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Irish General Election 2020: It's Show Time!

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    Recent elections show the that the Irish electorate is a sucker for populist bandwagons. They go from nearly voting a far right thick as president one year, to a left leaning government the next.

    A bit uneasy on Sinn Fein, mainly because of septic quality of their new TDs and the on the ground party culture which has seen bullying/harressement of members.

    However, I'm much happier with them in joint 3rd in a proportional rep system like we have, than the right ideology that has taken full control of things in the UK in US.
    "There are probably more annoying things than being hectored about African development by a wealthy Irish rock star in a cowboy hat, but I can't think of one at the moment"

    Paul Theroux

    Comment


      2 seats left to fill
      "Some people don't know their easy lives... I wouldn't be so ungrateful" - Fiacre Ryan - #AutismAndMe

      Comment


        And we are done. FF get most seats by a nose
        Last edited by Hugged Rugger; 11th-February-2020, 00:05.
        "Some people don't know their easy lives... I wouldn't be so ungrateful" - Fiacre Ryan - #AutismAndMe

        Comment


          One needs to keep the big picture in mind. Republicanism is not fascist in essence. In fact part of its authentic core ethos is anti imperialism. This can be an enlightening force in Irish culture going forward. Because corporate imperialism is one of the major scourges on humanity and it needs to be challenged. The 'shadowey' bosses are a culture that was necessary for their survival in the struggle against the treaty and partition. You can argue that violence was unnecessary but that argument is a luxury that those somewhat immune from the oppression that NI Nationalists suffered could indulge. Usually to justify their own Ostrich like attitude. Non violence can work but mostly it doesn't.
          History proves this is the reality time and time again.
          If you are attacked by a wild beast but you are so altruistic that you would rather sacrifice your life than kill it, well that's a noble thing. But equally you also have the right to defend yourself even if that means killing your attacker. Negotiation and appeals don't usually work on wild animals.
          And what was it Nationalists faced? They faced an opponent whose very modus operandi was violent subjudication. Unionists were enthusiastic supporters of British imperialism. That's the reason they were put there.
          In a war, atrocities are inevitable, and mindless murders. One day no doubt we will evolve beyond war but we're nowhere near that yet.
          You have a right to defend yourself against an aggressor. All the attacks on SF violence are just political opportunism and cant. Brainless sheep will mindlessly swallow that and parrot it. SF are in the process of shedding their revolutionary make up and the Irish electorate won't tolerate its continuation.There a ballot box there and they'll be turfed out if that's their carry on.
          What's the alternative? Two parties wedded without conscience to the banking and corptocratic status quo that will never uplift the disadvantaged.
          Give them a chance. They might achieve something before they themselves become mired down in complacency and self interest.

          ​​​​​​
          Last edited by tippete7trees; 11th-February-2020, 03:28.

          Comment


            Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
            One needs to keep the big picture in mind. Republicanism is not fascist in essence. In fact part of its authentic core ethos is anti imperialism. This can be an enlightening force in Irish culture going forward. Because corporate imperialism is one of the major scourges on humanity and it needs to be challenged. The 'shadowey' bosses are a culture that was necessary for their survival in the struggle against the treaty and partition. You can argue that violence was unnecessary but that argument is a luxury that those somewhat immune from the oppression that NI Nationalists suffered could indulge. Usually to justify their own Ostrich like attitude. Non violence can work but mostly it doesn't.
            History proves this is the reality time and time again.
            If you are attacked by a wild beast but you are so altruistic that you would rather sacrifice your life than kill it, well that's a noble thing. But equally you also have the right to defend yourself even if that means killing your attacker. Negotiation and appeals don't usually work on wild animals.
            And what was it Nationalists faced? They faced an opponent whose very modus operandi was violent subjudication. Unionists were enthusiastic supporters of British imperialism. That's the reason they were put there.
            In a war, atrocities are inevitable, and mindless murders. One day no doubt we will evolve beyond war but we're nowhere near that yet.
            You have a right to defend yourself against an aggressor. All the attacks on SF violence are just political opportunism and cant. Brainless sheep will mindlessly swallow that and parrot it. SF are in the process of shedding their revolutionary make up and the Irish electorate won't tolerate its continuation.There a ballot box there and they'll be turfed out if that's their carry on.
            What's the alternative? Two parties wedded without conscience to the banking and corptocratic status quo that will never uplift the disadvantaged.
            Give them a chance. They might achieve something before they themselves become mired down in complacency and self interest.

            ​​​​​​
            That's all very verbose, but it kinda falls apart when you'd one winning candidate shout UP THE RA! at his count centre and another candidate in a sing song of come out you black and tans at his count centre


            They've a few more layers to shed of hard, leathery inedible onion before you get to the white sweet baked flesh.

            :)
            I am the million man.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
              That's all very verbose, but it kinda falls apart when you'd one winning candidate shout UP THE RA! at his count centre and another candidate in a sing song of come out you black and tans at his count centre


              They've a few more layers to shed of hard, leathery inedible onion before you get to the white sweet baked flesh.

              :)
              Tháinig ár lá!!!

              Comment


                The Shinners have 37. FFG have 73. (Sheldon would love that)

                Greens + Soc Dems + Labour + etc. have 50, of which the Shinners would need 43 to get the Government of the Left they want.

