Donot know why Piquet would be suspicious of that winner. Id say they were sickened, they clearly didnt have a penny on him!
Donot know why Piquet would be suspicious of that winner. Id say they were sickened, they clearly didnt have a penny on him!
Originally Posted by bobbin
Something must have brought him in from 200/1 to 33s.
“We’re in this mess, not because Fianna Fail policies have failed, but because they have succeeded.” They haven't gone away, you know"
240/1 on the exchanges I think. And lets face it, that is where you go and play on long shots. That said, there have been a number of Mafia horses that have been the outsider this 'summer' that have been backed at long odds and upset the Coolmore fav. Think in this instance it is honest myself.
The fact that he was only a reserve in the race initially and got in after withdrawalals would have had something to do with that I'd say!!
Plenty hookie stuff going on in racing but doubt this was one of em.
Watched this race, very competitive and a great finish, however Cnoc was never better than second last from the off.
Classic example of a jockey doing exactly what he was told and not using his initiative, the horse is really a two and a half miler so when they went an absolute crawl, Davy Condon should have said feck this I am going to put some pace into the race. The race turned into a sprint and Cnoc na sioga got tapped for toe. I will stick with him as he has got the talent and will go in at a big price one day.
Saw the race as well and kept an eye on this lad after you tipped him. Couldnt have picked the horse out if I was looking at the race for a week I must say but would agree, thought there was more in him on the day.
Some thoughts from our friend in Oz...
Caulfield – Race 7 – 1800m - Underwood Stakes: Manigher, Sincero, Ocean Park and Southern Speed. Manighar favourite and has the beating of Southern Speed. Sincero good but not as good as Manighar I think. Ocean Park is the one I like from NZ. At the prices him at 6.5 better value than 2.5 of Manighar. Win and place bet to cover myself.
Randwick – Race 6 – 1600m – George Main Stakes: My old buddy Secret Admirer fav at 4.00. I think Shoot Out and Danleigh have his measure at 5.00 with Danleigh getting my vote for a small bet. All Too Hard back on track at 6.00. Not for me though……….again!
Randiwck – Race 4 – 1600m – A few favs from last year in Dear Demi, Flying Snitzel, Jade Marouder, Meidung. Dear Demi for me. Fav at 3.00. Has her earlier season form well franked since.
Randwick – Race 5 – 1400m – Herculian Prince back for Gai. Torio’s Quest fav at 3.5. Should have the turn of foot to win but no bet!
Randwick – Race 7 – 2000m – Mourayan one time class horse of John Oxx's unlucky to be same year as Sea The Stars and Fame and Glory is at 7.0. Lamasery favourite at 3.1. 3rd up should be ready and big bet for me. Little place saver on Mourayan too.
Randwick – Race 8 – 1200m – Nobby Snip at 7.00 for me for a small place bet.
Caulfield – Race 6 – 1400m – 1000 Guineas Trial – Commanding Jewel at 3.1. Very short for me. Looks a class filly but competitive field. Molto Bene for a small place bet for me!
Caulfield – Race 8 – 2000m – Seville one's a second in Irish Derby to Treasure Beach is at 41, Fruehling for my old Ballymacoll buddies is at 5.50. He’s a reserve. If he gets in I’ll be all over him. Winner gets entry into Caulfield Cup.
Caulfield – Race 9 – 1200m – Impossible race to get involved with. Some classy fillies. Mosheen a heroine but too much weight again at 7. Hurtle Myrtle back at 7.5. Detours at 16/1 is the only one I think is over priced.
I wouldn't be sure of anything dodgy in that Kerry National. When the ground is as it is at tracks like Listowel anything can happen. Then again I wouldn't be sure there wasn't anything dodgy either as there's always a little question when a reserve gets into a race and manages to win. Not that I am sitting on the fence of course.
I tell you what is dodgy, backing 22/1 shot racecourse debutants each way in 11 runner bumpers, the horse finishing second and the f*cking bookies being able to fleece 40 p in the pound off you for a rule 4. The satisfaction of picking out the horse is mitigated by the daylight fecking robbery. Anyway, have had a good listowel just terrible whenever I post my selections on here.
Ha ha. He paid 90/1 on the tote. They didn't have a penny on him. Had zero luck myself this week. Should have known better. Hate backing when the ground is like that. Listowel is a great festival but it's tearing the arse out of it having 7 days. Was quiet there sun/mon/ tue I believeI wouldn't be sure of anything dodgy in that Kerry National. When the ground is as it is at tracks like Listowel anything can happen. Then again I wouldn't be sure there wasn't anything dodgy either as there's always a little question when a reserve gets into a race and manages to win. Not that I am sitting on the fence of course.
A very interesting day of racing but also an extremely difficult one to find the winners, especially at Ayr for their Gold Cup meeting with large fields and heavy going. Anyway these are my interests.
