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Irish General Election 2020: It's Show Time!

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    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
    The tide and the power is with SF. Hard to see what either FF or FG can do to recover. If a very healthy economy cannot deliver them success then where can they turn to? The mould is broken. All SF need to do is keep steady and the next election will deliver 50+ seats.
    Likely FF and FG merger soon after.
    So do I get the pension at 65 now rather than 67......that would be great considering I voted FG.
    Anybody who sees a psychiatrist would want their head examined. &nb sp;Henry Ford

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      Coveney said last night he doesn't see any confidence and supply agreements being part of the government.
      "Some people don't know their easy lives... I wouldn't be so ungrateful" - Fiacre Ryan - #AutismAndMe

      Comment


        It has been other worldly listening to RTE all day yesterday in a very windy Sheffield, having watched the debates on line.

        While people are saying SF got it wrong not running enough candidates, their tactic of single runners meant they repeatedly topped the poll. Throughout their shape shifting history they were always in it for the long haul, and still are- it wasn’t just about this election, but future elections.

        For me the rag tag and bobtail collection of earnest independents was a signal the major parties ignored ( and for nostalgic reasons alone include labour here), and by not realising the critique offered by many of these (not all by any means, see pork-barrreler Healy-Ray) they have allowed SF to thrive in the twilight world- and now, for them at least, and maybe for us, an awful reality is dawning.

        I acknowledge the points made above by BB and others, the the GFA is almost a quarter of a century ago, and while I never thought I would see in my lifetime a NI as peaceful as it has been ( and I acknowledge here the gangsterism, punishments, and new/old vestiges traditional terrorism), I cannot welcome, nor could I ever vote for, the now perhaps unstoppable march of SF to government north and south.

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          Originally posted by cornerboy View Post

          So do I get the pension at 65 now rather than 67......that would be great considering I voted FG.
          By the time you get to 65.........it'll probably be out to 95. So, if I was you I'd source some monkey gland tablets pronto
          Stand up for the Ulcer men

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            Lowery in Tpp, and this moron in Kerry, as well as less women elected than the last time out, a lot of prominent female Repeal the 8th candidates didn't make it, is this really a change electorate or just a populist swing one?

            https://www.irishexaminer.com/breaki...3G9hHKvtGp2MPE
            Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

            Comment


              Originally posted by Sulla View Post
              Lowery in Tpp, and this moron in Kerry, as well as less women elected than the last time out, a lot of prominent female Repeal the 8th candidates didn't make it, is this really a change electorate or just a populist swing one?

              https://www.irishexaminer.com/breaki...3G9hHKvtGp2MPE
              When you look at things like a complete unknown who didn't really canvass topping the poll in Clare for SF and another SF candidate in Kildare going abroad on holidays during the campaign but still topping the poll, you've got to say that a lot of it is a protest vote against FF/FG. I'm not sure the numbers are sustainable in the long run and I think any time in government will actually reduce their vote.

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                Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

                When you look at things like a complete unknown who didn't really canvass topping the poll in Clare for SF and another SF candidate in Kildare going abroad on holidays during the campaign but still topping the poll, you've got to say that a lot of it is a protest vote against FF/FG. I'm not sure the numbers are sustainable in the long run and I think any time in government will actually reduce their vote.
                FG rightly drop like a hot stone Verona Murphy, yet looks like she's getting in? mind boggles..
                Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

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                  Some astonishing figures in the results. How many SF candidates were elected on the first or second count? Unprecedented in modern Irish politics.

                  Either FF / FG enter into a formal coalition, or I think it's go again time. Surely both FF and FG will realise that they will be hammered in a 2nd GE - SF will be scouting the streets for anyone with a 26+6=1 tattoo...
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                    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                    Some astonishing figures in the results. How many SF candidates were elected on the first or second count? Unprecedented in modern Irish politics.

