Horse Racing Thread

[Benny]

Ortensia hurt herself, struck into around the sesamoid joint I believe.

Yes. I didn't notice anything during the race although should have known even if it was a case of going to the well too often she wouldn't have faded like that. Buick must have known something was up to ease her like that.

In fairness to Society Rock he is pretty bloody good and wasn't winning out of turn for the second time at the top level. He also has plenty of placed runs in Group 1 contests. Funnily his prize money today is about 8k less than his win in his third ever race as a 2Y0, The 250k Tattersalls Timeform Millions Sprint. Feck those sales races are worth some money. He'd be a great horse to own.

[Benny]

Anyway on we go and more Group and Listed action on Sunday including the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh

York:
14:55: Garrowby Stakes(Listed): Mince will be well fancied here but I'm taking a wee chance on Blanche Dubawi


Longchamp:
13:00 Prix La Rochette(Group 3): Guajaraz

13:30:Prix De Lutèce(Group 3): Only A Pleasure

14:40: Prix Du Pin(Group 3): Abu Sidra


Curragh:
14:45: Round Tower Stakes(Group 3): George Vancouver will be well fancied to win here after his very good second in the Group 1 Prix Morny to the unbeaten Reckless Abandon. He could start evens or even odds on. One of interest at a more attractive price is the once raced Cougar Ridge who was very impressive when winning his maiden at Leopardstown.

15:20: Solonaway Stakes(Group 3): Now we have Famous Name going for his 20th career win. I think this will a good bit harder than his last three victories and he does have to turn around the form with Penitent from Sandown earlier this year. That race was run on heavy though which suited Penitent much better. Aidan O'Brien has a very interesting one here who could be anything. He crushed the opposition in his second and last race as a 2Y0 last year in France when trained by Jean Claude Rouget so is having his first run for APOB today. It is a big ask though even getting 10lbs after such a lay-off. He'll have to be pretty class to win this now. The other danger would be Lady Wingshot who won her last 2 races very nicely but she is up against it here against the boys. One to watch really and I hope Famous Name grabs the win and I think he will.

15:50: Blandford Stakes(Group 2): Very good fillies race here. Nahrain has the class but just hasn't done it this year to trust her. I think Caponata has a good chance despite being run down in her last race over 1f shorter. However I'd be looking to take a wee chance with Chrysanthemum to come back to her early seson form which included a win over course and distance.

16:25: Moyglare Stud Stakes(Group 1): Some nice 2Y0 fillies turning up here including Sendmylovetorose who won the Group 2 Cherry Hinton at Newmarket. She has an obvious chance but I am going to chance My Special J's to uphold the form with the likely favourite Harasiya from her win in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes 4 weeks ago. I think she will be better suited by this better ground today. At 6/1 she is much more appealing than Harasiya. Oxx's other one, Karamaya, could be of interest at longer prices.

[Benny]

Well for feck sake Cougar Ridge was the best horse in the race but couldn't get out in time and lost by a neck.

Delighted for Famous Name getting his 20th win. Incredible achievement even when taking into account some of those races contained poor enough quality. I didn't think he travelled as well as he normally does but he found enough to scoot clear and win. O'Brien's one ran reasonably and looks sure to improve. Wouldn't be surprised to see him grab a Group 3 or Listed race later in the year. I assume they will keep him in training next year if he does bag a race.

Caponata should have won but lost on the line again, this time to Up.

The Moyglare turned out to be a disappointment with Sky Lantern, already beaten twice this year, winning for Richard Hannon / Richard Hughes. The Irish 2Y0 fillies are not up to much it seems.

[the plastic paddy]

Seocnd day of the Doncaster leger meeting today and the quality rises markedly after the first. A day for the fillies today with the Park Hill (the fillies leger) the highlight.

In the 1.50 the group three sceptre stakes I am having a bit of ew interest in Coolnagree and in the Park Hill, 2.55, I am siding with the Queen's Royal Ascot winner Estimate to reverse Goodwood placings with Wild Coco on this galloping track with a good deal more give in the ground.

