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    Originally posted by MunsterTel View Post
    Hi Folks, I never put this up here as i wasn't sure how useful it would be and i'm sure i couldn't articulate it correctly. But at this point, i've read so many views, you can use this info to support your argument or not, there's probably some good stuff here,

    Approx Mid March before Covid became an issue in the UK.

    22 Feb, our ski trip to Ischgl Austria
    28 Feb, massive night in the Kitzloch, Ischgl. Google the place, first massive outbreak outside of Northern Italy, Brought into staff area/kitchen to leave gear safe to be able to enjoy night, Our host was our instructor all week and also worked there each evening.
    01 March, arrived back in Gatwick. Inns-Gatwick flight.
    01 March, Munich to Iceland flight included lots of travellers from Ischgl, many declared positive on arrival, Icelandic Govt. declares Ischgl a hotspot equal to Wuhan.
    02 March, not well, pinch in throat - No temp - no taste or smell. Aches/pains/fatigue every day.
    07 March, read about the outbreak in Ischgl, contacted instructor. He and every barman had to be tested. 15 found positive. He was asymptomatic. How many others?
    08 March, NHS called, what to do? My symptoms arent fever or shortness of breath yet i know someone who is positive with NO symptoms!! Therefore, there must be everything in between the official symptoms and none are possible!!
    09 March 3 Phonecalls with the NHS.1. Your case is interesting. 2. We would like to test you, let us call you and tell you when/where. 3. We won't test you. Please isolate for 14 days.

    14 days from when?
    From when you last saw that instructor.
    oh ok, so you mean isolate from the 29th of feb, but today is 09th of March??? Yes, please isolate for 4 days from now.

    For those who are interested, that was my experience.


    It's a worrying thought that someone phones in, says "I have recently returned from one of the world's major Covid hotspots, have Covid symptoms and was definitely exposed to people who have since tested positive", is advised to isolate and otherwise appears nowhere in any of the stats, including case count.


    We really haven't a ****ing clue what's happening in much more than half the world.
    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

    Comment


      Doesn't come across as paranoia to me. I'd assume influence is coming from Toryesque insiders. There are of course agendas on all sides. The irony though here is the rush to reopen with almost certain 2nd bigger wave could precipitate a revolution of some form wherein the right will lose.
      Stand up for the Ulcer men

      Comment


        Members of the Irish Cabinet have been asking the question as why, if we're following WHO guidelines and recommendations, is our social distance set to 2m when the WHO recommend 1m. There's to be a meeting between the Cabinet and Dr Holohan during the week. https://www.rte.ie/amp/1140142/

        Comment


          It's quite sobering to think that, with less exposure to international travel, this virus is only starting to make inroads in the developing world, where it will kill far more people.

          And the differing demographics there are changing the stats. In Brazil, 15% of deaths are people under 50. In Mexico, a quarter of the dead are 25 and 49. Indian officials have said nearly half their dead are under 60. Rio De Janeiro state saying that two thirds of hospitalisations are under 49.

          Population density, poverty, lack of resources, the need to keep working are negating the epidemiological benefits of age.

          ​​​​​​https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...641_story.html




          This thing is going to take hold in Central African Republic and Somalia and Bangladesh and Myanmar and then I fear the numbers we've been talking about in the west are going to look like a curtain raiser.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
            It's quite sobering to think that, with less exposure to international travel, this virus is only starting to make inroads in the developing world, where it will kill far more people.

            And the differing demographics there are changing the stats. In Brazil, 15% of deaths are people under 50. In Mexico, a quarter of the dead are 25 and 49. Indian officials have said nearly half their dead are under 60. Rio De Janeiro state saying that two thirds of hospitalisations are under 49.

            Population density, poverty, lack of resources, the need to keep working are negating the epidemiological benefits of age.

            ​​​​​​https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...641_story.html




            This thing is going to take hold in Central African Republic and Somalia and Bangladesh and Myanmar and then I fear the numbers we've been talking about in the west are going to look like a curtain raiser.
            Very valid point- in terms of the differences in age demographic of deaths- many of these countries already have shorter life expectancies, by about a decade compared with Ireland/UK, whether these age groups are biologically older (ie wear and tear, susceptibility to disease etc etc) than in more developed/wealthier countries may also be an interesting reason why the vulnerability of these younger chronological age groups is greater.

            Comment


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              Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
              http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

              Comment


                Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                Very valid point- in terms of the differences in age demographic of deaths- many of these countries already have shorter life expectancies, by about a decade compared with Ireland/UK, whether these age groups are biologically older (ie wear and tear, susceptibility to disease etc etc) than in more developed/wealthier countries may also be an interesting reason why the vulnerability of these younger chronological age groups is greater.
                Also very possible that people who live past 60 in these countries are proportionately healthier than those in wealthier countries. Many people in developed countries over the age of 60 have some form of underlying condition which is being controlled by medication. In poorer countries many of the people with similar conditions will have died leaving a "healthier" cohort to fight Covid

                Comment


                  Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                  Very valid point- in terms of the differences in age demographic of deaths- many of these countries already have shorter life expectancies, by about a decade compared with Ireland/UK, whether these age groups are biologically older (ie wear and tear, susceptibility to disease etc etc) than in more developed/wealthier countries may also be an interesting reason why the vulnerability of these younger chronological age groups is greater.


