Now I know that there are oil worries, and that the € v $ has an effect, but Irish banks are absolutely plummeting in the last few months. A look at the ISEQ Financial (http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EIFIN ) and you can see they are off by nearly 40% of their Feb 07 high.
Some of them are on very, very low p/e ratios.
Anyone have any views on why they are plummeting?
“Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.”
House of cards?
It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into.
Every plan I have is the best plan in the room. Everybody get quiet and listen to it, and everybody will win
Maybe Joey - rumours abound that all is not well with some of them, (access to liquidity) but I'm surprised that one of the biggest fallers is AIB, which is supposedly less exposed to property developers little er, misdemeanors.
“Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.”
Share prices reflect growth in activity. Housing starts are down something like 66% so mortgage lending growth has peaked. Are they really on very low p/e's or is it that the p/e's have retracted to more normal levels?
David Wallace, James Coughlan - Heroes, Jonathan Davies
Could be right sewa, but I *think* that normal P/e's for banks are 9 or 10 or thereabouts.
AIB is currently about 7.5, and as I said it is less exposed to mortgage lending, which makes it even more curious.
“Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.”
Originally Posted by fitzy73
they would be more exposed to the american merket though with their interests over there which would account for some of it
also the confidance in the banking sector in general is down with finance firms showing losses from overexposure to the US market and rumours of underestimation of exposure. It all has a knock on affect the sector overall
that along with the slow down in the irish economy and I'm sure several other reasons
The AIBcapital markets employeesthere have been told there is no bonus this year...not that they ever paid the best......as well as their mortgage exposure here you have to factor in loads of other stuff.....they have significant CDO exposure AFAIK....as well as buying up US mortgage books for a good portion of last year and the early part of this....
Stay clear of Anglo too for those of you out there...there is serious rumours about them doing the rounds the past few weeks...
On the other hand,those that listened to me 2 months ago(Old dog) should be cleaning up having shorted all the banks I told them about!!!
Mortgage business represents around 10% of the main Banks' business so a bit of a fall off there shouldn't be too damaging. I think it's more to do with the concern over the sector due to the sub-prime problems in the US. With a number of Banks reporting in the next few weeks,confirmation that they're not exposed to sub-prime could steady the ship. Yields are pretty impressive though. Bank of Ireland on over 6% of 2008 dividend for instance.
suppose some of you might be interested in this:
Banks were weaker in the US overnight and stories that the ratings agencies have received default notice on $5bn of derivatives is supplementing the sense of nervousness. The likely suspension of the US Treasury-supported "Superfund" is also crystallising the sense of concern in investors minds about the substantial uptick in write-offs at banks in the coming months. Nowhere is this more obviously expressed than on credit default swaps which are at least at five year highs on Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. CDS swaps at C have tripled in the past 3 weeks and high spreads on the Irish banks in recent weeks indicates the domestic banks are also not surprisingly caught in the malaise. This process has an uneasy sense of going from bad to worse as the lower debt instrument valuations fall, the more the banks have to mark down and sell off, which of course drives valuations lower - a worrying vicious cycle. On the corporate newsflow front this morning, while ING appears to have come in ahead of consensus, of more relevance is Societe Generale which has missed consensus on further write-downs and also HVB Real Estate, which has also missed consensus. SocGen indicates that it based its write-downs on "a worse case forward-looking scenario" that total industry losses from subprime mortgages will reach $200bn. According to the FT today, only $28bn has been taken to date by large banks. Gulp. This means that presumably there is further to come. We still believe that write-offs will move up a few notches at year end as auditors (fully audited accounts), regulators (ahead of Basel II) and company directors (SOX) all get involved. In the meantime, banks will hoard liquidity into the year end so expect spreads over base to remain elevated through the year end and up until the next results season. Elsewhere on the corporate front and, of more relevance to home, BZW reported Q3 figures this morning - headline figures are up. At the headline level, net income came in at PLN225.7m versus consensus of PLN224m. As such, we are unlikely to be changing our BZW input in our AIB model.
If you compare the US ADR of AIB shares versus a US financials ETF performance then it has roughly tracked that market, and not done worse, although the Euro helps AIB.
Merrill Lynch and Citigroup have lost their CEOs in the last week, after booking some of the largest financial losses in history, each around $8bn AFAIK, and Citigroup's could go to $13bn, from the subprime mess. People are wondering who else could have large write downs coming, and the Irish banks can't be excluded from the list that could have some exposure.