Looking forward to the Laytown races as well although I will be enjoying the spectacle rather than playing.

[Stanley]

Have done 1.50 Sentaril, 2.20 My Boy Bill, 2.55 Wild CoCo.

[Stanley]

By How Far Will Camelot Win The St Leger ?

(Bet until : 14 Sep 12 17:30) William Hill

Selection	Price
To Win By 4 lengths Or More	7/4
To Win By Under 4 lengths	7/4

He is 4/11 to win.


Any opinions on the distance bets, ground is expected to be good/firm

[the plastic paddy]

I don't think he will win by miles because they might be looking to keep something back for the arc. They seem to be after making history with this horse and not even Nijinsky won the triple crown and the arc. I think Camelot will win and I hope he does because triple crown winners don't come along very often.

[Stanley]

LADBROKES ST LEGER STAKES (Gr1)
Doncaster, Turf, 2937m
15 September 2012

Charles Engelhard’s epitaph simply read “Here lie the remains of the owner of a Triple Crown winner”. Not “feted businessman”, not “gems billionaire”, nor anything else, just “owner of a Triple Crown winner”. For all his achievements in the world of business and philanthropy, Engelhard is best remembered for his association with the 1970 English Triple Crown hero, Nijinsky, and to illustrate how rare the feat is, Nijinsky’s Triple Crown came 35 years after the previous ace, the Aga Khan’s Bahram who achieved the feat in 1935.




Posted this before, it is worth remembering Engelhard was a largely self-made metals Saffer billionaire and died a couple of years after 1970 aged 54 which makes his epitaph all the more remarkable, somehow seems classy, a bottle of Stellenbosch would have been very enjoyable in his company - eh.

[the plastic paddy]

The thing that marks out the English triple crown is that from a breeding perspective there is an argument that it is not a good thing for a horse to be able to win at 141/2 furlongs, BS as far as I am concerned but it seems to be the attitude of the breeding industry. I would love to see Camelot win on saturday and will be really disappointed if he doesn't, sportsmanship deserves its reward and I think, credit where it is due, the mafia have been very sporting to have a go with this horse. Gwan Camelot!!!!

[Bitter As A Lemon]

I think Paddy is bang on, it will be under 4 lengths victory.
If he wins here, and goes for the Arc, it will be a tremendous year for Horse Racing and Media coverage.
The hype around Black Caviar & Frankels unbeaten streak was tremendous, with Frankel getting Front page coverage.

The Camelot story would be the icing on the cake.

[Benny]

Well today is the big day. Camelot will try to do something which has not been done since 1970 and complete the triple crown and Aidan O'Brien will attempt to complete the haul of all 5 classics in the same year. Also Leger day in Ireland and we have the National Stakes too. All in all it is a very exciting day. These are my thougts.


Chester:
14:10 Handiap: Taking a little chance with Uppercut
14:40 Listed: Area Fifty One


Doncaster:
14:25 Champagne Stakes(Group 2): I can't look beyond Dundonnell as he was very impressive LTO but Toronado could give him something to think about.
15:00 Portland Handicap: I love this 5.5f sprint race but it is as usual very hard to pick out the winner. I am just going to take a chance on Steps.
15:40 St Leger(Group 1): The race we have been waiting for to see Camelot crowned as an all time legend. Unless something crazy happens he should not be in any danger as he has a class advantage over these. Even if he doesn't stay he should still win. I see no evidence he can't stay anyway. Thought Worthy may uphold the York form with Main Sequence as he looks to be more suited by this trip but I wouldn't rule out Encke from getting ahead of them as he is bred for this trip. Also Ursa Major should be in the shake-up for the places.
16:15: Park Stakes(Group 2): Strong Suit's best chance of the year so far to grab a victory but it has to be a worry that he has not been running well. I'd prefer to take a little chance on Pastoral Player.


