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The state of the parties

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  • The state of the parties

    There are five categories of teams at the moment


    Qualified In their own hands Need results to go their way Need Miracles Can’t qualify
    Leinster
    Munster
    Clermont
    Saracens
    Connacht
    Wasps
    Toulouse
    Glasgow
    Toulon
    Montpellier
    Exeter
    Bordeaux-Begles
    Castres
    Northampton
    Ulster
    Leicester
    Racing 92
    Zebre
    Llanelli
    Sale

    Reminder

    The Nigels’ Cup has a different Tie-breaking system from the previous incarnation. The first criterion is Match Points in the games between the teams, as before. The next Criterion is now Points Difference, followed by Tries in the relevant games. If this doesn’t split the teams (or to split teams when ranking teams for the Play-offs) the next criterion is overall Points Difference in the Pool followed by Tries scored in all matches followed by suspensions and finally the drawing of Lots.

    Pool One P W D L F A PD T Pts
    Munster 5 4 0 1 138 54 84 15 20
    Glasgow 5 3 0 2 117 86 31 12 14
    Leicester 5 2 0 3 61 147 -86 3 8
    Racing 92 5 1 0 4 79 103 -29 11 5

    Fixtures: 17:30 Saturday: Munster v Racing Sky Sports Leicester v Glasgow BT Sport

    This Pool is very straightforward at this stage. Munster have won it but 20 points may not be enough to get a home Quarter final. See below.

    Any win will get Glasgow a second placed spot but there is a possibility that fewer points might do. See below.

    Leicester and Racing are out of contention.
    Pool Two P W D L F A PD T Pts
    Connacht 5 4 0 1 178 99 79 25 18
    Wasps 5 3 1 1 169 84 84 10 17
    Toulouse 5 2 1 2 145 81 64 19 14
    Zebre 5 0 0 5 63 290 -227 8 0

    Fixtures15:15 (IRISH TIME!!) Toulouse v Connacht Sky Sports Zebre v Wasps BT Sports

    I'm working on the assumption that Wasps will get a fiver against Zebre.

    On the face of it, Connacht are the only team in this Pool who can win it without depending on other results. It’s not quite as simple as that. They need to match Wasps Match Points in Parma, Wasps having won the head to head, which effectively means getting a “fiver” to stay top of the Pool. Any win or any draw would put Connacht on 20 points at least and through in second place. A 1-4 or 2-5 loss would keep them in second place and through on 19 at least. Any other result would either put leave them level with Toulouse and losing the Head to Head or behind them.

    Toulouse must beat Connacht 5-0, 5-1 or 4-0 to go to 18 at least and through in second place. Anything else and they are out.

    Zebre are out of contention.
    Pool Three P W D L F A PD T Pts
    Saracens 5 4 1 0 171 84 87 19 20
    RC Toulon 5 3 0 2 117 90 27 9 15
    Llanelli 5 2 1 2 118 129 -11 9 10
    Sale 5 0 0 5 41 144 -103 5 0

    Fixtures: 15:15 Saturday Sale v Llanelli Sky Sports Saracens v Toulon BT Sports

    Any win, draw or loss with a bonus point will win Saracens the pool. If they get no points, losing by eight and matching Toulon’s Tries will also do. Losing by eight and failing to match Toulon’s tries and not getting a Try Bonus or losing by more than eight without a Try Bonus would put them through in second place on 20 points.

    Toulon must win 5-0 and by more than eight. If they win by eight they must get one try more than Saracens to win the pool. Any other win, a draw or a two point loss would qualify them in second place. As with Glasgow, fewer than 17 points might be enough to get a second spot. See below.

    Llanelli and Sale are out of contention.

    Pool Four P W D L F A PD T Pts
    Leinster 5 4 0 1 203 63 140 28 21
    Montpellier 5 2 0 3 94 132 -38 11 11
    Castres 5 2 0 3 120 123 -3 12 10
    Northampton 5 2 0 3 74 173 -99 5 9
    Fixtures
    19:45 (IRISH TIME!!) Friday Castres v Leinster Sky Sports Montpellier v Northampton BT Sports

    Leinster have won the pool. Montpellier, Castres and Northampton must win and hope that other results go their way to be in with an outside chance of progression.
    Having won the relevant Head to Head, Montpellier can afford to get one point fewer than Castres and they will still be ahead of them. They must also beat or draw with Northampton. Any win will therefore do. If they get three points, Castres must not get a bonus point win over Leinster. If they get two points in a draw, Castres mustn’t beat Leinster. Losing to Northampton would put them out of second place.