The major Irish banks are exposed to the US and British markets, the US housing market prices have gone down like ours, and the forecast for British housing is gloomy. France and Spain have recorded price decreases recently in housing, so it's not surprising that financials will be hit.
The ECB has been far better than the English Central Bank at dealing with the sub prime fallout, it's far less likely that a Northern Rock situation would be allowed happen in the ECB region, even if their is a few more months in the financials fallout.
It seems to be another example of 'America sneezes and the world catches a cold' The US of A can't keep it's problems to itself, it has to share! The issues with the international credit markets have far reaching consequences.
depending on what grade and salary structure you are on the AIB CM bonus's can be good, especially the profit based bonus's
must see what they've been told from people i know there
one thing AIB does have however is BZWBK, their Polish bank which has been making decent profit the last two years and should keep going up.
They have invested a lot of time and money into it
Hearing that on other boards as well - not being able to access funds?
I think I might take a leaf out of OD's book and start buying those Kruggerrands ..
“Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.”
Invest in Poland boys, It's on the up and up. One of these days they're going to stop coming back and start building up their own country. we taught them how to do it for gods sake.
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) - Irish banks fell as Merrill Lynch & Co.
cut its earnings estimates for the three biggest lenders by as much
as 7 percent, citing the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown
in construction.
Allied Irish Banks Plc, Ireland's largest lender by market
value, fell 2 percent to 15.02 euros as of 2:10 p.m. in Dublin.
Bank of Ireland Plc fell 1.6 percent to 10.85 euros, while Anglo
Irish Bank Plc, the country's third-biggest lender by market value,
fell 4.2 percent to 10.49 euros.
Irish house prices are falling after eight interest-rate
increases by the European Central Bank since late 2005 doubled
borrowing costs. While real estate developers are curbing the pace
of homebuilding, there's also a rising risk that builders won't be
able to repay loans, Merrill said.
``We see several very clear indications that Ireland's housing
market will continue to slow and forecast further falls in home
prices, building and loan growth,'' said Phil Ingram, a London-
based analyst at Merrill. He cut his share price estimate for
Allied Irish to 20.30 euros from 22.90 euros.
“Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.”
with the dollar us shares are pretty cheap too so capital is migrating to some of those also. i work for an insurance company whose shares went up 20 dollars in the last 6 weeks !
I'm no expert in these things but I think the reason the p/e ratio isn't the be and end all in these scenarios is that it is purely historical and does not take into account projected growth/numbers. What you really want to compare is projected P/e ratios or PEG indices to see an apple v apples comparison (or closer to one anyways).
Also this spin being put thru the press that the banks are only say 10% exposed to the mortgage market in Ireland is a bit of balony IMHO. The banks loan to the mortgage holders, the developers, the lease holders and the trader uppers too- so the cumulative effect of say aEUro100m drop in mortgage sales activities might equate to something more like aEuro300m drop in their new business sales really when the developers and other related activities are taken into account. Do people in the know agree with this?? opinions welcome
_________________________________
Irish By Birth, Munster By The Grace of God
Borrow more from the Banks and Buy Bank shares which are cheap at these price. Watch them hit €25 in a years time. Im telling you BUY!!!!
The dollar is weakening because of cashflows going to Europe etc., where rates are flatlinging or rising, and away from the US where they are going down, plus the weak dollar policy. A senior Chinese official has just stated that they will diversify reserves, i.e. sell dollars and buy euros etc..
In valuing a company I would tend to look back two years and forward two years, past performance has been very good, but the markets are clearly factoring in a slowdown in profit growth, and the possibilty of a decrease in profits with current share prices, in which case the dividend yields may not be as attractive, if dividends could be cut.
I will be watching financials very closely over the next few months with a view to investing in them - I haven't been in them for a few months, but I would be looking at them on a value for money basis, but not quite yet, their should be a while longer for bad news stories to hit financial markets, it's more of a long term play.
Irish bank shares are good value at the moment, they'll pick up in the new year, there is a killing to be made.
"If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards - checkmate!" Zapp Brannigan
Not just restricted to Irish banks. . .European banking stocks in general are also down [img]smileys/sad.gif[/img]
Frances Soc Gen recorded a 40% dip in Q3 profits. . other banks are releasing their figures in the coming days and you can expect more of the same [img]smileys/shock.gif[/img]. . infact more of the same into 08 [img]smileys/sad.gif[/img]
i never realised there were so many brainiacs on this site - i feel privileged in your company !
so should i buy a second property now - the rents are high ya ?
