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Irish General Election 2020: It's Show Time!

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    Irish General Election 2020: It's Show Time!

    Leo is off to the Áras this afternoon and we'll have a real choice on February 8th: vote or go to the Ireland-Wales match at the Aviva. (I'll be going to that*).

    Ivan Yates thinks: "FF could break 60 seats, FG will struggle to get much past 40 seats, the Greens will go from 3 to 8, SF will drop to 17..." (his Twitter feed yesterday).

    It's hard to see Leo coming back as Taoiseach, but the alternative of Micheál Martin does not inspire.

    It should be a different election to the last one though in February 2016 when FG thought they only had to ask for a new mandate, FF were still behind the ramparts, Lab were Lab, Paul Murphy was everywhere and Vincent Browne seemed to have the mood of the nation.

    I do see a Green resurgence though and that will interesting.


    * EDIT: I will be voting as early as possible on the Saturday morning in Limerick (lest it be thought I'm skipping voting, which I'm not).
    Last edited by blackwarrior; 14-January-2020, 13:45.
    "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
    Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

    #2
    It's amazing that two thirds of the electorate will troop out and vote FF or FG.
    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

    Comment


      #3
      Maria Bailey's attempted fraud, and the fiasco about the RIC commemoration will have more bearing on the result than anything else.

      FG are awful. Leo is horribly out of touch with the electorate. FF are like a political Chernobyl - they are poison and should be unelectable. The independents are glorified Local Councillors just on a much sweeter deal. Labour are a sad comedy. SF are settled gunmen.

      The country is horribly broke, but still finds big bobs for the dogtrack and similar.

      There is no accountability for white collar crime, and insurance fraud is a big industry. Lawyers are as bent as a €4 note.

      The voters are in general pretty stupid.
      Yorn desh born, der ritt de gitt der gue,
      Orn desh, dee born desh, de umn bork! bork! bork!

      Comment


        #4
        Amazing how quickly Varadkar has squandered his Brexit capital. Hopefully the RIC fiasco puts Charlie Flanagan in trouble but that's difficult to see.

        Can't see a majority for any party, hopefully the Greens make gains. Would also like to see the SocDems make waves but that's harder to see.

        As far as issues go I'd like to see a bigger focus on progressive solutions to homelessness, health reform and making Dublin more affordable for young people. Other than that just leave the important stuff to Europe please.

        I remain positive that we are not going to suffer from the growth of the hard right across the Western world.
        "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Miguel Sanchez View Post
          Maria Bailey's attempted fraud, and the fiasco about the RIC commemoration will have more bearing on the result than anything else.

          FG are awful. Leo is horribly out of touch with the electorate. FF are like a political Chernobyl - they are poison and should be unelectable. The independents are glorified Local Councillors just on a much sweeter deal. Labour are a sad comedy. SF are settled gunmen.

          The country is horribly broke, but still finds big bobs for the dogtrack and similar.

          There is no accountability for white collar crime, and insurance fraud is a big industry. Lawyers are as bent as a €4 note.

          The voters are in general pretty stupid.
          Voters can only vote for whats in front of them. Who do you suggest out of all those we back?
          "Some people don't know their easy lives... I wouldn't be so ungrateful" - Fiacre Ryan - #AutismAndMe

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
            It's amazing that two thirds of the electorate will troop out and vote FF or FG.
            and at least 20% for SF, another 10% for whatever local gobdaw that's agin the immigrants or them in Dublin.
            Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

            Comment


              #7
              No real options for a right wing voter, all the parties are either hard left, left or centre left.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Viigand View Post
                No real options for a right wing voter, all the parties are either hard left, left or centre left.
                I realise that this is biting, but that's like saying we have no hard left options here because we don't have Mao running. There may be some globally who are further to the right, but in my opinion the current incarnation of FG are as hard right as there has been on the island in the last 35 years and I'm including the PD's in there.
                Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                  It's amazing that two thirds of the electorate will troop out and vote FF or FG.
                  I think it was less than 55% last time.
                  Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by scotscor View Post

                    I think it was less than 55% last time.
                    When it comes to first preference votes FG got 25.5% and FF got 24.3%, so 49.8% between them. But they ended up with 59% of the seats between them.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Viigand View Post
                      No real options for a right wing voter, all the parties are either hard left, left or centre left.
                      There's always the independents.. https://www.thejournal.ie/verona-mur...64909-Jan2020/

                      'I'm not a racist..' straight out of Fr Ted..

                      Right-wing here is mixed up with hard left.. whatever is populist
                      Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

