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    Scotland Women v France off according to the 42

    A Scottish player has Corona.

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      Originally posted by munstershane View Post
      Harry estimates 65 million deaths worldwide by the end of this outbreak
      I doubt he's got 65 million shot gun cartridges. Amazon only allow 10 per order.
      Stand up for the Ulcer men

      Comment


        Well worth a watch https://youtu.be/eGRl5ekAqo0
        Only fools and drunks argue over everything. If you don’t have a hangover the next day you’re not the drunk...

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          Think it's noteworthy that that of the 705 cases on the cruise ship off Japan, there were 6 deaths, meaning a death rate below 1%. Thats a much better barometer of the effects of this than the 3.5% rate being thrown around by some based on the official world wide cases. The infection rate was about 4 in 10, compounded no doubt by the close quarters nature of things like cruise ships or hotels, etc.

          Considering the typical demographic make up of your average cruise ship holiday (heavily weighted to towards those over 50), and it's reasonable to suggest the actual death rate would be quite a bit lower again, seeing as the thing appears to have no affect on children and minimal on those in their 20's-40's.

          As an aside - a cruise ship holiday is my idea of hell on earth even without viral infectious outbreaks.

          "There are probably more annoying things than being hectored about African development by a wealthy Irish rock star in a cowboy hat, but I can't think of one at the moment"

          Paul Theroux

          Comment


            Originally posted by busby View Post
            Think it's noteworthy that that of the 705 cases on the cruise ship off Japan, there were 6 deaths, meaning a death rate below 1%. Thats a much better barometer of the effects of this than the 3.5% rate being thrown around by some based on the official world wide cases. The infection rate was about 4 in 10, compounded no doubt by the close quarters nature of things like cruise ships or hotels, etc.

            Considering the typical demographic make up of your average cruise ship holiday (heavily weighted to towards those over 50), and it's reasonable to suggest the actual death rate would be quite a bit lower again, seeing as the thing appears to have no affect on children and minimal on those in their 20's-40's.

            As an aside - a cruise ship holiday is my idea of hell on earth even without viral infectious outbreaks.
            You should apply to President Trump for a role in his administration.

            Comment


              Originally posted by busby View Post
              Think it's noteworthy that that of the 705 cases on the cruise ship off Japan, there were 6 deaths, meaning a death rate below 1%. Thats a much better barometer of the effects of this than the 3.5% rate being thrown around by some based on the official world wide cases. The infection rate was about 4 in 10, compounded no doubt by the close quarters nature of things like cruise ships or hotels, etc.

              Considering the typical demographic make up of your average cruise ship holiday (heavily weighted to towards those over 50), and it's reasonable to suggest the actual death rate would be quite a bit lower again, seeing as the thing appears to have no affect on children and minimal on those in their 20's-40's.

              As an aside - a cruise ship holiday is my idea of hell on earth even without viral infectious outbreaks.
              The Sunday Times is reporting an "best estimate" figure of 100,000 UK deaths. Extrapolating that for Ireland is 6,000 to 8,000 deaths.

              These are extraordinary numbers.
              Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

              Comment


                The scariest thing IMHO is that the number of cases is doubling (outside China) every 5 days approximately. Roughly 14-20% of those will need hospitalisation, especially the older cohort. You can’t leave these patients on trolleys.

                if countries outside China don’t take drastic measures there will be over a million patients outside China by early April. This is just extrapolation of an exponential fit, from current ~10,000 cases, and is almost absurdly fast. Three log is a long way to extrapolate, but clearly 100,000 cases is likely to come quickly. The current rapid rate could reflect rapid discovery of many cases in progress, but there are also further cases not captured that might cancel that out to some extent.. This curve needs to be pushed downwards with social distancing and hygiene improvements.

                I don't think we are ready for that in the West the way China did it.
                "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                Comment


                  Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                  The Sunday Times is reporting an "best estimate" figure of 100,000 UK deaths. Extrapolating that for Ireland is 6,000 to 8,000 deaths.

                  These are extraordinary numbers.
                  And the six nations and Cheltenham carry on regardless. It is bonkers.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by glorob View Post

                    You should apply to President Trump for a role in his administration.
                    Not sure what you're implying by that, but I wasn't meaning that as "it's all grand and stop worrying about it" post. But there's a balance between that and reacting as if it's the black plague.
                    "There are probably more annoying things than being hectored about African development by a wealthy Irish rock star in a cowboy hat, but I can't think of one at the moment"

                    Paul Theroux

                    Comment


                      RTÉ reports:

                      "The new measures say people should not enter or leave Lombardy, Italy's richest region, as well as 14 provinces in four other regions, including the cities of Venice, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia and Rimini.

                      "There will be no movement in or out of these areas, or within them, unless for proven, work-related reasons, emergencies or health reasons," Mr Conte told a news conference in the middle of the night after hours of confusion over his plans."

                      But

                      " it was not immediately clear how fiercely the order would be policed and at first light this morning, flights appeared to be operating normally out of Milan's two airports and Venice airport, while rail operators were still selling train tickets."

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Piquet View Post
                        RTÉ reports:

                        "The new measures say people should not enter or leave Lombardy, Italy's richest region, as well as 14 provinces in four other regions, including the cities of Venice, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia and Rimini.

                        "There will be no movement in or out of these areas, or within them, unless for proven, work-related reasons, emergencies or health reasons," Mr Conte told a news conference in the middle of the night after hours of confusion over his plans."

                        But

                        " it was not immediately clear how fiercely the order would be policed and at first light this morning, flights appeared to be operating normally out of Milan's two airports and Venice airport, while rail operators were still selling train tickets."
                        That’s like having your panettone and eating it.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                          The Sunday Times is reporting an "best estimate" figure of 100,000 UK deaths. Extrapolating that for Ireland is 6,000 to 8,000 deaths.

                          These are extraordinary numbers.
                          That's not what the Sunday times reported though. They described a central estimate of deaths based on worst case infection rate. Ireland's population density means the spread will be less aggressive than the UK to .
                          "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                            That's not what the Sunday times reported though. They described a central estimate of deaths based on worst case infection rate. Ireland's population density means the spread will be less aggressive than the UK to .
                            It isn't based on worse case. It's "most likely to happen". Worst case is 500,000 ..

                            Officials in Whitehall last week began describing a 100,000 figure as the “central estimate” of the potential death toll, according to a source involved in the preparations, rather than the previously publicised worst case scenario of 500,000 deaths if 80% of the population were infected.....

                            The total number has not been circulated to town hall leaders to prevent panic. But a second official said the “ballpark” figure for expected deaths across all councils was “in the region of 100,000”. That includes those likely to die from seasonal flu, which averaged 17,000 over the past five years.

                            One official who has been involved in the planning said: “The central estimate of deaths is about 100,000. Everyone has been focusing on the worst case but this is what the experts actually expect to happen. Some of those people would have died of other flus.”
                            I still think it's too early to make such assumptions, as we have no idea of how this will play out.

                            Accept that it's hard to extrapolate for Ireland, but places like Dublin would be very hard hit imho.
                            Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                            Comment


                              My local now has hand sanitizer on the bar. Maybe be this is serious....
                              Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by busby View Post

                                Not sure what you're implying by that, but I wasn't meaning that as "it's all grand and stop worrying about it" post. But there's a balance between that and reacting as if it's the black plague.
                                With the possible exception of Climate Change this is probably the biggest challenge we have faced since the Second World War.

                                Events in China and other countries have shown this can get very bad, very quickly. China has also shown this can be curtailed with very aggressive and unpalatable preventative measures.

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