Curragh:
15:30 Flame of Tara (Listed): Uleavemebreathless
16:30 Renaissance Stakes(Group 3): Starspangledbanner turning out again but he was just too bad in his last race to think he can win. Of course if he cam back anywhere near his best he would win. I am just going to take a little chance on Firebeam
18:05: Irish St Leger(Group 1): Fame and Glory the likely favourite here but I have a feeling he is not as good as he was and is opposable. I am going to take a little chance on Aiken.
18:40 National Stakes(Group 1): Traditionally the top Irish 2Y0 race and this year's renewal features the high class Dawn Approach who is very hard to oppose. I am unconvinced about Cristoforo Columbo so I wouldn't be surprised to see Flying The Flag grabbing second.

[Piquet]

Aidan O'Brien is taking a chopper from Doncaster to the Curragh to take in the Irish Leger at 6:10. Would he not be better taking a 'plane from Doncaster Airport to, say, Baldonnell? It's a long flight over the Irish Sea in a chopper.

Or am I being alarmist?

[Piquet]

Camelot beaten a length. Yer man on ATR is blaming the jockey, saying that when Barzalona made his break for home on Enka, O'Brien was cruising and failed to respond. "He went from cruising to whipping and that's not what you want to do in a race like that"

[the plastic paddy]

Initially I thought that but the horse had every chance if he was good/ fit enough, Francome was saying on channel 4 that the horse was never moving right for him. I was concerned with how warm the horse was beforehand. Really disappointed but they are not machines which is why we love the game. If we have to wait 42 years to see a horse attempt the triple crown again it could be a bit beyond me unfortunately.

[Benny]

Great ride by Barzalona to win the St Leger. As I expected Encke was well suited by the step up in trip. Lots will blame Joseph O'Brien for this defeat for Camelot but there is no getting away from the fact that when he was asked to go he had no acceleration. He may not have been at his best today because you would have expected him to pick up better than that. To me it looked he didn't travel as well as you'd like through the race.

Anyway I backed Encke each way so I am delighted to get the 25/1 but I do feel disappointed also as I wanted to see a Triple Crown winner.

I did a little tricast for the laugh on Encke, Camelot, Ursa Major...Ahhhh pity Ursa Major didn't grab the third as you'd have been looking at approx 700/1 for that Tricast.

[Benny]

Initially I thought that but the horse had every chance if he was good/ fit enough, Francome was saying on channel 4 that the horse was never moving right for him. I was concerned with how warm the horse was beforehand. Really disappointed but they are not machines which is why we love the game. If we have to wait 42 years to see a horse attempt the triple crown again it could be a bit beyond me unfortunately.

I watched it on ATR but I agree with Francome. Didn't look quite right.

[Benny]

Arc Trials day at Longchamp.

1:30: Prix Foy(Group 2): A chance to see Japan superstar Orfevre in action. This lad has won almost £8 million already. I'm taking him on though with Meandre.

2:40: Prix Niel(Group 2): I am sticking with a horse I have been backing all year, Bayrir. Last Train is a big danger though.

3:10: Prix Vermeille(Group 1): This one for the fillies and Weld will fancy his chances with Princess Highway. Last year's winner Galikova is to be feared as is Shareta and this year's German Oaks winner Salomina for the same combo which gave us Danedream. There are plenty of others with a chance in what looks a top class race but I am going to take a little EW chance on Sediciosa.

3:45: Prix Du Moulin(Group 1): Just the 4 runners here and most people would say it looks to be between Moonlight Cloud and Farhh. However I wouldn't underestimate Sarkiyla who is an improving 3Y0 filly. A few pounds on her for the laugh is just the ticket.


4:20: Prix Gladiateur(Group 3): Just going for Lone Ranger in this.

[the plastic paddy]

I watched it on ATR but I agree with Francome. Didn't look quite right.

Never great to go round a long bend like that on the wrong leg and, lest we forget, he didn't really handle epsom, maybe he is better going the other way. Hope he stays in training next year but will be surprised if he does. Anyway, the tragedy that has befallen the Spence family has wiped away any disappointment I was feeling yesterday, its only a race at the end of the day.

