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    I am enjoying PP's optimism.

    I hope he's right
    Last edited by Jackie Brown; 17th-May-2020, 16:35.
    Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
    http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

    Comment


      Honestly, I dont think I've ever been prouder to be part of this country. Grand Slams, Special Olympics, nothing has given me the boost of belief in our people than the turnaround we are achieving.

      Ireland Abu!


      THE DEPARTMENT OF Health has this evening confirmed a further 10 deaths from Covid-19 along with 64 new cases of the virus in Ireland.

      It brings the total number of deaths in Ireland to 1,543. The total number of confirmed cases in Ireland has now reached 24,112.

      Tomorrow, Phase One of the roadmap to ease the current Covid-19 restrictions in Ireland will commence.


      The number of new cases will be watched closely by public health officials to preempt a surge of new infections, with the possibility that further restrictions could be reimposed.

      Today’s data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) shows that, of the 23,953 cases reported as of midnight on Friday 15 May:
      • 57% are female and 43% are male
      • The median age of confirmed cases is 48 years
      • 3,117 cases (13%) have been hospitalised
      • Of those hospitalised, 389 cases have been admitted to ICU
      • 7,566 cases are associated with healthcare workers
      • Dublin has the highest number of cases at 11,666 (49% of all cases) followed by Kildare with 1,361 cases (6%) and then Cork with 1,352 cases (6%)
      • Of those for whom transmission status is known: community transmission accounts for 60%, close contact accounts for 37%, travel abroad accounts for 3%

      Earlier this week, the HSE announced it aimed to have a 90% end-to-end turnaround time of three days on testing and contact tracing for Covid-19 positive cases by tomorrow.

      HSE CEO Reid also confirmed that more than 270,000 coronavirus tests have been carried out across Ireland and that, by Monday, 15,000 tests per day. would be carried out.
      I am the million man.

      Comment


        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



        It is true. The London Nightingale turned back referrals and cited staff shortages for doing so.

        ​​​​​​https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-away-patients

        Estimates for staffing the Nightingale that I've seen ran to 16,000 people, most in areas that are already in critical shortage in the NHS.


        I'm not sure of the link between that and care homes, but it has run amok in care homes. I can't make any sense of that paragraph. The NHS approach to the care sector has been likened to Genghis Khan catapulting plague corpses over the wall of a city. In the Daily Telegraph.


        You're continuing to claim relative success for one of the two most failed pandemic responses in the developed world.
        How can you possibly tell it has failed, at this stage? If you maintain that we need to maintain lockdown in case of a resurgence in infections you cannot, logically, judge any country’s response to the pandemic to be a failure unless and until we see whether there is a spike in infections, when the lockdown is lifted.
        Last edited by the plastic paddy; 17th-May-2020, 17:19.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Jackie Brown View Post
          I am enjoying PP's optimism.

          I hope he's right
          The Swedes don’t tend to get a lot wrong. Neil Ferguson doesn’t tend to get a lot right. That is grounds for optimism.

          Comment


            Glad I live in Ireland, and not the UK or Sweden....

            Comment


              As a reminder of how "well" Sweden are doing, they have 3,700 people who have died from Covid.

              Norway has 230.



              ​​​​​​
              Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

              Comment


                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                As a reminder of how "well" Sweden are doing, they have 3,700 people who have died from Covid.

                Norway has 230.



                ​​​​​​
                Lets see where the two nations stand this time next year. According to the Ferguson model, on the 1st May the Swedish death rate should have stood at 40,000.
                Last edited by the plastic paddy; 17th-May-2020, 19:35.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Viigand View Post
                  Glad I live in Ireland, and not the UK or Sweden....
                  I think comparing death rates, at this stage, is ridiculous and I have yet to read anything from a scientist that disagrees with that sentiment. That said, if you want to make the comparison, Sweden’s deaths per million are lower than Ireland’s and their economy hasn’t been completely destroyed.
                  Last edited by the plastic paddy; 17th-May-2020, 20:02.

