst at this stage.
                            It has been shown - repeatedly - that that Italian doctor was wrong. There is no mutation. It is not less deadly.

                            https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9543446.html





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                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

                              The false equivalence is you saying that calling for reopening means that people are writing off lives. That's something that you made up in your own mind. Every poster on here calling for reopening has said that reopening needs to happen in tandem with continued social distancing, mask wearing, good hygiene practices, test and tracing and protecting the most vulnerable.

                              As to the non covid deaths, how can you honestly say that 6 months with out screening ('some' screening is to return in the late summer) and little if any treatment in the last three months for those already diagnosed won't lead to extra unnecessary deaths? You say nobody can put a number to cancer deaths while at the same time saying that nobody being able to put a number on Covid deaths is the reason to continue along the same path. I've previously posted a leading oncologist saying that up to 1800 cancer patients could die unnecessarily in Ireland. How about the MacMillan Trust in the UK saying that up to 2000 cases are going undiagnosed every week and that there could be at leat 5000 excess deaths in England due to the last three months? https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-uk-every-week And that's just cancer services. Cardiac services, renal services, diabetic services etc are all in the same boat. There also the multiple warnings from mental health experts about the numbers of extra suicides.

                              However it's all moot because we and the rest of Europe are opening up. Countries (not just a few of us on here) have realised that those services (including Covid services) need to be paid for and that people need to keep their jobs for that to happen. And that all this can be done while protecting the vulnerable.
                              It's hardly made up in my mind. It is a simple calculation - how many Covid deaths are deemed acceptable v opening up the economy. As unpalatable some people might find it, that is the question every govt has to answer.

                              Can you point out where I said that 6 months without screening won't lead to extra deaths from cancer etc? I did say you need to calculate those extra deaths versus Covid deaths. We know one half of the equation (roughly how many people will get X cancer in a year) but we have no idea of the second half of the equation.

                              I get the economy is on fire, but you know what, it doesn't' have to be that way. We can run a deficit for a number of years. Actually running balanced budget right now is bad thing, because you are literally destroying money. I will admit that Ireland has it tougher than independent countries because it can't create a truck load of coronobonds.

                              Finally, I hope I am utterly wrong about a second wave. I'll be delighted if you or someone reposts this in 6 months time and says "see, ya eejit". Equally I will take no solace if a second wave hit like a tsunami, and it is blamed on opening up the economy too quickly.

                              I will say that right now non one - you ,me, govts, experts, anyone has a f**king clue what the situation will be in 6 months time.
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                              Comment


                                Originally posted by mr chips View Post
                                That's encouraging, but the headline would make you think it's a miracle cure. What it actually does is improve the survival rates for people who get seriously ill with Covid - by one in eight of those who end up needing oxygen, and by one in twenty five of those who end up being put on a ventilator.

                                Now that's still pretty good, especially if you end up being one of those individuals for whom it is actually a life-saving drug. But unfortunately it's not a game-changer in terms of the wider socio-economic impact of the pandemic or of its threat to public health.
                                It's actually better news than that. The graphic used on the BBC website is poor. The reduction in deaths for patients on ventilators is almost one third and for those on oxygen it is one fifth. In the context of all the drug trials that is pretty significant.

                                For patients on ventilators, it cut the risk of death from 40% to 28%.

                                For patients needing oxygen, it cut the risk of death from 25% to 20%.

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