                A good few of the 50 are "Gene Pool FFG" Lowry, Mattie, Mikey and Danny, Verona, Peter Fitz in Louth, Naughten in Roscommon.

                Grealish in Galway is ex PD.

                That's eight, leaving the Left on 79.

                They could throw a few baubles to Kerry and get Mikey and Danny onside, and then "do a Dev in '32/3" , call a snap election, field enough candidates and get up into the high forties.
                Last edited by Piquet; 11th-February-2020, 09:53. Reason: Typo

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Piquet View Post
                  The Shinners have 37. FFG have 73. (Sheldon would love that)

                  Greens + Soc Dems + Labour + etc. have 50, of which the Shinners would need 43 to get the Government of the Left they want.

                  A good few of the 50 are "Gene Pool FFG" Lowry, Mattie, Mikey and Danny, Verona, Peter Fitz in Louth, Naughten in Roscommon.

                  Grealish in Galway is ex PD.

                  That's eight, leaving the Left on 79.

                  They could through a few baubles to Kerry and get Mikey and Danny onside, and then "do a Dev in '32/3" , call a snap election, field enough candidates and get up into the high forties.
                  I don't see Brendan Howlin playing ball. He may be mild mannered but he's long enough in the tooth to know that another election is likely coming in the next 12 months if that was the kind of government formed. Labour won't be voting for Mary Lou as Taoiseach - their current seats and any potential short term gains depend on FFG transfers and their long term survival depends on the SF vote plateauing. Neither of these factors will be helped by making Mary Lou a 6 month martyr Taoiseach. The best thing for Labour is a SF/FF/SPBP government. Labour could take 10-15 seats or more if that kind of government collapsed in 3 years (their major problem is the absence of a credible leader).

                  Will be interesting to see how the Greens and SDs play it. The Greens core vote will not be too happy with Sinn Fein leading a government but their transfers seemed to be 50/50 between SF and FFG. If SF were fielding 2nd candidates in a next election the Greens would need to be getting ahead of the 2nd on the 1st preference and hoping that transfers bring them over the line before FFG or Labour. If they are in government with SF I would expect them to lose seats at the next election. The 12 TDs can probably have the patience to play wait and see as they haven't spent years around the Dail being powerless like Labour had in 2011. But Eamonn Ryan may be jittery for an EV limo and their membership may feel that the climate crisis requires them to be in govt NOW not in 5 years. (Unlike SF the Greens primary objective requires being in power as soon as possible).

                  There are a few centre left gene pool independents (Collins, McNamara, Connolly, Harkin) it will be interesting if the SDs and/or Labour try to reach out to them. What is the threshold for Dail speaking time? (Shanahan, Berry, Pringle and Canney could be added to that list also but are probably less willing to be part of a formal party)

                  Comment


                    Well the people have spoken as the saying goes .
                    the exit polls at 22 % each roughly came to pass .

                    FF 38 SF 37 FG 35 and the rest.

                    Not my desired choice but I think the best option going forward is an FF FG coalition with possibly GREEN or SOC DEM and some independents.

                    a coalition with SF for any of FF or FG will end in failure . FF FG should in all effect merge to one party and provide a centre based option for Gov an an alternative to the left based party's .
                    in my opinion it could be their last chance at doing the right thing for the country, with SOC DEMS on board there is no reason why they cannot steal the clothes of SF and implement meaningful change in housing and health going forward .

                    FF in my opinion would be very unwise to currently coalesce with SF . SF would destroy them from within gov .

                    Comment


                      I still think a FF / FG / Greens, possibly Labour coalition the most likely. I cannot see either FF or FG entertaining SF, and from a SF point of view it'll suit them to be an opposition party.

                      ​​​​​​

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                      Comment


                        AS long as Eamon Ryan doesn't scupper the M20 I would be happy to see Greens involved
                        I am the million man.

                        Comment


                          Had to unsubscribe from following IT last night - the Shinners commentary was going to induce a stroke....

                          Defence of David Cullinanes "up the RA" comment ranged from - sure dont the Orange bastards sing the sash (so much for Wolf Tones ideals) to deal with it.

                          Their lack of basic knowledge of democracy would have been funny if it wasnt so sad - "We got most first prefs (ergo sum) we have a right to be the government" * Note they didnt use the words Ergo Sum.

                          What is interesting is the Diaspora who are lapping this up - one barely lterate chap who admitted being born and raised in UK to irish parents went so far as to call those non Sfers West Brits - irony was lost on him
                          "I've got lots of potatos that need peeling and manure that needs shovelling" -M. Burns :_skull__rvmp_by_bad

                          Comment


                            Shouting "Up the RA!!"?

                            Harmless high jinks.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                              Shouting "Up the RA!!"?

                              Harmless high jinks.
                              Yeah sure this guy is just the man to talk to Arlene Boris etc - what a guy - a cliche laden wannabe .
                              "I've got lots of potatos that need peeling and manure that needs shovelling" -M. Burns :_skull__rvmp_by_bad

                              Comment


                                Interesting pair to invoke. It's a key characteristic of politicians like Boris that they don't adhere to the usual diplomatic formalities and protocols themselves, but rather are often flagrant in breaching them as they think it makes them look strong in the eyes of their supporters. "We're going to have our cake, and eat our cake ..."
                                Tis but a scratch.

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