Well, Michele Bachmann has gone already with her paltry 5% showing, so now there are five Republicans left. Obama will face one of them in November, at this stage Romney looks probable (just), although there is plenty of fight left in Gingrich.
From this distance out, I feel Obama will get re-elected. If he wins all the states that John Kerry took in 2004, and retains Florida, he's there.
But a long way to go.
Last edited by blackwarrior; 4th-January-2012 at 23:04.
"Playing against ROG, your big game plan is to try and pressure him but he’d dump it off to Wally and next thing you’re five metres behind the gain line because he was an absolute freak." Rory Best, Irish Examiner, May 2012
Just sit back and watch the Republicans implode over the next few months before they finally select a damaged candidate.
The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves
Jebus and we thought we were scraping the bottom of the barrell with our 7 candidates
"Everything good about Ireland can be found in County Cork"....Lonely Planet Guide 2012
I wonder if we'll see an independent Republican emerge? Lots of pluses running on a separate ticket - provided you have the dosh.
Of course, that could further split the conservative vote.
Anyone else a tad disappointed with Obamas first term?
“Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.”
Already bored with this tbh. It's going to be a long road to November......
4 Feb 2011 - Gilmore on the General Election
"Frankfurts way or Labours way."
28 Feb 2012 - Gilmore on a yes vote for the fiscal treaty
"A vote for economic stability and a vote for economic recovery."
Originally Posted by fitzy73
I was very disappointed by Obama's first term, but that said, they say a US president only gets anything important done in his first year, and he did get healthcare reform, economic/job stimulus, and if he had managed to pull off an increase in taxes for the mega rich I would be calling it a successful presidency. You think the US is a mess now, imagine what it would be like if the Republicans had gotten someone in office during this financial crisis.
Fact is, his administration has be hamstrung by a republican congress, who are basically trying to make the situation as bad as reasonably possible in the face of an upcoming election, or lining their own pockets with corporate cash-for-laws because they know they are finished next time around. But unfortunately for them its going to backfire, they are counting on the public blaming the guy at the top, but too many Americans realize that its not the guy at the top that's doing the damage, hence why the approval rating of congress is at a historic low of 5%. Nuts.
This single biggest issue the Yanks need to resolve is "corporations are people" and the swarm of lobbists influencing the law making process (pizza as a vegetable anyone?!). If they can get around that they will have a system that works again.
On the plus side, I was delighted with the result in Iowa, the thought of millions of Republicans googling the word "Santorum" made me smile.
Victi vincimus (Conquered, we conquer) - Plautus
Obama was always going to have his hands tied in his first term, its all about what you inherit and worrying about getting re-elected. Its the second term when he doesnt have to worry about re-election that he can put his own slant on the presidency.
But on top of all that the president is only a puppet, he is not the one in complete control.
"Everything good about Ireland can be found in County Cork"....Lonely Planet Guide 2012
Obama will walk in. The Rep candidates are brutal. It never ceases to amaze me how much of an influence a person's religion has on them getting elected in the US for a supposedly "secularist" nation.
When things go wrong, blame McGahan
I think it will be a very tight election, with Romney winning.
Where is CL (for the balanced view) ?
I think Ron Paul may push Romney yet (only based on the fact he is attracting a lot of younger rep voters according to Iowa returns) - also his opinions seem a lot more reasonable than the others (Newt - "lets haul a judge in to congress to explain his verdict" is quite frankly bizarre)
(But I think Obama will still get the second term)
Last edited by SkullinPints; 5th-January-2012 at 12:03. Reason: forgot to add...
"I've got lots of potatos that need peeling and manure that needs shovelling" -M. Burns
You don't seriously think Ron Paul has more reasonable opinions than Romney, do you!?
Jeb Bush and Chris Christie may join the race yet, they are just watching the children of the t-party revolution eat each other.
The Republicans need a centre ground candidate to beat Obama, Romney is not that candidate.
Both have ruled themselves out as far as I know.
