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Irish General Election 2020: It's Show Time!

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    If you allow me to interfere in your political domestic affairs, if I understand what you think, couldn't FF or FG propose a "Kanguru deal" to SF... "Kanguru deal" would be a kind of "Australian deal" that could be proposed by BJ to EU, starting from the idea that there is NO deal between EU and Australia?..
    The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

    Comment


      Originally posted by JN.Allezdax.com View Post
      If you allow me to interfere in your political domestic affairs, if I understand what you think, couldn't FF or FG propose a "Kanguru deal" to SF... "Kanguru deal" would be a kind of "Australian deal" that could be proposed by BJ to EU, starting from the idea that there is NO deal between EU and Australia?..
      SF would be great to negotiate that, well used to Kangaroo courts
      Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

      Comment


        I think everyone needs to have a fig leaf of cover to get a coalition together. Greens / Lab and Soc Dems have similar priorities. They should firstly create an initial alliance. This would have made sense before the election but still does. This protects any of the three of them from being screwed in a small party coalition play. It also gives the three of them greater weight going into negotiate.

        I'd then suggest that they as a threesome, talk to both SF and FF. FF are more likely to go in with SF if there is a balance with the centre left. While SF will be happy that they wont be out lefted when they make difficult decisions (yes you do still have the PBP.

        I'm calling this a 'Baby Grand' Coalition - FF/SF / GR/ Lab/ SD

        Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



        Comment


          Originally posted by scotscor View Post
          I think everyone needs to have a fig leaf of cover to get a coalition together. Greens / Lab and Soc Dems have similar priorities. They should firstly create an initial alliance. This would have made sense before the election but still does. This protects any of the three of them from being screwed in a small party coalition play. It also gives the three of them greater weight going into negotiate.

          I'd then suggest that they as a threesome, talk to both SF and FF. FF are more likely to go in with SF if there is a balance with the centre left. While SF will be happy that they wont be out lefted when they make difficult decisions (yes you do still have the PBP.

          I'm calling this a 'Baby Grand' Coalition - FF/SF / GR/ Lab/ SD
          FF/SF only need one of GP/SD/LAB to have a majority. Whichever of GP/SD/LAB stay out of such a government will get a swing towards them at the next election and will probably also pick up a few FF TDs and councilors who split over going in with SF.

          SD/LAB personalities HATE each other, so right now both Howlin and Shortall are praying to Fredrich Engels that the other one makes the mistake of going into government. The momentum is with the SDs in the battle with Labour, they have a fresher set of TDs and this will benefit their other candidates in the next election. If I were the SDs campaign manager I'd be having Holly Cairns on every TV programme going for the next 6 months; smart, down to earth and very easy on the eye. Politicians like that don't come around very often. She speaks to massive demographic in rural Ireland that the centre left have always struggled to attract.

          Comment


            The labour old guard bar Howlin are gone. Its a much younger parliamentary party now - Nash, Kelly, Sherlock, O'Riordan and Smith are 20 - 30 years younger than those who have lost their seats or retired. While no doubt there is animosity between Shortall and Howlin, there would be less in the wider parties.
            Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



            Comment


              Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post


              SD/LAB personalities HATE each other, so right now both Howlin and Shortall are praying to Fredrich Engels that the other one makes the mistake of going into government.
              Labour (at least any remaining Democratic Left) would hate SF almost as much - remember DL came out of Official Sinn Fein back in the day - that said I doubt many remain.....

              "I've got lots of potatos that need peeling and manure that needs shovelling" -M. Burns :_skull__rvmp_by_bad

              Comment


                Originally posted by SkullinPints View Post

                Labour (at least any remaining Democratic Left) would hate SF almost as much - remember DL came out of Official Sinn Fein back in the day - that said I doubt many remain.....
                PB4P or whatever they're called now have made a career of disparaging Labour, there's no way Labour could ever join up with them in a 'Left' alliance. memories of what was said during water charges protests and social media commentaries
                Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

                Comment


                  Originally posted by scotscor View Post
                  The labour old guard bar Howlin are gone. Its a much younger parliamentary party now - Nash, Kelly, Sherlock, O'Riordan and Smith are 20 - 30 years younger than those who have lost their seats or retired. While no doubt there is animosity between Shortall and Howlin, there would be less in the wider parties.
                  SD's have quite a young looking bunch now. You can see Holly Cairns and Cian O'Callaghan taking the reigns soon. It would make sense for themselves and Labour to kiss and make up. My thoughts now are this could be the end of one of FFG. The newer and younger parties have don't carry any of the old baggage and cronyism stuff. This seems like the ideal opportunity for them to really make big dents in the FFG vote.
                  He's a guy who gets up at six o'clock in the morning regardless of what time it is.

                  Comment


                    There IS a path to power for SF and Mary Lou as Taoiseach.
                    FF spokespeople all over the radio now saying Never Never Never to Sinn Fein and Not Bloody Likely to FG. Meanwhile FG are in a sulk and have taken their ball home.

                    So FF and FG won't play ball either with each other or with Sinn Fein.

                    But the left parties, together with the Greens and Independents for Change, could command 69 votes in the Dail, 11 short of a 1 seat majority. There's probably another 5 Labour or SF 'gene pool' independents.

