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Group Permutations 2014-15

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    Group Permutations 2014-15

    So this year is different, only 5 groups and 3 runner ups to come out.
    Looking at the groups im thinking the following;

    Group 2- Harlequins (12) and Leinster (9) -to come out 1st and 2nd in any order as they are both going to beat castres and wasps and also if leinster win at the weekend they will be on 13 points and both will progress with 20+ points I think.

    Group 3- Toulon (9), Tigers (8), Ulster (6), can only see one team coming out of this group, Tigers and Ulster both have to go to Toulon where they will drop points, Tigers have to go to Ravenhill where I think they will lose, I see Toulon walking it with Tigers finishing on around 14 points and Ulster around the same.

    Group 4- Toulouse (12), Glasgow (9), Toulouse to play Glasgow yet in Scotland, we would need Toulouse to win against glasgow and hope that Glascow dont pull off a win away to bath (bath might have lost interest at that stage). If Glasgow lose to both Toulouse and Bath then only Toulouse leaving the group.

    Group 5- Racing (10), Northampton (10), with Treviso in the group and Racing playing ospreys at home I can see 2 teams coming out of this group with 20+ points.

    So in summary I think the best chance Munster have of qualifying from our group will be getting a losing bonus next week to clermont (might not happen), beat saracens away from home and get BP win at home to sale and end up on 19 points. I think we are then in direct competition with glasgow (Group 4) for the 3rd runner up spot as I think two groups will have 2 teams on 20+ points.

    So keep an eye on Glasgow at home to Toulouse and away to bath.