The thing about Paul is that he will probably even get some Dem votes. If wouldn't be surprised if he ran as an independent republican specifically steal some of the more right wing dem votes and tip the election in the favor of Romney. Either way the election will be close, republicans will vote republican regardless.
Victi vincimus (Conquered, we conquer) - Plautus
http://www.bearishnews.com/
Napolitano is worth a watch or listen here
I believe that all government is evil, and that trying to improve it is largely a waste of time.
HL Mencken
you think if paul runs as third party he will take more dem votes than gop? Seriously?????
...in what way will you feel more Irish if you force me to give up my feeling of being British? - David Ervine
There are a lot of swing voters, and the right edge of the dem base that would prefer not to vote for Obama because of many issues Obama has ignored that Paul is promising to fix, in contradiction to many of the republican party lines. Winding down of the American military, opposes the patriot act, endorsed the change to "don't ask don't tell", opposes the war on drugs, and wants to end the influence of the money of interest groups on the hill etc.
When the republican party nominate a candidate, they vote for him, blindly. No matter what their affiliations in the nomination process, they have their man and that man is going to be Romney. But some of his policies will take a lot of swing voters and some democratic voters that were swing voters the last time around.
Victi vincimus (Conquered, we conquer) - Plautus
Did I miss the meeting where speaking French is somehow worse than being a paedophile?
The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves
That is brilliant.
They go with the French angle because 1. It associates him with John Kerry (Even Democrats fear being associated or compared with him) and 2. A lot of Americans still see the French as being namby pamby 'cheese eating surrender monkeys' and representative of femininity. Americans like their leaders with Cajones or at least imagined Cajones. If Rick Perry could string coherent sentences together he'd have gotten the nod I reckon.
Superintendent Chalmers: “Thank the Lord”? That sounded like a prayer. A prayer in a public school. God has no place within these walls, just like facts don’t have a place within an organized religion
Romney well beaten in South Carolina. Newt takes it and easily.
CNN reckon Bush family are going to endorse Romney as Gingrich is persona-non-grata with the Bush clan.
“People are broad-minded. They'll accept the fact that a person can be an alcoholic, a dope fiend, a wife beater and even a newspaperman, but if a man doesn't drive, there's something wrong with him.” - Art Buchwald
What do Fox think?
Their coverage is more likely to be balanced and probably fair.
The GOP nomination is only going to get dirtier and reckon they will do the democrats job for them.
Fox - fair and balanced?
You're taking the piss, right?
"If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards - checkmate!" Zapp Brannigan
Of course he's taking the piss! Its a sarcastic jibe at Fox's tag line 'Fair and Balanced reporting' (you are taking the piss bazzyg, right?)
Anyways, i'm on the UPC system here bazzyg, so we don't get Fox and i wasn't bothered looking them up online.
“People are broad-minded. They'll accept the fact that a person can be an alcoholic, a dope fiend, a wife beater and even a newspaperman, but if a man doesn't drive, there's something wrong with him.” - Art Buchwald
And Romney chuggs onward .....
Back in 2008, I used to read www.fivethirtyeight.com almost every day. It was a site run by Nate Silver, a pollster with a background in baseball stats. He analysed everybody else's polls and added in his own methodology to produce top class commentary and predictions.
Sadly, he seems to have sold out, and his work now appears in a New York Times blog. Still, it's a good read most days, especially once the "real" election begins in September. But I'd love to know how to find his graphs ...
Read it here ... http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
"Playing against ROG, your big game plan is to try and pressure him but he’d dump it off to Wally and next thing you’re five metres behind the gain line because he was an absolute freak." Rory Best, Irish Examiner, May 2012
They have great names in all fairness.
Mitt.
Newt.
Barack.
Rick (x2).
Santorum is a ripping surname too.
Romney will be destroyed by Obama. The man flip flops on issues depending on where the political wind is blowing.
and Obama makes a decisive decision all the time?
will be a lot closer than most think, economy is in the ****es still.
Earth to SkullinPints! Earth to SkullinPints!
Ron Paul more reasonable?
Would that be Ron Paul the Creationist, Conspiracy Theorist and Racist?
well looka
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