                  Comment


                    I’m talking about the competence of the government response. You seem to be defending the ‘herd immunity’ theory, and prioritising the re-opening economy over public health, much like what the Trump administration is advocating. The Irish government response is a prudent and well managed response to an evolving situation. The health service has not been overwhelmed, thus achieving the primary goal of the governments strategy. A slow opening of economic activity, with a snap back if the infection rate rises, is the correct response.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Viigand View Post
                      I’m talking about the competence of the government response. You seem to be defending the ‘herd immunity’ theory, and prioritising the re-opening economy over public health, much like what the Trump administration is advocating. The Irish government response is a prudent and well managed response to an evolving situation. The health service has not been overwhelmed, thus achieving the primary goal of the governments strategy. A slow opening of economic activity, with a snap back if the infection rate rises, is the correct response.
                      The health service hasn’t been overwhelmed in Sweden. The bars, cafes, schools and shops have remained open. The economy has suffered a minor contraction, relative to every other nation on the planet. And the deaths per million, so far, are less than Ireland. Sure Sweden have got things wrong. The virus has found its way into their care system. It has done the same, sadly, in most countries, including Ireland, but the deaths in care homes in Sweden, which should have been prevented, regardless of a lockdown being enforced, only serve to show how dreadful Ferguson’s models were and how successful Sweden has been in navigating this crisis without incarcerating their citizens. It is truly amazing to see what can happen when a nation doesn’t infantilise its citizens. EDIT and the health service in the UK hasn’t been overwhelmed either. Indeed, the hospitals are empty throughout the country. Unfortunately, in spite of the lockdown the UK hasn’t managed to keep its death rate lower than lock down free Sweden.
                      Last edited by the plastic paddy; 17th-May-2020, 20:55.

                      Comment


                        UK wrong to rule out global coronavirus comparisons, experts say

                        Government ministers are wrong to say that the impact of coronavirus on health in the UK cannot yet be compared with other countries, according to leading academics whose data shows the peak of deaths in England was higher than that in Italy.

                        International comparison charts were shown at the Downing Street daily briefing until England’s death rate from Covid-19 hit a trajectory set to take it above other European nations. Ministers have said comparisons are not accurate because countries collect their data in different ways.

                        At a Downing Street briefing on 5 May, Dominic Raab repeated previous warnings by ministers and experts against making international comparisons, describing it as “speculation” to say the UK had the highest death toll in Europe.

                        “I don’t think we’ll get a real verdict on how well countries have done until the pandemic is over and particularly until we’ve got comprehensive international data on all cause of mortality,” the foreign secretary said.

                        “We now publish data that includes all deaths in all settings and not all countries do that so I’m not sure that the international comparison works unless you reliably know that all countries are measuring in the same way.”

                        But a team from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) say fair and accurate comparisons can be made by looking at the total deaths each week since Covid-19 took off and comparing them with total deaths from the same week in the years before it existed.

                        This total excess mortality expressed as a percentage, they say, gives a true picture of the public health impact. It captures not only the Covid-19 deaths, whether or not they were certified as such, but also the extra deaths caused by cancer, heart attacks, stroke or any other condition that was neglected because of the pandemic.

                        Their data shows Italy’s peak came on 27 March, with just under 15,000 total deaths that week, which was 103% higher than average mortality compared with the same week in previous years. England hit the peak on 10 April, when there were nearly 20,000 deaths in a week, which was 109% higher than previous years.

                        All countries collect total mortality data. Gaming the data is hard, because the total number of deaths cannot be hidden. Michel Coleman, a professor of epidemiology at LSHTM, who has analysed the data with colleagues Veronica Di Carlo,Melissa Matz and Claudia Allemani, said many of the extra deaths remained unaccounted for.

                        “Even if all the persons whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 are counted, a quarter of the excess mortality in England and Wales is not explained,” said Coleman.