    Castres must get two points more than Montpellier do to overtake them. A Fiver over Leinster would do but only if Montpellier get three points or fewer v Northampton. Four would do but only if Montpellier get two points or fewer v Northampton. If they get three, Montpellier mustn’t get any more than one and Northampton mustn’t get five. Two points for Castres would leave them with no chance of second.

    Northampton must beat Montpellier and get two points more than Castres.

    Pool Five P W D L F A PD T Pts
    Clermont 5 4 0 1 163 105 58 20 21
    Exeter 5 3 0 2 84 98 -14 9 11
    Bordeaux-Begles 5 2 0 3 92 98 -6 10 10
    Ulster 5 2 0 3 109 147 -38 13 9
    Fixtures
    13:00 (IRISH TIME!!) Ulster v Bordeaux-Begles Sky Sports Clermont v Exeter BT Sports.

    Again, Clermont have won the Pool. Exeter, Bordeaux and Ulster – yes Ulster – must win and hope that other results go their way.
    Exeter have won the Head to Head over Bordeaux-Begles so any win in Clermont would get them second. Three points would only do if Bordeaux –Begles don’t get a fiver. Two would do only if Bordeaux-Begles fail to win and Ulster don’t get a fiver. One point would have them overtaken by the winner in Ravenhill. If that game ended 2-2, or 3-2 to Ulster, Exeter would be second having won the Head to Head over Bordeaux-Begles and the Three-way head to head respectively. 3-3 or 3-2 to Bordeaux- Begles would put them second. No point would have them passed out by the winner in Ravenhill or by Bordeaux Begles in the case of a draw or by both if it were a 3-2 draw to Ulster.
    Bordeaux-Begles must beat or draw with Ulster and get two points more than Exeter.
    Ulster must beat Bordeaux-Begles and get three points more than Exeter.

    Second place set up
    Connacht*^ 18 79 25
    Wasps*^ 17 84 10
    Toulon^ 15 27 9
    Toulouse*^ 14 64 19
    Glasgow 14 33 12
    Exeter* 11 -14 9
    Montpellier* 11 -38 11
    Castres 10 -3 12
    Bordeaux-Begles 10 -6 10
    Ulster 9 -38 13
    Northampton 9 -99 5
    Leicester 8 -55 3

    * Might end up third in Pool.
    ^ Might win Pool

    To qualify in second place, a team needs to have two other second placed teams behind it. The most Exeter and Montpellier can get is 16 points so 17 points is the threshold at the moment.

    Wasps are there already, although they will likely get five more and could well win their Pool. Unless, of course, they foul up in Parma and are overtaken by Toulouse while remaining behind Connacht.

    If Wasps do win the Pool, Connacht will qualify in second if they stay second. Toulouse will qualify if they match or overtake Connacht’s total and Connacht will be out.

    There is of course the nightmare/ridiculous scenario of Connacht being caught by Toulouse, Toulon and Glasgow losing but results in Pools Four and Five going their way and they qualify on 15 and 14 respectively while Connacht go out on 18.

    Two points for Toulon will qualify them. If Toulon win the Pool, Saracens will qualify on 20.

    If Toulon get one point, they must hope two of the following happen:
    · Montpellier don’t get a fiver against Northampton
    · Exeter don’t get a fiver in Clermont
    · Glasgow don’t get two or more in Leicester.

    No points for Toulon would decrease all the above totals by one.

    Any win over Leicester will qualify Glasgow. A Three point draw would also do.
    A two point draw would also do unless Exeter get a fiver (in Clermont!?) and win by 47 points or Montpellier get a fiver and beat Northampton by 71 or more.
    A two point loss would do unless Exeter get a fiver and win by 47 points minus whatever Glasgow lose by or Montpellier get a fiver and win by 71 minus whatever Glasgow lose by.
    One point would do unless Exeter or Montpellier get a fiver or get four winning by 47 and 71 respectively.
    No point would do if both Exeter and Montpellier fail to win unless Northampton get a fiver and win by 132 minus whatever Glasgow lose by.

    Montpellier, Castres, Exeter and Bordeaux Begles must win as big as they can to get second in their respective Pools and hope that Glasgow foul up in Leicester or Toulon foul up in Barnet or both. See above.

    Ulster will qualify if they get second in their Pool ( by beating Bordeaux-Begles with the bonus, to go to 14 with Exeter failing to reach 14 as set out above), Glasgow get nowt in Leicester, Ulster win by 71 minus what Glasgow lose by and Northampton beat Montpellier but not by enough to overtake Ulster.

    Similarly Northampton will qualify if they get the bonus win in Montpellier, winning by 132 points minus what Glasgow lose by and Castres get nowt v Leinster) Glasgow foul up in Leicester and Ulster beat Bordeaux-Begles but not by enough to overtake them.
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