                    Either FF / FG enter into a formal coalition, or I think it's go again time. Surely both FF and FG will realise that they will be hammered in a 2nd GE - SF will be scouting the streets for anyone with a 26+6=1 tattoo...
                    There's no way it's FF/FG, FG already set for opposition, they know it's time to put it up to SF and see how the boot will be on the other foot. FF will do anything for power, always have. Both FF and FG will hope the curse of the 2nd party in Govt will this time fall on SF. that's the long game.

                    A FF/FG just wouldn't wash with the electorate, the press and everyone, and also give SF another opposition boost, ie: they still claim to be able to fix everything without doing it
                    Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Wallyman View Post

                      When you look at things like a complete unknown who didn't really canvass topping the poll in Clare for SF and another SF candidate in Kildare going abroad on holidays during the campaign but still topping the poll, you've got to say that a lot of it is a protest vote against FF/FG. I'm not sure the numbers are sustainable in the long run and I think any time in government will actually reduce their vote.
                      That is the hope- someone earlier speculated whether the effects on smaller parties in government might extend to SF- the complacency (and deafness) of FG and FF is why we are here, and I’m not sure they are really as capable politically as they assume- SF are battle hardened, some in many senses of that phrase, one suspects.

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                        Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                        Some astonishing figures in the results. How many SF candidates were elected on the first or second count? Unprecedented in modern Irish politics.

                        Either FF / FG enter into a formal coalition, or I think it's go again time. Surely both FF and FG will realise that they will be hammered in a 2nd GE - SF will be scouting the streets for anyone with a 26+6=1 tattoo...
                        Even if they have enough candidates, 25% doesn't get them into power. They'd probably be up at around 50. But looking at how they transferred those extra seats would be taking votes and seats from the smaller hard left like Solidarity/PBP. who would be a natural coalition partner. Even then with Greens, Labour and maybe SDs, they'd still be short of 80.

                        Another thing to point out is that in a lot of those poll topping constituencies, they polled lower than FF or FG, but only having one candidate meant that their vote wasn't split. Running 2 candidates outside Dublin and Waterford where they had massive surpluses could actually do them damage in the tighter constituencies.

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                          Originally posted by Sulla View Post
                          Lowery in Tpp, and this moron in Kerry, as well as less women elected than the last time out, a lot of prominent female Repeal the 8th candidates didn't make it, is this really a change electorate or just a populist swing one?

                          https://www.irishexaminer.com/breaki...3G9hHKvtGp2MPE
                          I think you're right Sulla. Speaking to friends and family it was a case of picking someone not FFG. Labour still hold a lot of distain from the electorate from 2011. For me the biggest losers are the SD's and Labour. This backlash on FFG has been in the pipeline for a while now. They should have gone together IMO. Maybe even looked at the Greens or Boyd-Barrett and targeted the urban areas where I think they could have made significant gains.
                          He's a guy who gets up at six o'clock in the morning regardless of what time it is.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                            Some astonishing figures in the results. How many SF candidates were elected on the first or second count? Unprecedented in modern Irish politics.

                            Either FF / FG enter into a formal coalition, or I think it's go again time. Surely both FF and FG will realise that they will be hammered in a 2nd GE - SF will be scouting the streets for anyone with a 26+6=1 tattoo...
                            Untill now, in 24 from the 39 constuancies, SF got the first elected post, and 8 the second one . Amazing result. And astonishing system for somebody like me who does not get used to a system of election like yours.
                            The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

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                              Joan Collins looks like she's gone, Ruth Coppinger already gone, Shinners have taken their mantle and votes, they may say it's a left swing, it's not, it's move away from FG/FF because they've been there too long, SD's are Can't Believe they're not Labour, have done well enough.
                              Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

                              Comment


                                Don't underestimate SF. They might be rough and inexperienced in running an independent government but they are ultra street wise and not top heavy with complacent Vallely type wasters. They won't be emasculated as a slightly smaller partner in a coalition for a variety of reasons.
                                The crucial thing with this result is 'critical mass'. What'll happen in the next election is that that cohort who don't want to waste their votes on smaller parties will come out of the wood work to boost their votes.
                                As a mainstream party they'll also attract more talent and become more slick.
                                Stand up for the Ulcer men

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