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Irish General Election 2020: It's Show Time!

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    It's a shocking day to be Irish.

    Without a major reallignment in Irish politics the IRA is on the verge of being that natural party of government for the next few decades. That should send a shiver down the spine of any right thinking human being. And before any of the "RA apologists come talking about that being in the past - don't waste your breath I won't be engaging with you while the McCabes still feel the agony every day of what your bastards did to an honest hard working man serving his country. The Army Council still exists and still directs operations. Sinn Fein is the tip of the iceberg of a movement that has a mission to destroy the state. How the country has come to this is beyond my imagination.

    There is only one "brand" left in Irish politics that can avoid this shift happening, is sufficiently non-toxic and reflects the will of the majority of the people in the country and that is the SDLP. LAB/FF/SD/I4C along with centrist and left independents, centre-left elements of FG and the less loony elements of S-PBP need to start engaging now on merging under the SDLP brand, perhaps with a moderate neutral party leader like Marion Harkin if she were to get the seat in Sligo-Leitrim. A party like that should be able to take 60+ seats and respond to the public demand for change

    Comment


      Originally posted by Sulla View Post

      There's no way it's FF/FG, FG already set for opposition, they know it's time to put it up to SF and see how the boot will be on the other foot. FF will do anything for power, always have. Both FF and FG will hope the curse of the 2nd party in Govt will this time fall on SF. that's the long game.

      A FF/FG just wouldn't wash with the electorate, the press and everyone, and also give SF another opposition boost, ie: they still claim to be able to fix everything without doing it
      From a FF perspective, which is the lesser of two evils? FF / FG, or FF / SF? I'd argue the former. Absolutely it's a cup of cold sick either way.
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      Comment


        Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

        Even if they have enough candidates, 25% doesn't get them into power. They'd probably be up at around 50. But looking at how they transferred those extra seats would be taking votes and seats from the smaller hard left like Solidarity/PBP. who would be a natural coalition partner. Even then with Greens, Labour and maybe SDs, they'd still be short of 80.

        Another thing to point out is that in a lot of those poll topping constituencies, they polled lower than FF or FG, but only having one candidate meant that their vote wasn't split. Running 2 candidates outside Dublin and Waterford where they had massive surpluses could actually do them damage in the tighter constituencies.
        This is true, though I think with careful management the could get to 60 plus. Would the Greens, PBP, Labour form a coalition with SF in that event? I think they would.

        This is uncharted territory for Irish politics. As above, previously unthinkable alliances will be formed. I think FF would be insane to go into coalition with SF, and would get absolutely hammered in subsequent elections. All my buddies at home are FF, and they are appalled at the prospect of going into govt with them.
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        Comment


          Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
          SF will not maximise their seats (two potential seats lost already in Dublin by running only 1 candidate) but not sure the new SF voters knew what they were really voting for.
          They knew what they were not voting for. A party that sold out to developers and banks and another that seems more interested in ensuring the vested interests they are in bed with and vulture funds keep on screwing the public.
          if you are a young person starting out in life how are you going to own your own home if the rents you pay are killing you.
          FF and FG both got what they deserved, a right kick in the teeth, their own complacency and not listening to the electorate due to either arrogance or stupidity though in FGs case I think it is the first caused this seismic shake up.
          it’s time we stopped looking backwards in politics and resurrecting the civil war and old issues, we have challenging times ahead and the old guard do not seem to have grasped that young people want a future they can have a stake in. By voting SF they probably feel they have a party more attuned to their concerns and needs.
          psychoanalysis is wasted on the Irish; Sigmund Freud

          Comment


            The young people of this country have been conned by snake oil salesmen. On one hand I hope they get into government so we can see how unrealistic their manifesto is, but on the other I fear the economic consequences of them trying to implement it.

            And I refuse to forget their past when one of their TDs is a convicted IRA terrorist who yesterday chose to celebrate his reelection by singing Come out ye Black and Tans at the count center and they have others with some very shady links.
            Last edited by Wallyman; 10th-February-2020, 16:14.

            Comment


              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

              Absolutely it's a cup of cold sick either way.
              Is cold sick or warm sick worse?

              Comment


                UCD Predictions have FF on 39 with SF on 37 and FG on 36.

                Any two of them would need help to get to 80.

                The Shinners are still talking about forming a government without FF or FG.

                That would take some doing, they would need to get 43 of the other 48 TDs to support them.

                Comment


                  Good fun in Dublin Fingal

                  Smith, Labour, is 170 ahead of Mulligan, Independents for Change for the last seat with 227 votes from three surpluses to be distributed.

                  The three are Green (146), FF( 78) and FG (3)

                  EDIT It seems the Green's surplus has extended Smith's lead but Mulligan has asked for a recount.
                  Last edited by Piquet; 10th-February-2020, 18:21.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Piquet View Post
                    UCD Predictions have FF on 39 with SF on 37 and FG on 36.

                    Any two of them would need help to get to 80.

                    The Shinners are still talking about forming a government without FF or FG.

