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Irish General Election 2020: It's Show Time!

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    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
    SF's current position is a symptom of FF and FGs generations of failure as much as anything. It's only really surprising that it's taken this long for a third party to make a serious push - a reflection of the even greater long term failure of the Irish Labour Party.

    It's been 22 years since the GFA was signed. Hume is 83 and suffering from dementia, Trimble is 75 and in the House of Lords, Paisley and McGuinness are dead, and even Adams is finally off the scene.

    To a lot of people the hunger strikes and the mainland bombing campaigns are no more a part of their political thinking than the Civil War or the Easter Rising. The IRA has been on ceasefire for nearly a quarter of a century.

    There's been a generational transition, and within a decade SFs ties to the PIRA will seem no more relevant than FF/FGs Civil War politics.
    Generations of failure from F/FG/Lab- certainly! they failed from the 60s on when there were opportunities for this country to grow outwards
    But SF were in the business of undermining this state at that time with its support of the IRA campaign - they viewed the state as having no basis in legality (so much for democracy) - a view many hold onto despite their presence in the Dail

    It cannot point to the FF/FG/Lab failures without looking at its own part in the stagnation - including an abstentionist policy up until the late 80s.
    A blindspot to acknowledge that the Unionists dont and wont go to a 32 state quietly despite all the good wishes. A sweeping under the carpet of their support for the atrocities of the past.
    They are in the long game but in a very strange way I would like to see them in government soon and have to deal with the realPolitik of taxation/FDI/HSE/Housing (that said I cannot and will not ever vote for them)

    I agree it is certainly generational (those who dont remember and/or dont care) but their legacy lives on with the criminality witnessed in the abduction/torture of the Quinn executive
    SF have had more local rep resignations on bullying claims than any of the other parties.

    "I've got lots of potatos that need peeling and manure that needs shovelling" -M. Burns :_skull__rvmp_by_bad

    Comment


      Originally posted by SkullinPints View Post

      Generations of failure from F/FG/Lab- certainly! they failed from the 60s on when there were opportunities for this country to grow outwards
      But SF were in the business of undermining this state at that time with its support of the IRA campaign - they viewed the state as having no basis in legality (so much for democracy) - a view many hold onto despite their presence in the Dail

      It cannot point to the FF/FG/Lab failures without looking at its own part in the stagnation - including an abstentionist policy up until the late 80s.
      A blindspot to acknowledge that the Unionists dont and wont go to a 32 state quietly despite all the good wishes. A sweeping under the carpet of their support for the atrocities of the past.
      They are in the long game but in a very strange way I would like to see them in government soon and have to deal with the realPolitik of taxation/FDI/HSE/Housing (that said I cannot and will not ever vote for them)

      I agree it is certainly generational (those who dont remember and/or dont care) but their legacy lives on with the criminality witnessed in the abduction/torture of the Quinn executive
      SF have had more local rep resignations on bullying claims than any of the other parties.
      I'd agree with pretty much all of that. I just think there's no point in their opponents in Irish politics attacking them on that basis. The public have made them a legitimate electoral presence and they have to be engaged with on that basis.

      I'd go as far as to say that I don't care either. A political party, a company, a sports club - they're not moral things. They are what they do at the point in time we're at. Leadership changes, policies change. What matters I think is who is in charge now and what they're doing. If there's still gangsterism they should be 100% held responsible. And I'd agree that there would in an ideal world be more open discussion about their past, but in the absence of a South African style Truth and Reconciliation process in the North we all know realistically that that isn't going to happen.

      I'll admit though that my view on that is born of seeing Parties as something to be joined, engaged in, changed and, if it's relevant, captured.
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment


        Some result for SF. Odds on another election in 2020?
        The only difference between me and a madman is that I'm not mad.
        - Salvador Dali (1904-1989)

        Comment


          Originally posted by Upfront_1979 View Post
          Some result for SF. Odds on another election in 2020?
          Not really all indications were that SF where on an upward curve. With FF & FG spending all of the last week attacking SF it seems they knew this was coming. I guess FF & FG will form another government with the support of the other party. Purely in the "National Interest" of course......
          Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

          Comment


            SF will not maximise their seats (two potential seats lost already in Dublin by running only 1 candidate) but not sure the new SF voters knew what they were really voting for.

            Comment


              Originally posted by McCloud View Post

              Not really all indications were that SF where on an upward curve. With FF & FG spending all of the last week attacking SF it seems they knew this was coming. I guess FF & FG will form another government with the support of the other party. Purely in the "National Interest" of course......
              That could be a recipe for disaster for both of them. The SF vote was as much a vote against the old hegemony of FF and/or FG as a vote for SF. If they now gang up to give 2 fingers to what voters want they'll be punished unmercifully at the next election.
              Stand up for the Ulcer men

              Comment


                Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

                That could be a recipe for disaster for both of them. The SF vote was as much a vote against the old hegemony of FF and/or FG as a vote for SF. If they now gang up to give 2 fingers to what voters want they'll be punished unmercifully at the next election.
                4 more years of the same old same old goes on while SF selects more candidates SF would be insane to go into government with either of FG or FF with the possible prospect of being in power alone next time.
                Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

                Comment


                  Can't let all the shinner excitement/noise pass by without highlighting noted Horseface Gob****e Shane Ross HAS LOST HIS SEAT


                  :D


                  I'm sure the scuba club he gave hundreds of thousands to will be heartbroken, and the inner city soccer clubs he gave pittance to will do a jig.