                    If that block could produce a programme for government for say 3 or 4 years, that would address tax, climate, housing, health, rural support, and childcare, and come to the Dail with it, proposing Mary Lou for Taoiseach, it would then be up to FF & FG to block it and either go into coalition themselves or precipitate another election.

                    An election in such circumstances would be a three way fight for a Left government with a common - and published - programme of government, or more of the same with FF\FG unwilling to co-operate with each other and so unable to offer an alternative government.

                    Turnout this election was the second lowest ever. My guess is that with an increased number of candidate and an alternative government on offer, that SF could win 20 more seats without destroying other left parties.

                    FF could be destroyed by coalition with FG and they know it. But then, SF has eaten a lot of their vote already so they should be wary of that too.

                    Equally they could be destroyed if they are seen to be lining up with FG to block immediate action on housing and healthcare.

                    Sinn Fein could present a modofied programme designed to attract left votes in the Dail and dare FF to vote it down in favour of a deal with FG, the only other govt on offer, or an election where SF double their candidates.
                    Last edited by rathbaner; 11th-February-2020, 16:36.
                    Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by rathbaner View Post

                      If that block could produce a programme for government for say 3 or 4 years, that would address tax, climate, housing, health, rural support, and childcare, and come to the Dail with it, proposing Mary Lou for Taoiseach, it would then be up to FF & FG to block it and either go into coalition themselves or precipitate another election.
                      4 years to address tax, climate, housing, health, rural support, and childcare when you have a minority government being lead by some, at best, semi-capable people?

                      Not that I disagree with what you're saying but I think a lot of people might end up somewhat disappointed by what a party like Sinn Fein could achieve. That's when the real trouble starts.

                      Rather than being some sort of "left wing revolution" that it is being portrayed in international media, this looks more to me like the collapse of genuine left wing politics in Ireland. Populism is not progressivism.
                      "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                      Comment


                        Sinn Fein's results and subsequent behaviour already making waves. (Owen Polley is a conservative commentator as far as I know). He has a point.


                        https://capx.co/sinn-feins-success-h...35ac-241842337
                        "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                        Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by scotscor View Post
                          The labour old guard bar Howlin are gone. Its a much younger parliamentary party now - Nash, Kelly, Sherlock, O'Riordan and Smith are 20 - 30 years younger than those who have lost their seats or retired. While no doubt there is animosity between Shortall and Howlin, there would be less in the wider parties.
                          Liebour are dead in the water about to suffer the same fate as the PD's - with any luck.
                          Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by blackwarrior View Post
                            Sinn Fein's results and subsequent behaviour already making waves. (Owen Polley is a conservative commentator as far as I know). He has a point.


                            https://capx.co/sinn-feins-success-h...35ac-241842337
                            Not the first party to lay down their weapons and get into politics, and not even the first in Ireland. And I am a bit of a skeptic about their commitment but people voted for something different. Conservative British commentators, itching to inflict some payback on the uppity Irish, can sniff about the result, but Ireland has to get on with it

                            FF will go into coalition with SF. Yes, its a huge risk, but for FF everything is a risk and all options are bad. Better take a huge gamble in power than one out of power. The dog fight will be over the spoils, independents/greens/labor may have a big say probably rejecting a SF Taoiseach.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by blackwarrior View Post
                              Sinn Fein's results and subsequent behaviour already making waves. (Owen Polley is a conservative commentator as far as I know). He has a point.


                              https://capx.co/sinn-feins-success-h...35ac-241842337

                              So what have we learnt from some recent elections. Catchy soundbites win!! It doesnt matter if there is any basis in fact....its even advantage if it isnt.
                              Make America Great Again/Lock her up
                              Get Brexit done

                              Time for Change.....and what happens as soon as these purveyors of Change top the polls they start singing songs about 100/800 years and euligise terrorists. Great to see all the Catalans supporting them as well. Unfortunately ETA couldnt make it.

                              They are now trying to get 1 of the 2 that they are changing get into government with them.

                              So many ironies in this election
                              Homelessness and Health are not priorities..education is. Huge ignorance of history and Economics to think that a crowd with a record 2nd to the Catholic church on how they handled sex abuse in recent years, have a long standing record bullying complaints by their own members, proven links with terrorism, drug dealing, over supplying of ink cartridges,allegations of brothels,shady builders get a mandate for Change??

                              Did people in Tipp or Kerry vote for Change?? Because they continue to ensure poll toppers are Lowry and Healy Raes.
                              For some reason the media went soft on Mary Lou and people who could barely get into 3 figures in local elections topped the polls.

                              Finally I think Simon Coveney was possibly too good at his job. By finally get the Northern Assembly back running after 3 years of these bunch getting paid for nothing he gave them the optics of looking legitimate.

                              I believe FF and FG for all their faults should keep well clear of SF and their motley crew and leave them form a government themselves. Sure they want Change. Give the people what they want Mary Lou, Ellis, Lowry, Mattie McGrath, Verona Murphy, Paul Murphy, Healy Raes and the Greens.

                              Comment


                                Does anyone know what was the SF percentage of the overall vote, only taking into account the constituencies where they ran candidates?
                                "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                                Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

                                Comment

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