                        “This occurs because some deaths caused by coronavirus occur among people who were not tested. Other deaths occur among people with pre-existing cardiac or respiratory conditions that were made worse by coronavirus, and some deaths from unrelated conditions may occur because the health system was overwhelmed. All these deaths form part of the overall public health impact of the epidemic, but they will not be revealed by restricting reports to deaths among people who were tested for Covid-19.

                        “So, in a fast-moving pandemic, the cause of death on the death certificate is not a good way to assess the overall public health impact of the disease.”

                        The team’s data also shows how hard-hit certain areas and cities have been. The epidemic in Italy was disproportionately lethal in Lombardy in the north, where excess mortality hit 300% by 27 March, four times what would be expected. But this hides extremely high excess deaths in three cities: Bergamo (754%), Lodi (489%) and Brescia (344%). In Milan, it reached 143%.

                        Similarly in the US, the total excess mortality hides grim figures in some cities. On 11 April, total excess mortality for 15 states and New York City, where the data from the National Center for Health Statistics was at least 90% complete, was below 10% in the five weeks to 20 March, but it then rose rapidly to 60% in the three weeks to 11 April. The area includes 138 million people, representing 42% of the US population.

                        But excess mortality reached 68% by 11 April in Massachusetts and 209% in New Jersey, more than three times the expected number of deaths. In New York City alone, with 11.8 million people, excess mortality rose steeply to reach 580% by 11 April, almost seven times the expected mortality.

                        Coleman is well versed in international data comparisons. He and his team were responsible for the cancer survival statistics that tracked the UK lagging behind much of Europe and persuaded the government to invest in cancer strategies to improve the NHS’s performance.

                        The importance of excess mortality data rather than registered Covid-19 deaths has become increasingly recognised as the pandemic has unfolded. It was only when the figures for all deaths in care homes were released by the Office for National Statistics that the real impact in England and Wales was understood. But the excess death toll is more than hospitals and care home excess deaths combined, suggesting some people are dying at home who would in previous years have gone to hospital – and possibly recovered.

                        David Spiegelhalter, the Winton professor of the public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, told the independent organisation Full Fact that all-cause mortality was the best measure.

                        “I feel the only unbiased comparison you could make between different countries is by looking at all-cause mortality,” he said. “There are so many questions about the rise we have seen in deaths that have not got Covid on the death certificate, yet we feel are inevitably linked in some way to this epidemic. Those are the figures that I would prefer to look at.”

                        The deputy chief medical officer for England, Jenny Harries, has also suggested all-cause mortality would be “probably the most useful statistic” for comparisons between countries.
                        Tis but a scratch.

                        Comment


                          Also ...

                          Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

                          Up to a fifth of patients with Covid-19 in several hospitals contracted the disease over the course of the pandemic while already being treated there for another illness, NHS bosses have told senior doctors and nurses.

                          Some of the infections were passed on by hospital staff who were unaware they had the virus and were displaying no symptoms, while patients with coronavirus were responsible for the others.

                          The figures represent NHS England’s first estimate of the size of the problem of hospital-acquired Covid-19, which Boris Johnson last week said was causing an “epidemic” of deaths. In a national briefing last month on infection control and Covid-19, NHS England told the medical directors and chief nurses of all acute hospitals in England that it had found that 10%-20% of people in hospital with the disease had got it while they were inpatients.

                          Senior figures at several NHS trusts have confirmed to the Guardian that a senior official at NHS England said in the briefing, held by telephone conference in late April, that the rate of hospital-acquired Covid-19 infections was running at 10% to 20% and that asymptomatic staff had caused some of the cases.

                          Senior doctors and hospital managers say that doctors, nurses and other staff have inadvertently passed on the virus to patients because they did not have adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) or could not get tested for the virus.