                      Comment


                        #12
                        January 07, 2020

                        By Michael Taft A Three-Way Contest

                        While elections can throw up surprises there is one thing we can be fairly certain of: either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail will lead the next government. Will they combine, repeating the confidence and supply experience (with roles potentially reversed) or enter into an ideologically-compatible grand coalition? Or will they win the support of other, smaller parties and rule separate from each other? Whatever the final outcome, we know the answer because the only question is – will Fianna Fail or Fine Gael lead the next government. It’s a two-way race.
                        In this construction, progressive parties are confined to a supporting role.
                        However, one can construct the electoral landscape in a different way, at least at a categorical level. There are four broad progressive currents:
                        • Nationalist Left: Sinn Fein
                        • Social Democratic: Labour and Social Democrats
                        • Radical: People before Profit, Solidarity, Workers Party, Rise
                        • Greens
                        In addition, there are independents loosely associated within Independents4Change (I4C) as well as other unaffiliated independents.
                        Together, these four currents constitute a ‘progressive bloc’ – parties that have more in common with each other than they do with either the conservative parties; on a policy level, at least. If this is the case, then we can see Irish politics as – or evolving into – a three-way contest.
                        Let’s take the European and local elections as an example. The results were not considered good for progressives. Sinn Fein and the radical parties suffered considerable losses, Labour treaded low-tide water while the Social Democrats failed to make significant inroads. Only the Greens managed to make significant gains. Yet, despite this, progressives as a bloc competed with the two larger political blocs.
                        3-Bloc 1
                        As a bloc, the votes for progressive parties were approximately equivalent to what Fine Gael or Fianna Fail received. It should be noted that the above does not include ‘independents’; in particular, the I4C candidates. Therefore, support for progressive candidates in the European election is understated.
                        An Emerging Progressive Bloc
                        It would be convenient if the public debate understood that the next election was a three-way competition between these competing blocs. Unfortunately, this is a categorical construction, not a political one. The different elements that make up the progressive bloc are not cohesive. They do not have a common purpose or recognise a common destiny with each other. Progressives are not conscious of constituting a bloc.
                        The progressive bloc may exist only as a potential but this potential has some concrete validity.
                        First, there is considerable agreement on policies and principles between the different parties that make up the progressive spectrum – housing, labour rights, public services, low-pay and poverty. They are closer to each other than they are to either conservative party. This cohesiveness is underlined by voting patterns in the current Dail where progressives tend to support each other.
                        Secondly, supporters of progressive parties self-identify as politically ‘left’. In the 2016 RTE exit poll, voters were asked to self-identify as either ‘Left’ or ‘Right’ on a scale from 0 (the most left-wing) to 10 (the most right-wing). Anything below 5.0 can be considered progressive, or left-of-centre.
                        3-Bloc 2
                        AAA/PbP voters identified themselves as the most ‘left-wing’, followed by Sinn Fein. The Greens, Labour and the Social Democrats were grouped closely together as left-of-centre.
                        Third, transfer patterns in the recent European election show supporters of progressive parties transferring in far greater numbers to other progressive parties than to conservative parties.
                        3-Bloc 3
                        Over a third of voters for progressive parties transferred to candidates from other progressive parties. This compares to eight and six percent for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail respectively. Among voters, anyway, a progressive consciousness is starting to emerge. In this tabulation, the two I4C candidates were included as they feature prominently in their respective constituencies.
                        Fourth, there is a long-term decline in support for the Fianna Fail and Fine Gael blocs and an increase in support for the combined progressive parties.
                        3-Bloc 4
                        In the 1980s Ireland was described as having a two-and-a-half party system: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour with the latter (even in combination with the Workers’ Party) trailing the larger parties by a substantial margin. 35 years later, support for progressive parties has nearly trebled, with all three blocs now receiving nearly equal support.
                        Finally, many party members and activists are already cooperating in a range of civil society initiatives: housing campaigns, anti-racism campaigns, etc.
                        Policy compatibility, voter identification, transfer patterns, historical trends and activist cooperation: the tragedy for progressives is that they collectively have not connected these dots (even though voters may have started to), and are not yet capable of constituting an alternative to the conservative blocs.
                        * * *
                        Some may dispute the categorisation of progressive parties. How can some of the parties who have been in coalition with conservative parties, or who are open to coalition with them, be considered ‘progressive’? There are legitimate concerns that parties will tack one way prior to an election and tack a completely different way when the results are in. However, this is not something confined to progressive parties (Fianna Fail didn’t campaign in the last election on the basis of supporting a Fine Gael minority government).
                        What is important is not to let the past dictate or circumscribe our ability to create new and better alliances, or pursue strategies that can achieve concrete gains for progressive parties and their supporters. Some have suggested that the fundamental starting point of a progressive alliance is the rejection of any post-election accommodation with either of the conservative parties. However, the logical conclusion of this position is to radically shrink the progressive bloc to almost nothing; in effect, to eliminate it altogether.
                        Progressive parties in other countries have refused to allow past actions to limit future relationships. If Podemos had rejected any contact with the PSOE (who implemented painful austerity measures), then Spain would not be on the verge of a progressive government. If the Left Bloc and Communists / Greens had, similarly, rejected the Socialists (who also implemented austerity), then Portugal would not have benefitted from one of the most progressive governments in Europe.
                        With voters already moving over the long term to a more progressive position, reinforcing that in transfer patterns, it is imperative that progressive parties vindicate the emerging preferences of their support base. In the next post I will propose a way of doing that as we enter into election 2020.


                        Posted at 10:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)



                        Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2021.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Miguel Sanchez View Post
                          Maria Bailey's attempted fraud, and the fiasco about the RIC commemoration will have more bearing on the result than anything else.

                          FG are awful. Leo is horribly out of touch with the electorate. FF are like a political Chernobyl - they are poison and should be unelectable. The independents are glorified Local Councillors just on a much sweeter deal. Labour are a sad comedy. SF are settled gunmen.

                          The country is horribly broke, but still finds big bobs for the dogtrack and similar.

                          There is no accountability for white collar crime, and insurance fraud is a big industry. Lawyers are as bent as a €4 note.

                          The voters are in general pretty stupid.
                          Confusionus he say: "It's only yourself you see in the worrild"
                          Stand up for the Ulcer men

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Leo was all I could see on the roads of South Kerry this afternoon. And I must say, he was looking ever so well... with not as much as a slogan in sight.
                            Last edited by ustix; 14-January-2020, 18:31.
                            Gwan Joe!!

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                              It's amazing that two thirds of the electorate will troop out and vote FF or FG.
                              I think it's called falling in...
                              Gwan Joe!!

                              Comment

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