View Full Version : Pool C Permutations - decent chance that Ireland may not get out of group?

21st-September-2011, 12:01
Am I right in thinking there is a chance Ireland may not get out of the group...?
The following assumptions apply:

Ireland secure bonus point win against Russia to give us a total of 13 points going into Italy game

Aussies secure BP wins against USA and Russia to give them final pool standing of 15 points

Italy secure BP win against US giving points total of 10 going into match against Ireland.

If then Italy beat Ireland without BP and Ireland fail to secure losing BP then final pool standings would be:

Australia: 15 Points
Italy 14 Points
Ireland 13 Points

21st-September-2011, 12:08
Even if Ireland got the bonus point against Italy we would be out because of the head to head meeting.

Lose to Italy & it's curtains. It won't happen though, the team will not take Italy for granted.

21st-September-2011, 12:09
If they were level on 13 Italy would go through on the first tie break rule aswell, dont think the media will cop this until next week everyone is talking like they are guaranteed to get through.

21st-September-2011, 12:09
nothing has changed....we always had to beat Italy.

Miguel Sanchez
21st-September-2011, 12:14
That's possible ok. We need to win both remaining pool matches, and if we do so we'll top the group.

21st-September-2011, 12:21
All we need to do is win our last 2 games. Which would have been the plan since the pool was drawn. No need to worry about bonus points.

21st-September-2011, 12:25
If they were level on 13 Italy would go through on the first tie break rule aswell, dont think the media will cop this until next week everyone is talking like they are guaranteed to get through.

Far from it. Hasn't Gorgeous George been flagging this match since Adam was a young lad? Admittedly, from a different perspective. :D

21st-September-2011, 12:27
Looking at the squad picked by EOS for the Wallabies game (14 changes from the Russia game), the US have clearly targeted the Italian game as their big one. Italy mightn't have it that easy. That said if we can't win against Italy then no point contemplating quarters and semis against bigger 6N fish.

21st-September-2011, 12:48
Thats a fair point widebody and I would have to agree. But still though it just means there is no room for complacency and I am surprised thee media are not making a bigger deal out of it. As others said above, all are now talking like we are guaranteed qualification when that is patently not the case. All the Australia victory means is that we qualify as group winners or not at all.

21st-September-2011, 14:29
Never over-estimate the intelligence of the media!

21st-September-2011, 14:46
How would the pecking order work out in the HIGHLY unlikely event of a 'free for all' match where Italy beat Ireland by less than 7 points, but both teams scored 4 tries or more?
In that scenario, all 3 teams would be on 15 points....

When 3 teams are tied, it all comes down to points difference over the whole pool.
Therefore, let's rack up 100+ points against Russia please...(just in case)

21st-September-2011, 15:02
That's right. Unlike the HC, for instance, where the Match Points in the games between the tied teams is the first tie breaker.
If the HC rules were used, and all three teams finished level as you have described, Australia would have gotten 5 points v Italy and none v Ireland Total 5, Ireland would have gotten 4 v Australia and two v Italy total 6 and Italy would have gotten 5 v Ireland and none v Australia Total 5.

Bottom Line, Ireland need to reach 16 points to be sure of qualifying. We have eight we therefore need another eight. Two wins, of any description, will do. A five and a three will also do.

the plastic paddy
21st-September-2011, 15:42
If we don't beat Italy we should be coming home anyway; but we will beat them! I really believe the best is yet to come from this excellent squad of 30 and it will start with a real bullying performance on sunday against the poor Russians who will not deserve it playing their third game in 11 days but them's the cards; I have heard Mushy is shaving his hair for the occasion and eating nails for breakfast!?!

27th-September-2011, 21:58
This will be the real test of the squads professionalism. Whatever about the Hoopla after the Australian match, this is the one that it was always going to hang on. Get past the Italians and the sky is the limit.

27th-September-2011, 22:08
We will beat them but I'd be very worried about the type of injuries we could sustain. Either first choice prop down is a serious loss for any game afterwards, if the scrum is a liability then any team from Italy onwards can knock on ad infinitum and have a pretty good chance of getting a penalty.