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    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
    Interesting that the 3 Stooges led countries - USA, UK and Brazil are looking certain to fill the 1st 3 places in the Mortality Chumpions League, with smart alecs Sweden hoping to clinch the final qualifying place.
    Nope, wrong, yet again.

    Mortality needs to be measured in total extra deaths (not just covid ones).

    At this stage, this should be obvious even to a three year old!?
    Last edited by Daithi; 10-June-2020, 13:37.
    ____________________________________________
    Munster were great when they were Munster.

    alas they are just north munster now.......
    ____________________________________________

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      Originally posted by Yatenga View Post

      I just think its way too soon to say the Swedish way was right. Public health wise or economically. It was brave of them to take a different path - but ultimately brave or foolhardy hard to say
      And there are so many confounding factors I'm not sure we will ever be able to say for sure
      Looking at their numbers vis a vis the other Nordics suggest maybe they should have done things differently but again its early
      The other thing is these are complex situations with multiple variables - so if example if COVID has moderated in terms of its lethality (and this is just a hypothetical) how could any epidemiologist quantify the likelihood of that happening. And base policy on those %s?
      I agree with you on some of this, & disagree with you on some of the rest above.

      I agree that it's too early, hence why I wrote that ' I think it's likely to be shown that overall Sweden's approach was better than Ireland's....', but equally, likely worse than Holland's & Germany's, say. We'll see fully in time, but even at this stage, the likely best countries at managing this pandemic are pretty obvious imho.

      Also whilst there are many confounding factors, it should be possible to reasonably compare different countries data & the effectiveness of different approaches imho.

      Finally, I listened with interest to Professor Luke O'Neill on newstalk very early on when this virus was emerging, state emphatically that most Corona like viruses mutate into more benign versions of themselves as they proliferate (iirc I wrote about that specific mitigating quality of viruses here). So any public health epidemiologist worth their salt, should be able to quantify that probability from the off, and factor it's likelihood into sensible public health policy recommendations..... this wasn't (& isn't being) done in Ireland, which was & is still stupid

      Finally, in Ireland, Nphet (& the HSE) got the forecast numbers spectacularly wrong. (Anyone really surprised ??) That is a fact, that has been conceded by NPHet. They expected something like a peak of ~3000 in ICU with Covid, they got something like ~600.

      It transpires that research appears to show some level of immunity is conferred on some of the population from exposure to previous Corona viruses i.e. seasonal flus, of which we get a lot in Ireland (versus Italy, Spain, etc). So , that's great news. Tbh, I'm not overly bothered that NPHet got that wrong initially, & were as a result far too cautious, (& incurred massive unnecessary expense), but what would be absolutely unforgiveable now imho, is if they don't learn fully from this experience, & the actual data, so that more realistic & far more accurate modelling & policy is in place for the autumn & into the future. That is the very least we should expect at this stage imho.
      Last edited by Daithi; 11-June-2020, 21:57.
      ____________________________________________
      Munster were great when they were Munster.

      alas they are just north munster now.......
      ____________________________________________

      Comment


        Meanwhile...........back on planet Earth............
        Stand up for the Ulcer men

        Comment


          Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

          UHL want to use it for non Covid step down cases until the extra 80 beds come online at the hospital. Really they've need these extra beds for years and it's one of the main reasons for the over crowding. UL had already cancelled all sporting activity for the first semester and the plan is to keep it in place until November.
          of course they are, massive earner for UL as they've had to be arm twisted in refunding their student accommodation fees, facing big losses in income, (as all 3rd level colleges are). No wonder el President stepped down earlier, got his gold watch no doubt..
          Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

          Comment



            Interesting statement from Ferguson today (though PP has him in the bin already so perhaps it will make no odds) but touched on the question above re: the 4-5 days delay in lockdown and how much impact it made in the Uk.


            "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have then reduced the final death toll by at least half".


            That's 30,000 people.

            Rebuttal machine swinging into action as we speak...
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
              Interesting statement from Ferguson today (though PP has him in the bin already so perhaps it will make no odds) but touched on the question above re: the 4-5 days delay in lockdown and how much impact it made in the Uk.


              "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have then reduced the final death toll by at least half".


              That's 30,000 people.