                          Doctors say that hospital-acquired Covid-19 is a significant problem and that patients have died after becoming infected that way. One surgeon, who did not want to be named, said: “Multiple patients my department treated who were inpatients pre lockdown got the bug and died. Obviously the timeline supports that they acquired it from staff and other patients.”

                          However NHS sources maintain that the true rate nationally is currently between 5% and 7%. Extensive swab testing at the trusts and analysis of how long patients had been in hospital revealed that between 10% and 20% had become infected during their stay. But the headline figure passed on in the national briefing was skewed because one trust was known to have poor infection control procedures in place.

                          NHS chiefs remain concerned about the extent of a problem doctors call nosocomial infection. More recent research among staff in the hospitals run by a leading NHS trust in the north of England found that 7% had coronavirus but had no symptoms, and thus posed a risk to patients. Two weeks ago, hospitals began testing all new admissions upon their arrival. While it is also easier now for staff to get swabbed than earlier in the pandemic, problems of access remain.

                          Johnson last week acknowledged that people had died after contracting Covid-19 in hospital and described the problem as an epidemic. In a parliamentary debate Laurence Robertson, the Conservative MP for Tewkesbury, told the prime minister that “just a few days ago my father Jim died of coronavirus in hospital. He did not catch the virus in the community; he caught it in the hospital when he went in for another illness.” In a little-noticed reply Johnson referred to the need to tackle “these twin epidemics” of both care home residents and hospital patients dying after picking up the infection while being looked after.

                          The Guardian reported on 24 March that Marita Edwards had become the first person to die in the UK during the pandemic after contracting coronavirus in hospital. The otherwise-fit 80-year-old went into the Royal Gwent hospital in Newport on 28 February for a routine gallbladder operation but tested positive for Covid-19 on 19 March and died the next day.

                          A week earlier consultant cardiologist Dr Mark Gallagher told the Guardian about a 79-year-old woman who was admitted to his hospital in London for a non-urgent operation. She was diagnosed with Covid-19, which “she almost certainly acquired on our wards” and was put on a ventilator, but died. About 50 doctors and nurses had treated her, but none had been tested to see if they had the virus, he said.

                          On 3 March NHS England acknowledged that hospital-acquired Covid-19 was a possibility when it announced that thousands of patients in intensive care would be tested for Covid-19 to try and identify anyone who had caught it there after cases emerged in Europe.

                          Dr Paul Donaldson, the general secretary of the Hospital Consultants and Specialists Association, a doctors’ trade union, said: “It seems to be a significant number of anecdotal cases that are reported to us that are nosocomial infection of Covid-19 by many doctors throughout the country. They comment that they are aware of cases in their hospitals.”

                          Donaldson, who is a microbiologist, added: “They are concerned that a greater number of patients are becoming infected than they would like. They and we at the HCSA worry that the inadequacy of PPE might be contributing to this increase in nosocomial infections.”

                          Dr Alison Pittard, the dean of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine, which represents intensive care specialist staff, said: “I’m very concerned that the incidence of [hospital-acquired] infection has gone up during this pandemic. It’s conceivable that asymptomatic staff may unintentionally infect some patients and that could be a mode of transmisison and help explain the rise in intra-hospital infection.”

                          Pittard said there had been cases of patients being who had been kept alive on a ventilator because of Covid-19 who were then diagnosed with a secondary infection called ventilator-associated pneumonia that they had acquired during their stay.

                          It is understood that the NHS has no reliable figures for the extent of hospital-acquired Covid-19 but would be issuing guidance to hospitals to help them prevent such spread.

                          An NHS spokesperson said: “This new global health pandemic meant the NHS has faced an unprecedented health challenge, but hospitals have very established and highly effective mechanisms for infection prevention and control, that clinicians are well trained in to care for desperately unwell patients.

                          “PHE is conducting a survey to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic healthcare workers that have detectable SARSars-CoVv-2 virus in their nose and throat to inform development of relevant guidance.”