[Stanley]

Marcus Armytage in the DT:
"Given the choice of hugging the rail up the straight or pulling wide early for some clear air, if he had another go Joseph O’Brien would surely take the latter option. As it was the pacemaking Dartford dropped back in his path and the jockey had to take a pull and then switch Camelot, by which time the stayers, including Encke, had already wound their gallop up to full tilt.

Even so it would be logical to assume that a Guineas winner would then pick up and fly but, for the first time, Camelot found life on a racecourse was not easy. His head came up and he never looked likely to catch Encke although, to his credit, even with the battle lost he galloped all the way to the line".



Personally am inclined to go with this although the horse was carrying his head low for most of the race, JOB should not have gone up the inside, he must have known the pacemaker would be coming backwards from a long wat out, even before the race, had he stuck to the outside Encke would not have got first run and Cam would have won.

As it was he cut back 3 lengths and was closing fast another 150 metres, he wins.

JOB rode a poor race and must carry a lot of the blame, what happened on positioning was predictable.

Would Murtagh have won on Cam - yes, defo.

[Stanley]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/hor...ple-Crown.html

Comment 2 is on about JOB, clearly states Fallon, Murtagh and Spencer would not have failed, I agree, the owners have a decision to make.

"the point of this toady analysis is more to ensure a friendly welcome in Fethard rather than to inform your readers of what really happened on Town Moor
The 'no nerves/ice cool' boy jockey got his tactics badly wrong, indecision on the inside was poor and the rest that followed, going for the whip after two pushes down the neck and panicing was the reason the best colt in the race was beaten.
Jockeys do make mistakes, but Fallon, Murtagh or even Spencer are unlikely to have got Camelot beaten and that must be eating away at those who have planned so long for that day and the triple crown glory & your heart goes out to them who have put so much into the game to be denied in this way
A very sad day for racing enthusiasts (not everyone is a punter as in the article), AoB and the five classics in a season and for dear old Montjeu in his quest for a posthumous sires title
Will it take giving St Nicolas Abbey too much to do (as he does in all his races) in the Arc for Coolmore to see sense with regard their stable jockey
As for Camelot, as long as he has come out of the race sound, why not have a crack at Frankel - as a dual classic winner/4 * gp1 winner, what has he got to lose now".

[Benny]

It is easy to blame the jockey, especially when you think the horse is unbeatable. Camelot, if he was good enough on the day, would have quickened as any truly top notch performer at 100% would have and he'd have cauught Encke in 4 strides. He couldn't do it, either because he is not actually truly top class or because he was not 100% right. I'd prefer the second option, despite the reality that he has actually beaten nothing of particular note in any of his races. His racing style rather his form suggested he was top class and I still cling to to that. Indeed finishing so close in a classic while not being right would say he is at least very good, despite the opposition.

It is easy to come along cold and say Fallon, Murtagh, Spencer would have won. All three have been slated at one time or another in the past and all will be again if they are on a fancied horse who doesn't win, regardless of the reason why. I'd contend that the majority watching on haven't a notion of the reason why a horse doesn't win. Fair enough with some jockeys it cannot be coincidence that they get beaten too often and I am not saying it is never the jockeys fault. i'm not even saying that here. I am saying that I believe, regardless of what Jopeph was doing, the horse was not quite right(or is not as good as his style suggests)

Spencer famously lost the 2000 Guineas on Hawk Wing and at the time I absolutely cursed him for making a balls of it. Now I am not so sure. I was talking through my pocket at the time but I am still not certain. Believe me I watched that race hundreds of times such was my finacial liability on it. Hawk Wing was the best horse in that race by at least 7lbs no matter all Rock of Gibraltar's exploits afterwards in beating sub-standard horses in multiple Group 1 races. Hawk Wing showed something Rock didn't have at Newbury which was world class. I took a long while to forgive Spencer but I think his position on the track was at least as much to blame, if not entirely to blame.