I would have - only thatNick Leeson told me that you were a complete spoofer! [img]smileys/sad.gif[/img]
(So I invested in gold bullion instead [img]smileys/cool.gif[/img])
<H1>Anglo Irish Bank quells rumours of funding problems</H1>
<DIV id=articleRelated>
<DIV ="articleTools wrapper">
<H2>
<DIV =bookmarks>
</DIV>By Joe Brennan
Wednesday November 07 2007 </H2></DIV></DIV>
<DIV =>
Anglo Irish Bank has assured analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort, the German investment bank, that it has no liquidity or funding problems.
"Anglo also clearly said that it had not accessed the ECB (European Central Bank) or Bank of England for emergency funding; it is a net inter-bank lender," the broker's analysts Tania Gold and Darren Chappell said following a meeting with management on Monday.
The Irish business has been in a so-called closed period since early September but was forced to contact brokerages over the past week to quell rumours about its funding position.
Investors have been on heightened alert about funding issues in recent months in light of the recent turmoil in the credit markets following the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market.
Buffer
"Anglo is well placed on the liquidity front, with a significant buffer in excess of regulatory requirements in place," the analysts said. "The funding split is positive, with 64pc of funding from customer deposits and over 90pc of 2007 lending funded through customer deposits."
Dresdner expects Anglo to write down between €25m and €30m of its €100m exposure to structured investment vehicles, or SIVs - high-yielding debt impacted in the credit crunch.
The broker said this was already in the group's guidance for its full-year earnings to the end of September to come in at 129c per share. The group is to unveil annual figures at the end of this month, with Dresdner forecasting 130c, adding that it "would not be surprised if it came in above that".
Anglo's net interest margins should remain stable into 2008, Dresdner said, with increased funding costs, in line with those faced by other financial groups, being offset by up to a quarter of a percent increase in margins on new loans to customers.
The broker said "we are now even more convinced that the fundamentals are safe". Shares bounced 1.4pc yesterday to close at €10.94, having lost almost 23pc of their value over the past month.
- Joe Brennan</DIV>
Glad to read that. I was a believer in Anglo's business model.
Believe all you want-they are the riskiest of the Irish banks...AIB surely looking like they are moving into 'BUY' levels.....
We thought things were bad for the Irish banks yesterday, but US banks took another 5% tumble overnight, led by Washington Mutual - down 17% - as New York State Attorney extended his investigation into "widespread" collusion between real estate appraisers and lenders. Freddie Mae and Sallie Mae were also subpoenaed. Also, Capital One collapsed 16% as it raised its credit guidance. While there were doubts expressed about the internal workings of the banks in the WaMu case, it was the turn of Morgan Stanley to stand up to the plate and confess all - well confess to $3.7bn in write-offs in the two months through end October - which will leave a net $2.5bn hit for the quarter (to date). The company CFO indicated that he now expects credit markets to take three to four quarters to recover instead of the one to two he predicted in September - so that would presumably bring us through next summer. The company indicated that these exposures did not come out of client-facing activities, but were a proprietary position they put on. That is an important point to bear in mind about the main differential between investment banks and retail banks around the world. Yes, all banks around the world hold some instruments that will have to see write-offs - and there will be no exceptions - but for some banks, it was a core competence (or incompetence in this case), but for others prop trading positions will be modest. We note that investors were fretting in the last few days about the financial assets sitting on the balance sheets of the main domestic banks - both in the trading portfolio and available for sale. As is clear from banks everywhere, it’s hard to know what is in there (maturity and tenure, vintage etc), but we wonder whether some sense of proportion has been lost in recent days in Irish bank share prices. So while MS for instance is going to take a net $2.5bn hit in Q4 and probably more to come, we note that BNP this morning is reporting write-downs and risk provisions of EUR301m. This comes after EUR375m at Soc Gen yesterday based on its assessment that total industry losses will reach EUR200bn. Even the French banks are major capital market players. Anyway, BNP appears to have come in ahead of consensus with EUR2.03bn net income vs EUR1.79bn forecast for the record in what is probably going to be a down day – again.
AIB Group (Buy, Closing Price EUR14.77); Interview with head of Irish operations.