                          A senior consultant said hospital-acquired Covid-19 could mean that it might not be safe for the growing number of patients who would be coming into hospital for a planned operation, as the NHS attempts to return to normal, pre-pandemic functioning.

                          They said: “We know from the significant fall in hospital A&E attendances and admissions, many for serious medical conditions, that many people are worried about coming into hospital and catching the virus.

                          “This shows they are right to be worried; there is real risk. It mirrors the known risk for NHS frontline staff. NHS leadership now have early data to prove this hypothesis.”

                          Tis but a scratch.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                            The health service hasn’t been overwhelmed in Sweden. The bars, cafes, schools and shops have remained open. The economy has suffered a minor contraction, relative to every other nation on the planet. And the deaths per million, so far, are less than Ireland. Sure Sweden have got things wrong. The virus has found its way into their care system. It has done the same, sadly, in most countries, including Ireland, but the deaths in care homes in Sweden, which should have been prevented, regardless of a lockdown being enforced, only serve to show how dreadful Ferguson’s models were and how successful Sweden has been in navigating this crisis without incarcerating their citizens. It is truly amazing to see what can happen when a nation doesn’t infantilise its citizens. EDIT and the health service in the UK hasn’t been overwhelmed either. Indeed, the hospitals are empty throughout the country. Unfortunately, in spite of the lockdown the UK hasn’t managed to keep its death rate lower than lock down free Sweden.
                            If we had a similar level of infection to Sweden, our ICU capacity would have had insufficient beds to cope. Persons would have had to be triaged and people that required intensive care treatment would have had to be turned away. The Irish government came up with the best solution for Ireland, and to date, the objectives of the strategy have been met.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                              How can you possibly tell it has failed, at this stage? If you maintain that we need to maintain lockdown in case of a resurgence in infections you cannot, logically, judge any country’s response to the pandemic to be a failure unless and until we see whether there is a spike in infections, when the lockdown is lifted.

                              Because there's more than 60,000 people dead, PP.

                              England's excess death peak was the highest of the 24 European countries.

                              The highest excess death rate for Over 65s.

                              It's peak excess death rate from 15-64 was four times worse than France and Belgium, and five times worse than Italy.

                              https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/6-Ma...D-pandemic.pdf

                              Late to lock down, late to ramp up what remains inadequate testing, a failure to manage and distribute PPE effectively.


                              It's going to take some spike in Germany to close that gap.



                              The UK needs to maintain lock down until it doesn't have hundreds of people dying every day. The daily deaths now are higher than they were when the Govt closed schools, while the Govt sits in news studios saying it's safe to go back.



                              The age old passion for the English ruling class to send the working class "over the top" doesn't seem to have abated.
                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by mr chips View Post
                                UK wrong to rule out global coronavirus comparisons, experts say

                                Government ministers are wrong to say that the impact of coronavirus on health in the UK cannot yet be compared with other countries, according to leading academics whose data shows the peak of deaths in England was higher than that in Italy.

                                International comparison charts were shown at the Downing Street daily briefing until England’s death rate from Covid-19 hit a trajectory set to take it above other European nations. Ministers have said comparisons are not accurate because countries collect their data in different ways.

                                At a Downing Street briefing on 5 May, Dominic Raab repeated previous warnings by ministers and experts against making international comparisons, describing it as “speculation” to say the UK had the highest death toll in Europe.

                                “I don’t think we’ll get a real verdict on how well countries have done until the pandemic is over and particularly until we’ve got comprehensive international data on all cause of mortality,” the foreign secretary said.

                                “We now publish data that includes all deaths in all settings and not all countries do that so I’m not sure that the international comparison works unless you reliably know that all countries are measuring in the same way.”

                                But a team from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) say fair and accurate comparisons can be made by looking at the total deaths each week since Covid-19 took off and comparing them with total deaths from the same week in the years before it existed.