Newbury:
14:05: Group 3: Cameron Highland well fancied in this but I'd give a wee chance to Coquet
14:35: Group 2: I am sticking with Cougar Ridge after his unlucky run last time. I suggest he is far better than he was able to show in that race having not been able to get a run.
15:10: Handicap: I am just going to chance Mister Music
15:45: Group 3: I am sticking with Angels Will Fall.
Ayr:
14:20: Silver Cup Handicap: Going for An Saighdiur who is in great form and should like this ground.
14:50: Group 3: Melody Of Love
15:30: Gold Cup Handicap: Impossible race but I am going to take another chance with The Cheka(He has to pop up one of these days) and also have a small EW interest on Brae Hill.
What he paid on the Tote and indeed the SP means f-ck all in terms of whether they had money on or not. They are hardly likely to pile into pool betting and there's other ways of getting money on which won't affect the SP, exchanges for one thing but also the old fashioned SP coup. Not sure if you heard of the coup back in 2004 on Boccaccio at Leopardstown. I backed him myself that day although I wasn't aware of the coup. They got over 1 million pounds out from SP betting and not a bet was laid on track to affect the starting price.
I am saying whether they got any bets on this Faltering Fullback or not. Frankly I couldn't give a shíte but as is shown you can get significant money on without affecting the on-course market.
Absolutely brilliant day of racing with Newmarket hosting 2 Group 1's, a Group 2 and the Cambridgeshire while at Market Rasen there's a couple of very good jumping contests and then in New York there is some scandalously good stuff with 5 Grade 1 and a Grade 2 at Belmont Park.
Newmarket:
1:55: Royal Lodge(Group 2): I loved Fantastic Moon in his last race and I see no reason to go against him here.
2:25: Chevley Park(Group 1): Hard to pick between the top three in the market but I am coming down on the side of Maureen
3:00: Sun Chariot(Group 1): I cannot even look beyond the former French, now Henry Cecil, trained Beauty Parlour.
3:40: Camridgeshire: Utterly impossible 35 runner handicap but always a great race to watch. Two outsiders I'll give a bit of an each way look to are Edmaaj and Postscript
Market Rasen:
2:10: Hurdle: Very competitive and you could select 5 or 6 and still not get the winner but I am chancing Kians Delight
2:40: Chase: Good race in prospect but lots of horses returning from breaks makes it hard to nail down a selection. However I am having a look at Quite The Man
Belmont Park:
7:58: Beldame(Grade 1): Sticking with one of my favourite wee US fillies, It's Tricky.
8:30: Kelso(Grade 2): This could easily be a Grade 1 such is the quality of the field. I am taking last year's Preakness winner Shackleford to nail this now returned to more suitable mile after a ridiculous attempt over 6f recently.
9:04: Vosburgh(Grade 1): Sean Avery.
9:38: Flower Bowl(Grade 1): 10f race for fillies on turf and recent Beverly D winner I'm A Dreamer is back for more and again Hayley Turner is on board. However this time I think she will face a sterner challenge from the Ex-French filly Zagora who I would take to win this.
10:12: Turf Classic(Grade 1): 12f race on turf and yet again Treasure Beach turns up. However he will almost certainly be left toiling in this. The odds on favourite here will be Point Of Entry who won the Man O' War and the Sword Invitational on his most recent starts, both Grade 1 races, in convincing fashion. Treasure Beach was 5th in the Man O' War over 10l behind the winner. Little Mike is the one that interests me here and he is a 2 time Grade 1 winner himself who recently won the Arlington Million. The extra 2f is the question as 10f is the furthest he has ever gone. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win it though and if his price drifts on the PM he is a definite play.
10:46: TVG Jockey Club Gold Cup(Grade 1): The big race of the night with just under £400k($572k) to the winner. This one is over 10f on the dirt. Ron The Greek is likely to go off favourite in this and it should be close between him and Fort Larned as the latter just won LTO by 1.25l when getting 3lbs but it is level weights today. However I am having a sneaky little look at last year's Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice. This lad is going to be a massive price and to be fair that is because he has not been in great form. However the return to this track for the first time since that victory will see a big improvement for him I think. Belmont is a bit of a unique track because of the surface so I put a fair bit of stock into course form here and only he and Flat Out have won here. Of course Flat Out won this last year and recently finished just a head behind Ron The Greek at Saratoga so he is certainly the more obvious one.