                    That would take some doing, they would need to get 43 of the other 48 TDs to support them.
                    Shinners have to say that but no way it will happen

                    FF have been out of power a long time, the lure will be irresistible. They will gamble that they can lure SF voters back to them and come out of it stronger (they wont).
                    FG happy to be opposition - their future as a centrist, fiscally conservative, socially liberal party looks a lot brighter than FFs.
                    FF look increasingly like the irrelevant party and even if they know the risks they will take a Coalition and hope for the best.
                    Maybe not the end of Civil War politics just a new phase with leftist SF taking on a centrist FG

                    The big unknown is if the Shinners want power now or happy to wait until the next election the timing of which they can likely decide.
                    Last edited by Yatenga; 10th-February-2020, 17:49.

                    Comment


                      The usual suspects here are strangulating themselves with their nikkers in fake horror over our Fenian friends winning the election. SF are the cutest of them all and their real ideology is pragmatismology. Let's see how they handle the entitled shysters who've been screwing ordinary people time and again. They don't respond to reason but need a good metaphorical knee capping to put manners on them.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Wallyman View Post
                        The young people of this country have been conned by snake oil salesmen. On one hand I hope they get into government so we can see how unrealistic their manifesto is, but on the other I fear the economic consequences of them trying to implement it.

                        And I refuse to forget their past when one of their TDs is a convicted IRA terrorist who yesterday chose to celebrate his reelection by singing Come out ye Black and Tans at the count center and they have others with some very shady links.
                        Fact check. plenty of middle aged and older voters voted for them as well.

                        Get your head out of your arse. People are fed up to the gills with the same old same old guff from FF and FG.

                        Well maybe SF get a chance to show what they can do and you know what if it's crap too there is a thing called a ballot box where they can get voted out pretty handily too.

                        I'll tell you something though they wont saddle us with hundreds of billions of debt like FF did and enabled by FG
                        Life is good

                        Comment


                          Sinn Féin TD defends saying 'up the RA' at post-election rally. See Indo website.

                          Didn’t take long for the balaclava to slip.
                          The early bird catches the worm but it's the second mouse that gets the cheese.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Wallyman View Post
                            The young people of this country have been conned by snake oil salesmen. On one hand I hope they get into government so we can see how unrealistic their manifesto is, but on the other I fear the economic consequences of them trying to implement it.

                            And I refuse to forget their past when one of their TDs is a convicted IRA terrorist who yesterday chose to celebrate his reelection by singing Come out ye Black and Tans at the count center and they have others with some very shady links.
                            I'm no SF apologist, but, it's ok for them to be in government in Stormont. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

                            Also, did that Black and Tan song not recently get quite high in the charts thanks to a complete over reaction and RIC shaming that happened not long ago. Is it the fact they're so brash and open about their Republicanisim that is the issue?
                            Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
                            http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Jackie Brown View Post

                              I'm no SF apologist, but, it's ok for them to be in government in Stormont. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

                              Also, did that Black and Tan song not recently get quite high in the charts thanks to a complete over reaction and RIC shaming that happened not long ago. Is it the fact they're so brash and open about their Republicanisim that is the issue?
                              I dont think their Republicanism is the issue (although i think most people voted for them in spite of and not because of their Republicanism).
                              My fear of SF is that they are at their heart undemocratic. That they are beholden to shadowy figures behind the scenes who is using the party as a front. I am sure that there is no simple yes and no answer to that question. And I would like to think that including them in government means they become even more committed to Irish democracy. And of course they are entitled to be in government, but at the same time its perfectly reasonable for other parties to say they dont want to be in government with them.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Jackie Brown View Post

                                I'm no SF apologist, but, it's ok for them to be in government in Stormont. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

                                Also, did that Black and Tan song not recently get quite high in the charts thanks to a complete over reaction and RIC shaming that happened not long ago. Is it the fact they're so brash and open about their Republicanisim that is the issue?
                                I think that is a fair point and something I have been grappling with. How dare we tell SF to enter government with the DUP and then say they are not good enough for us. However, while not all of their policies are wrong they have been very populist down here (while being fat more realistic in the North).

                                I hope it does not go wrong (economically) but they do deserve a go at Govt based on the results and I hope that there is a degree of responsibility in drawing together a responsible programme for government. Let’s see if they are really serious about it and try to build a coalition of the left with responsible and workable policies.

                                But - if things fall apart in the next six to twelve months then we will see the clips of “up the ra” etc. in the next campaign which will be far less kind on SF. They will run more candidates and end up with around 10 - 15 seats.

                                As an aside the biggest failing of the current Government was new politics. Shane Ross running transport while creating non existent judiciary issues. Having politicians in nappies running serious Ministries, and FG going with Leo as leader (who listens to PR people rather than seasoned politician's) instead of than Coveney or Donoghue was not helpful. Plus running an election in Feb was stupid and shows poor judgement. Varadkar should have done a deal with Martin to go to the country in May - better weather, better mood, and hopefully some green shoots.
                                Last edited by The Last Stand; 10th-February-2020, 21:54.

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