              Rebuttal machine swinging into action as we speak...
              Well it was pretty obvious that when we officially locked down in Ireland we were already in the middle of the peak in terms of infections. Thankfully, the reality is that the people had already largely locked down at that stage. In the first week of March we had stopped work travel and visits.

              Govt. wise - Ireland was inconsistent - sensible decision on the Italian rugby match and then no restrictions on people travelling. We had no restrictions on Cheltenham etc.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                Interesting statement from Ferguson today (though PP has him in the bin already so perhaps it will make no odds) but touched on the question above re: the 4-5 days delay in lockdown and how much impact it made in the Uk.


                "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have then reduced the final death toll by at least half".


                That's 30,000 people.

                Rebuttal machine swinging into action as we speak...
                This was the advice form the experts

                https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/st...050195974?s=21

                Comment


                  Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                  Easter is just around the corner. Maybe extended Easter holidays?
                  how right you were....

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                    Well it was pretty obvious that when we officially locked down in Ireland we were already in the middle of the peak in terms of infections. Thankfully, the reality is that the people had already largely locked down at that stage. In the first week of March we had stopped work travel and visits.

                    Govt. wise - Ireland was inconsistent - sensible decision on the Italian rugby match and then no restrictions on people travelling. We had no restrictions on Cheltenham etc.
                    Cheltenham is a a bit of an unknown for me. It - and the Liverpool game - have been linked to lots of deaths in the UK.

                    Yet I cannot see any link between Cheltenham and Irish cases rising rapidly. Sure, there were definitely a few cases in Ireland linked to Cheltenham, but given 60,000 - 80,000 Irish people went there, I don't understand why it wasn't the tipping point.

                    https://m.independent.ie/sport/horse...-39272513.html

                    It's very, very odd.
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                    Comment


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                      He is that's for sure



                      Stand up for the Ulcer men

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                        Cheltenham is a a bit of an unknown for me. It - and the Liverpool game - have been linked to lots of deaths in the UK.

                        Yet I cannot see any link between Cheltenham and Irish cases rising rapidly. Sure, there were definitely a few cases in Ireland linked to Cheltenham, but given 60,000 - 80,000 Irish people went there, I don't understand why it wasn't the tipping point.

                        https://m.independent.ie/sport/horse...-39272513.html

                        It's very, very odd.
                        I have heard of rumblings about Cheltenham and know of one case definitely linked. But the thing with Cheltenham is that it is every town and city in Ireland rather than any concentration, there was huge awareness of the risks afterwards plus when they came back we moved into effective lock down.

                        Stuart Barnes was writing about Cheltenham last week indicated it was far less packed this year, there was far less of a party atmosphere and the restaurants etc were not as busy as normal. So while the festival went ahead people were taking heed of it.

                        Comment


                          Cheltenham was ground zero for Tralee. A group came back mid-way through the festival and spent the rest of the week watching it in pub. It spread from there.
                          When things go wrong, blame McGahan

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by B.A. View Post
                            Cheltenham was ground zero for Tralee. A group came back mid-way through the festival and spent the rest of the week watching it in pub. It spread from there.
                            same with the high levels in Tipp and Kildare
                            "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                            Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                            Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                              I have heard of rumblings about Cheltenham and know of one case definitely linked. But the thing with Cheltenham is that it is every town and city in Ireland rather than any concentration, there was huge awareness of the risks afterwards plus when they came back we moved into effective lock down.

                              Stuart Barnes was writing about Cheltenham last week indicated it was far less packed this year, there was far less of a party atmosphere and the restaurants etc were not as busy as normal. So while the festival went ahead people were taking heed of it.
                              But the article explicitly says:

                              Dr Cillian De Gascun, chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) Expert Advisory Group, said there is currently no "specific evidence" that Covid-19 was "particularly associated" with people who travelled to and from these events.
                              My auld fella reckons a number of case in Abbeyfeale were linked to Cheltenham, but again that's at odds with the above.

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                              Comment


                                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                                But the article explicitly says:



                                My auld fella reckons a number of case in Abbeyfeale were linked to Cheltenham, but again that's at odds with the above.
                                Well NPHET did not advise against travelling to Cheltenham or isolating those who returned so perhaps that would explain. That would be cynical and I am not cynical.

                                to be honest I don’t know.

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