We note an interview with head of the Irish operations at AIB, Donal Forde, in the Irish Independent this morning. In it, there are indications that mortgage applications are down 25% and that the bank’s mortgage loan book is anticipated to grow at less than half last year’s level (we are forecasting 12% compared to the 26% outturn last year) and overall lending is targeted at 20% (which we have too). On trends in the mortgage market, the bank is indicating a pick-up in business with investors, with indications that investors are about one-third of lending versus one-fifth last year. Given declining house prices this year domestically, we wonder whether either investors are stepping back in or we wonder whether they are looking outside Ireland, or as is usually the case, both. Also, Mr Forde indicated that there is also a trend where developers are mortgaging and renting out homes rather than selling into a depressed market. It is reported that this will be a record year for the domestic business - which will be absolutely no surprise given our estimates and that the customer base has just passed the 1.8m level. On the recent market turmoil, the comments indicate that "while pricing has gone up for all banks, the negative effect on AIB to date has not been very significant". While the higher rates are being passed onto business customers, the higher rates are being absorbed for the time being on the retail side, in the belief that wholesale rates will ease, which wi
I see oh great oracle [img]smileys/lol.gif[/img]
Believe all you want-they are the riskiest of the Irish banks...AIB surely looking like they are moving into 'BUY' levels.....
p.s.
<table ="investors" summary="This table displays details of Anglo Irish Bank's Credit Rating" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><t><tr><th></th>
<th id="er1">FITCH</th>
<th id="er2">MOODY's</th>
<th id="er3">DBRS</th>
<th id="er3">STANDARD
& POOR'S</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Senior Debt</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Short Term Senior</td>
<td ers="er1">F1</td>
<td ers="er2">P-1 </td>
<td ers="er3">R-1 (M)</td>
<td ers="er4">A-1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long Term Senior</td>
<td ers="er1">A+</td>
<td ers="er2">A1</td>
<td ers="er3">A (High)</td>
<td ers="er4">A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Long Term Rating Outlook</td>
<td ers="er1">Stable</td>
<td ers="er2">Stable</td>
<td ers="er3">Stable</td>
<td ers="er4">Stable</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Subordinated Debt</td>
<td ers="er1">A-</td>
<td ers="er2">A2</td>
<td ers="er3">A</td>
<td ers="er4">A-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Perpetual Capital securities</td>
<td ers="er1">A-</td>
<td ers="er2">A3</td>
<td ers="er3">A (Low)</td>
<td ers="er4">BBB+</td></tr></t></table>
Burn [img]smileys/lol.gif[/img]
I see oh great oracle [img]smileys/lol.gif[/img]
Believe all you want-they are the riskiest of the Irish banks...AIB surely looking like they are moving into 'BUY' levels.....
p.s.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 summary="This table displays details of Anglo Irish Bank's Credit Rating" ="investors"><T>
<T>
<TR>
<TH></TH>
<TH id=er1>FITCH</TH>
<TH id=er2>MOODY's</TH>
<TH id=er3>DBRS</TH>
<TH id=er3>STANDARD
& POOR'S</TH></TR>
<TR>
<TD>Senior Debt</TD>
<TD></TD>
<TD></TD>
<TD></TD>
<TD></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>Short Term Senior</TD>
<TD ers="er1">F1</TD>
<TD ers="er2">P-1 </TD>
<TD ers="er3">R-1 (M)</TD>
<TD ers="er4">A-1</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>Long Term Senior</TD>
<TD ers="er1">A+</TD>
<TD ers="er2">A1</TD>
<TD ers="er3">A (High)</TD>
<TD ers="er4">A</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>Long Term Rating Outlook</TD>
<TD ers="er1">Stable</TD>
<TD ers="er2">Stable</TD>
<TD ers="er3">Stable</TD>
<TD ers="er4">Stable</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>Subordinated Debt</TD>
<TD ers="er1">A-</TD>
<TD ers="er2">A2</TD>
<TD ers="er3">A</TD>
<TD ers="er4">A-</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>Perpetual Capital securities</TD>
<TD ers="er1">A-</TD>
<TD ers="er2">A3</TD>
<TD ers="er3">A (Low)</TD>
<TD ers="er4">BBB+</TD></TR></T></T></TABLE>
If you give any creedance to anything the rating agencys have currently published your a fool.....they have assigned AAA ratings (yes,higher than what your bank above can issue) to billions of the stuff currently worth very litle cents in the dollar....yes,CDO squards should have the same rating as US govenment debt....they really have a clue about what they are doing.......
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