                                This total excess mortality expressed as a percentage, they say, gives a true picture of the public health impact. It captures not only the Covid-19 deaths, whether or not they were certified as such, but also the extra deaths caused by cancer, heart attacks, stroke or any other condition that was neglected because of the pandemic.

                                Their data shows Italy’s peak came on 27 March, with just under 15,000 total deaths that week, which was 103% higher than average mortality compared with the same week in previous years. England hit the peak on 10 April, when there were nearly 20,000 deaths in a week, which was 109% higher than previous years.

                                All countries collect total mortality data. Gaming the data is hard, because the total number of deaths cannot be hidden. Michel Coleman, a professor of epidemiology at LSHTM, who has analysed the data with colleagues Veronica Di Carlo,Melissa Matz and Claudia Allemani, said many of the extra deaths remained unaccounted for.

                                “Even if all the persons whose death certificate mentioned Covid-19 are counted, a quarter of the excess mortality in England and Wales is not explained,” said Coleman.

                                “This occurs because some deaths caused by coronavirus occur among people who were not tested. Other deaths occur among people with pre-existing cardiac or respiratory conditions that were made worse by coronavirus, and some deaths from unrelated conditions may occur because the health system was overwhelmed. All these deaths form part of the overall public health impact of the epidemic, but they will not be revealed by restricting reports to deaths among people who were tested for Covid-19.

                                “So, in a fast-moving pandemic, the cause of death on the death certificate is not a good way to assess the overall public health impact of the disease.”

                                The team’s data also shows how hard-hit certain areas and cities have been. The epidemic in Italy was disproportionately lethal in Lombardy in the north, where excess mortality hit 300% by 27 March, four times what would be expected. But this hides extremely high excess deaths in three cities: Bergamo (754%), Lodi (489%) and Brescia (344%). In Milan, it reached 143%.

                                Similarly in the US, the total excess mortality hides grim figures in some cities. On 11 April, total excess mortality for 15 states and New York City, where the data from the National Center for Health Statistics was at least 90% complete, was below 10% in the five weeks to 20 March, but it then rose rapidly to 60% in the three weeks to 11 April. The area includes 138 million people, representing 42% of the US population.

                                But excess mortality reached 68% by 11 April in Massachusetts and 209% in New Jersey, more than three times the expected number of deaths. In New York City alone, with 11.8 million people, excess mortality rose steeply to reach 580% by 11 April, almost seven times the expected mortality.

                                Coleman is well versed in international data comparisons. He and his team were responsible for the cancer survival statistics that tracked the UK lagging behind much of Europe and persuaded the government to invest in cancer strategies to improve the NHS’s performance.

                                The importance of excess mortality data rather than registered Covid-19 deaths has become increasingly recognised as the pandemic has unfolded. It was only when the figures for all deaths in care homes were released by the Office for National Statistics that the real impact in England and Wales was understood. But the excess death toll is more than hospitals and care home excess deaths combined, suggesting some people are dying at home who would in previous years have gone to hospital – and possibly recovered.

                                David Spiegelhalter, the Winton professor of the public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, told the independent organisation Full Fact that all-cause mortality was the best measure.

                                “I feel the only unbiased comparison you could make between different countries is by looking at all-cause mortality,” he said. “There are so many questions about the rise we have seen in deaths that have not got Covid on the death certificate, yet we feel are inevitably linked in some way to this epidemic. Those are the figures that I would prefer to look at.”

                                The deputy chief medical officer for England, Jenny Harries, has also suggested all-cause mortality would be “probably the most useful statistic” for comparisons between countries.
                                I don’t think anyone sensible is ruling out comparison with other countries based on all cause mortality- just comparisons based on different combinations of hospital / other location deaths (which is inconsistent even within countries). Once again however, simple counts won’t work, these will need to be corrected for population, density, demographics (age structure), as far as I know this level of data is not yet available for all cause mortality.

                                Comment

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