Fallon was hailed as a maestro when Gift Horse won the Stewards Cup in 2005 but he said himself it was an awful ride and the horse got him out of trouble.

Imagine if something had drifted towards the rail at Longchamp on October 2nd 2005. Fallon would have been hung out to dry. Instead it was hailed as a masterful ride.

Such are the margins between supposed brilliance and incompetence.

Claims of "great ride" for a guy who wins by a nostril to "terrible ride" for a guy who loses by the same distance are just so far wide of the mark. Some winning rides are great, most are competent, some are below average while most losing rides are competent, some bad, some awful.

I claimed great ride for Barzalona after the Leger. I was over the top after the race, emotional on two fronts....happy because I backed him but mostly very disappointed as I wanted to see a Triple Crown winner. It was a good ride because he did what he should have done and what he is expected to do by giving his horse the best chance he had. Joseph may have done this or he may not. One thing is for sure. If Camelot had an instant turn of foot and zipped past Encke as you'd expect a potential world champion to do Joseph would have been hailed as a fearless rider with a belief in his horse which can only come from natural brilliant horsemanship.*

As for the SNA stuff, Joseph rode him the same way at the Breeders Cup and at Epsom to win. The horse is not a Group 1 10f horse. He is a good Group 1 horse at 12f. His record shows this quite clearly regardless of the jockey. Blame jockeys if we must but the least people can do when commenting is to check a horse's form record.

Of course we are all entitled to our opinions and I am in no way suggesting only I could be correct....except when it comes to SNA at 10f. The evidence here is overwhelming.

[Benny]

As for taking on Frankel: I agree this is what he should do but they will be wary now about him being demolished so may duck it and opt for the Breeders Cup Turf.....course they could still turn up at the Arc. This would certainly show where he is as there's a damn good field this year with at least 3 or 4 top notchers.

[Benny]

Forgot to add it in the post..

* I know I am being a little dramatic here.

[bobbin]

Great post Benny.

I didn't back Camelot as I generally never bet on the flat so interested in your comments, didn't think Joseph had his best moment though. It is a pet hate of mine though when jockeys ride that bit off the pace for no apparent reason. Just need your horse to be that bit more superior to the others at the end, if you know what I mean.

[the plastic paddy]

Enjoying the Listowel festival, bit of seconditis so far but there is rakes of value about. Anyway, I quietly fancy 'Quietly Fancied' for the Kerry National tomorrow, 4.05.

[Benny]

Enjoying the Listowel festival, bit of seconditis so far but there is rakes of value about. Anyway, I quietly fancy 'Quietly Fancied' for the Kerry National tomorrow, 4.05.

Just back in time to catch this race today. First race I've seen since Sunday. Shock result as Faltering Fullback wins it despite having run nothing but shockers so far this year. Strange things can happen of course with heavy ground but the way he travelled he looked like a world beater. With that kind of name this forum should have highlighted him. 33/1 would have been nice.

[Benny]

One I think may have a bit of a chance at a price tomorrow at Listowel is Raggletagglegypsy in the 4:35. At 12/1 GP I'll have a small wager on him.

[the plastic paddy]

Going to side with Cnoc Na Sioga in the 4.35, a bit ew. Although the horse appears better over further, the conditions in Listowel are desperate and a horse that really stays is a must. The important thing with this horse is that he seems to display his best form when carrying a light weight.

[Piquet]

Just back in time to catch this race today. First race I've seen since Sunday. Shock result as Faltering Fullback wins it despite having run nothing but shockers so far this year. Strange things can happen of course with heavy ground but the way he travelled he looked like a world beater. With that kind of name this forum should have highlighted him. 33/1 would have been nice.

I always get suspicious when a trainer has more than one horse in a race and the unfancied one wins.

[the plastic paddy]

I always get suspicious when a trainer has more than one horse in a race and the unfancied one wins.

As they said on ATR, how he only went off at 33s was a bit of a mystery, he was a 200/1 shot in reality but ground like that at Listowel, which is terrible by all accounts, always throws up long price winners.