I'm back! Arc weekend this weekend lads. One of the best weekends of the year. Unfortunately we have lost both Nathaniel and most importantly Danedream from the line-up which is a huge shame. Currently Camelot (with Dettori on board) and Orfevre are joint favourites at 3/1. Any opinions on the race? Benny have you been following the French races this year? I've been following Irish/UK but it's impossible to catch French racing here. Sea Moon at 8s is catching my eye. Sole Power is currently favourite for the Abbaye too. Would love to see him win but it's extremely tough race to win and you need all the luck you can get. Massive days racing in Sydney ehre too with plenty of Group races. I'll be posting my selections on Friday for anyone who's interested
What a day for Jim Bolger's Redmonstown Stud too.
Just seen Dawn Approach's full sister made 775k and Parish Hall's half sister 300k.
400k for a Sea The Stars colt out of Maoineach aswell. Busy day at Goffs!
Big day at Randwick tomorrow to wet the appetite for Arc weekend!
Race 4 - 2000m - I try to avoid favourites but just can't get away from Mourayan here (ex Oxx). Currently 2.8 and I think that is still value. Beaten by Lamasery here a few weeks ago and I think Lamasery is a top top notch horse. Runs to the same level ehre today he should win. The danger is Class is Class (ex Stoute) who has a year's less Aussie experience and should improve from his 5th in the same Lamasery race. Personally I think he won't improve enough to beat the fav. Next is Western Symbol for the Gai Sydney bandwagon. Ran stinker first up this season but has decent form from last year. Won't catch the top 2 though
Race 5 - 2000m - Proisir is very short priced favourite at 1.4 after beating a couple of good Godolphin horses. Being a Gai Waterhouse horse running in Sydney it's a brave man to take her on at that price.............however............I'll be having a few dollars on the second favourite (somewhat ironically) called It's a Dundeel. Won well on debut at Randwick and at 4/1 is a bit of value I think. Forgot the rest
Race 6 - 1600m - A few old fav's of mine here in Dear Demi and Jade Marouder. Most of these met here 2 weeks ago with Norzita in second 1.5L ahead of Jade Marouder who was 0.5L ahead of Dear Demi. Urban Groove is well backed 3.8 fav for Gai again. I know nothing about her bar she's looked well winning 2 trial races. Since I know nothing about her I'll be swerving at those prices. Which brings us to the next 3. I can't see Jade Marouder improving to win this and think Norzita over performed here 2 weeks ago. However Dear Demi severely under performed (hurting my wallet at 6/4 beaten fav!) I still think she's the class in the race and I'll be forgiving her one last time tomorrow at 3.5
Race 7 - 1600m - Big field handicap including more Randwick specialists from the last 12 months! Shoot Out (5.5), Rangirangdoo (8.5), Secret Admirer (9.0), Ambidexter (6.5) and Fat Al (4.4). Shoot Out beat Rangirangdoo and Secret Admirer last time. I'm a big fan but think he just has too much weight to carry around this time. At the weights I'd have this between Fat Al and Ambidexter. Both very evenly matched in my mind. Have both beaten each other by narrow distances this year but at the prices I'm leaning towards a win and palce bet on Ambidexter. Yosei at fancy odds (17) will be getting a place bet from me too. Should be a cracking race
Race 8 - 2400m - Fav here in Glencadam Gold (ex-Henry Cecil) for Gai (very well backed 3.4). Impressive first up this year. What he actually beat I'd be sceptical about. Second fav is my mate Lamasery at 4.2. He is carrying more weight than the fav but justifiably so in my mind. I've talked about his race beating Mourayan earlier and that's the best form line race of the year for me. I'd expect both to come out and win today and will be doing a cheeky double on top of my 2 singles. Stout Hearted gets a cool 2.5kg from Lamasery to turn around 1.5L off level weights last time and I'd have him as the danger. Fictional Account (ex Moyglare/Weld) is a massive 25/1 and will be getting a few cents place bet from me here too. Ran a good second behind ex-UK trained Buxted and I'd expect improvement. Not good enough to win but value for a sneaky place chance
There's good racing in Flemington too but I haven't done as much research on it so I don't want to post my views! (Bel Sprinter v Spirit of Boom should be a belter) If you've any queries on the races there or anywhere else in Oz over weekend (looking at you Benny!!) just drop me a PM or ask me here
Anyone looking for decent form guides for Australian racing can find them on http://racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/ I find it very useful. It's exactly what you'll get in the racecard that day
From memory the Sheikh was none too happy with Frankie when he rode Scorpion for the sworn enemy in the Leger, perhaps this booking of him for Camelot in the Arc shows the ongoing thawing of the relationships, AOB did bring some runners to Dubai last year.
Stallions are so intertwined it is impossible for humans to unlock their matings/offspring down the line.
Bolger has done well but cant help thinking how his fortunes rose after he went into the box at Mahon and spoofed for Lawlor on horsey financials transactions, treating questions with contempt and evasiveness.
Can it be a coincidence his access to Coolmore greatly grew after his appearance at Mahon.