                  Given they're talking about absolute numbers (deaths and hospitalisations) rather than percentages, I'd imagine part of it is just the population curve. Western countries have a LOT of people in the vulnerable "bulge", while countries in the developing world are disproportionately young. So even if fatality rates are lower in younger age groups, they'll show a lot of volume in the overall stats.


                  But also, as you say, you've got both the "wear and tear", and a higher prevalence of diseases like malaria etc acting as co-morbidities. Plus the growth in obesity, diabetes etc. So you'll have a big bag of largely untreated underlying conditions.


                  I'm sort of seeing it as being young gives you a 30 yard head start, and then the poor health, housing, working conditions etc negate much of that. Then when you multiply in the sheer volume of young people, you get these outcomes.

                  I guess what we'll eventually see (somewhere down the line) is actual data for cases, hospitalisations and deaths cut by age, socio economic, urban vs rural etc etc etc. But that feels a long way off.


                  In the meantime, Brazil appears to be ****ed. They're digging mass graves in Manaus. This will be an extinction event for some indigenous groups.
                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...patients-67540
                    Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
                    http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



                      Given they're talking about absolute numbers (deaths and hospitalisations) rather than percentages, I'd imagine part of it is just the population curve. Western countries have a LOT of people in the vulnerable "bulge", while countries in the developing world are disproportionately young. So even if fatality rates are lower in younger age groups, they'll show a lot of volume in the overall stats.


                      But also, as you say, you've got both the "wear and tear", and a higher prevalence of diseases like malaria etc acting as co-morbidities. Plus the growth in obesity, diabetes etc. So you'll have a big bag of largely untreated underlying conditions.


                      I'm sort of seeing it as being young gives you a 30 yard head start, and then the poor health, housing, working conditions etc negate much of that. Then when you multiply in the sheer volume of young people, you get these outcomes.

                      I guess what we'll eventually see (somewhere down the line) is actual data for cases, hospitalisations and deaths cut by age, socio economic, urban vs rural etc etc etc. But that feels a long way off.


                      In the meantime, Brazil appears to be ****ed. They're digging mass graves in Manaus. This will be an extinction event for some indigenous groups.
                      Amazingly Bolsonaro is even worse than Trump. The recently released video of the Brazilian cabinet meeting where he rants on about firing the police chief, who was investigating Bolsonaro's son for corruption, also contains this:-

                      (As reported by Katy Watson for the BBC)

                      "The video also revealed attitudes within the wider cabinet, like the environment minister suggesting that coronavirus was a good opportunity - with the press looking the other way - to simplify regulations in the Amazon."

                      Comment


                        The one saving grace for sub Saharan counties is that they've had to deal with highly infectious diseases e.g. ebola more than any where in the west. It's a small comfort, I know

                        Re Brazil, reading Bolsonaro's back story is incredible. He was essentially Brazil's Michael Healy Rae - a massive eejit that no one took seriously. A series of events - the rise of populism, campaigning in forgotten parts of the country, and of course the jailing of the left wing president ushered him into power.



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                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                          The one saving grace for sub Saharan counties is that they've had to deal with highly infectious diseases e.g. ebola more than any where in the west. It's a small comfort, I know

                          Re Brazil, reading Bolsonaro's back story is incredible. He was essentially Brazil's Michael Healy Rae - a massive eejit that no one took seriously. A series of events - the rise of populism, campaigning in forgotten parts of the country, and of course the jailing of the left wing president ushered him into power.


                          Interesting parallel, Bolsonaro seems like a caricature of Trump, something you’d hardly think credible.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                            Interesting parallel, Bolsonaro seems like a caricature of Trump, something you’d hardly think credible.
                            It's sort of what you get when you craft your philosophy on what a bloke down the pub told ya.
                            Stand up for the Ulcer men

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

                              It's sort of what you get when you craft your philosophy on what a bloke down the pub told ya.
                              Yes, the one that everyone avoids because he’s such a pri*k.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                                Superdrug are now doing an antibody test. It's sold out at the moment, but should be available again soon. If you really really want to know if you had it (and it's fair to say that looks likely) this might be an option.

                                I know two people who tested positive and they had zero symptoms.
                                Cheers Fitzy, I had ordered one earlier that day. Superdrug were out at that moment so i ordered from someone else. I reckon they will be as good as free on the NHS in a month but given what i outlined above, i'm very curious to know. It might free me up to be a little less restricted if the science proves it's likely you are immune.

                                The two folks you know who tested positive but didn't have symptoms, what prompted them being tested? A big issue over here is you weren't being tested unless you needed to be hospitalised! Even if you had symptoms, you were told to self isolate. As a result they haven't a clue how much of the population this has gone through. Maybe they don't care, herd immunity was always their game...
                                Last edited by MunsterTel; 24th-May-2020, 08:31.
                                The whole world cries out peace, freedom and a few less fat bastards eating all the pie.

                                Comment

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