                  His tyranny on all car users is over. Goodbye and forget you.
                  I am the million man.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
                    Can't let all the shinner excitement/noise pass by without highlighting noted Horseface Gob****e Shane Ross HAS LOST HIS SEAT


                    :D


                    I'm sure the scuba club he gave hundreds of thousands to will be heartbroken, and the inner city soccer clubs he gave pittance to will do a jig.


                    His tyranny on all car users is over. Goodbye and forget you.
                    One good result any way.
                    Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

                    Comment


                      Can't believe that ape Danny Healy Rae got in again. He's a national embarrassment. FF cocked up badly by running 3 candidates in Kerry, had they run 2, both Brassil and Foley could have gotten in.
                      When things go wrong, blame McGahan

                      Comment


                        SF have bent over backwards to appeal to voters in my demographic and it seems to have worked. I'm probably a good average of the knowledge and opinion that Johnny On The Street has of Irish politics but I remain ever sceptical of them.

                        I genuinely don't trust my memory on this so am hoping that the more politically conscious and aware can clarify - from what I recall SF were quite conservatively leaning in the 08-10 period. I interpret that they are presenting themselves as very liberal in the past 12 months and some of the old cliches about them are still ringing in my head (that they are desperate for power and will say/do anything to get in).

                        So in the aftermath I'm trying to decipher how authentic the 'new' SF is and am basically looking to see if they have done an idealogical u-turn in the last decade in order to appeal to the younger, Bernie Sanders equivalent Irish voters. It seems obvious to me that they are just reacting to the social trends in the country (8th amendment & gay marraige)

                        Either way it seems to have worked, and I remain cynical of any parties true capabilities and intentions (as before, a good average of younger Irish political opinion) but I'd appreciate a little clarity in all this smoke if someone with a better memory and knowledge of politics at the time can verify SF's stance roughly 10 years ago.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Kevy-Wevz View Post
                          SF have bent over backwards to appeal to voters in my demographic and it seems to have worked. I'm probably a good average of the knowledge and opinion that Johnny On The Street has of Irish politics but I remain ever sceptical of them.

                          I genuinely don't trust my memory on this so am hoping that the more politically conscious and aware can clarify - from what I recall SF were quite conservatively leaning in the 08-10 period. I interpret that they are presenting themselves as very liberal in the past 12 months and some of the old cliches about them are still ringing in my head (that they are desperate for power and will say/do anything to get in).

                          So in the aftermath I'm trying to decipher how authentic the 'new' SF is and am basically looking to see if they have done an idealogical u-turn in the last decade in order to appeal to the younger, Bernie Sanders equivalent Irish voters. It seems obvious to me that they are just reacting to the social trends in the country (8th amendment & gay marraige)

                          Either way it seems to have worked, and I remain cynical of any parties true capabilities and intentions (as before, a good average of younger Irish political opinion) but I'd appreciate a little clarity in all this smoke if someone with a better memory and knowledge of politics at the time can verify SF's stance roughly 10 years ago.
                          https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...song-1.4167268

                          Comment


                            Game theory needed to predict what will happen 3 players and realistically 2 needed to form a govt.
                            Or 1 + support of 1. Best medium term outcome for any of the 3 is arguably for the other 2 to form a govt, become lone opposition party, and take power in next election. Of the 2 that go into govt highly likely one will eat the other. But who will eat who?
                            i'd say FF get eaten by either FG or SF.
                            SF may calculate best to force a second election, run more candidates and find enough seats to form a left coalition.
                            No clue what's going to happen, the only thing favoring a govt emerging is that most politicians favor short term.

                            Comment


                              The tide and the power is with SF. Hard to see what either FF or FG can do to recover. If a very healthy economy cannot deliver them success then where can they turn to? The mould is broken. All SF need to do is keep steady and the next election will deliver 50+ seats.
                              Likely FF and FG merger soon after.
                              Stand up for the Ulcer men

                              Comment


                                I can't see a Confidence and supply agreement working this time. Say FG offer it to FF. They, FG, offer to abstain if FF can get enough support.

                                If FF are on 45 ish with FG on 38, then FG abstaining would effectively leave a Dáil of 122, and 62 needed for a "majority". FF would need to recruit 17 supporters. Say the Greens go in with them, that's 10 or so. Labour would be another 5, say. The Soc Dems would be needed to get them over the line.

                                That arrangement would leave the Shinners (again) as the main opposition Party and as stated above, they would (again) make hay.

                                Comment

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