Camelot has a far better chance with Frankie up. J O'Brien has done well on some rides and crap on others for the stable.
When their numbers dwindled from 50 to 8, the other dwarves began to suspect Hungry
Just discovered the Arc is on none of the terrestrial channels.
“We’re in this mess, not because Fianna Fail policies have failed, but because they have succeeded.” They haven't gone away, you know"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...8AhrHkE#t=183s
Frankie had Camelot in a good posi all the way, put him into the race but I feel the ground was against Camelot today, the !st and 2nd finished well ahead of the peleton.
AOB reported Camelot came back without hind shoes and cut up. Also confirmed Camelot is the best he has trained. Might be a bit of PR in that statement but hope Camelot stays in training next year.
From the DT, sums it up nicely, forgetable race - move on
"Meanwhile, analysis in the aftermath of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe underlines just how crucial a decent racing surface is to providing a fair contest. You suspect that many horses have not run their races, mainly because of the going. Solemia’s time was 13.19 seconds slower than Danedream recorded 12 months earlier.
In retrospect, last year’s great German winner (who followed up with a gutsy win in the King George at Ascon in July) might well have been spared an ordeal by missing the race in bizarre circustances after an oiutbreak of a rare infectious blood disease near her stables prevented her from travelling. It is almost certain that she would have found ground conditions impossible".
The whole flat racing year has been a bit of a right off, apart from Frankel, because it has never stopped raining. I actually think it is very unfair to be too harsh on this years three year olds because the prevailing conditions have made it fecking hard to get any horses fit.
Well I thought the Japanese horse Orfevre was going to walk away with the Arc but he just seemed to curl up in the last 50 metres or so. I had a sizable bet on him and was certain 300 metres out I was going to collect. Very disappointing when he faded.
Cirrus Des Aigles was massively impressive on the Saturday streaking clear of a decentish field without being really asked any difficult question. He is certainly going to face a sterner examination this weekend!!!
I was delighted with Wizz Kid who I backed in the Abbaye.
Also Ridisiyna was excellent in the Prix De L'Opera and I was pretty happy with myself backing her at 12/1.
No bet in the Prix De La Foret but I was delighted to see the Irish horse Gordon Lord Byron grabbing the victory.
In the Prix Jean-Luc Legardere I thought Olympic Glory was very impressive as well. He will be well fancied for next year's 2000 Guineas I would say.
While I wouldn't disagree that the ground had a negative effect I think it is too easy to reel out as an excuse when the supposed fancied horses don't win.....or rather the horses which the racing writers want to see winning don't do so. OIf course I have used such excuses myself in the past to discredit a race when my favourite horse doesn't win so I have some sympathy with their position.
I think the issue in Britain this year, and France as well is that the three year olds have been of a shockingly poor standard. Camelot was the best of them and he has many questions now to answer. As it stands, if he doesn't beat something decent next year in a couple of Group 1 races he is going into my ratings as an average, at best, Derby winner, no matter how visually impressive he was. Right now I'd rate him about the same as Motivator. Decent but not top class. A pity as I was excited about this horse. Hopefully he can come back next year and maybe turn into more of a Sakhee than North Light.
Last edited by Benny; 17th-October-2012 at 17:44.
While I agree with you, Benny, that the three year olds seem to have been of a terrible standard I still stand by my feeling that the weather this year has made the training of horses incredibly difficult. The thing that backs up my theory, to a certain extent, is that all the three year olds, colts, fillies, over every distance have been extraordinarily bad. It obviously matters less in these times of heated boxes etc but it should not be underestimated the effect that shocking weather can have on a horses growth rate. I hope Camelot gets over his colic and trains on properly next year, a proper spring and summer would certainly help!!!
My apologies mo chara. I didn't mean to sound like I disregarded what you said about the weather this year. I absolutely agree with you on this point. It had to have an affect.......That said Frankel was better this year than last and I think Danedream and Snow Fairy also showed they were better and Nathaniel was at least as good.
I've been really looking the the US and Canada a lot this year and I predict it could be a tough year for the Europeans in the Breeders Cup. Even in the traditional strong points of the Mile and Turf they will face a tough challenge.
That said though Joshua Tree and Lanfranco showed 'em the way the other night in Toronto in the Group 1 Canadian International with O'Brien's Imperial Monarch again showing up the 3YO brigade as poor. Indeed I couldn't believe the 8/1 I got on Joshua Tree at British prices. He was only 4/1 on track at Woodbine with AOB's one at 2/1 on both markets ridiculously. Taking on 3YO against the elders has been the way to go this year.
Anyway you must be getting a bit excited now with the National Hunt season proper not too far off. I am looking forward to it too but still looking forward to the end of season biggies in Europe, North America, Hong Kong, Japan and all the good stuff still to come in Australia.
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