HEC Group Analysis - After round 3

[scotscor]

If you dont like the idea of speculation and predictions then maybe
this thread isnt for you, however here is a take on the current
standings and the likely group winners.



J@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">ust as an overview, the Italian sides seem to have really gone
backwards this year, twas only 2 years ago that Treviso nearly
qualified from Leinsters group.@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
However the French and English dont seem as dominant as before and
Toulouse in particular are in trouble. The welsh have a great chance of
having a qualifer for teh first time in a couple of years. But probably
the stand out featue is the amount of groups which are still wide open.@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
The favorites for the cup at the moment must be BO, SF and Munster.@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
@@@@SPAN> POOL 1 P W D L F A Bp Pt@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> London Wasps 3 2 0 2 81 32 2 10@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Castres 3 2 0 1 90 69 2 10@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Perpignan 3 2 0 1 72 58 1 9@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Treviso 3 0 0 3 32 121 0 0@@@@/SPAN></font></pre></font><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Very tight group, The only thing separating the top 3 is that Castres prevented USAP from getting a losing BP this weekend.@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Wasps still have to travel to Castres and host USAP at home, while USAP also host Castres.@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
The likelihood is for three more home wins, with all sides getting bps
against Treviso. The group winner will be on about 20 points. Possibly
Wasps have a slightly better chance of qualifying. Second place 19 or
20.@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
@@@@SPAN> POOL 2 P W D L F A Bp Pt@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Leinster 3 2 0 1 87 55 3 11@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Agen 3 2 0 1 61 69 1 9@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Gloucester 3 1 0 2 84 91 2 6@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Edinburgh 3 1 0 2 64 81 1 5@@@@/SPAN></font></pre></font>@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Leinster
need to win next week, if not their chances of being group toppers are
very slim, however if FC is back fit after Christmas then they should
have enough to qualify as a second placed loser@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Agen 22 Leinster 21@@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
@@@@SPAN> POOL 3 P W D L F A Bp Pt@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Stade 3 3 0 0 99 40 2 14@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Ospreys 3 2 0 1 81 70 1 9@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Sale Sharks 3 1 0 2 99 55 2 6@@@@/SPAN>
@@@@SPAN> Calvisano 3 0 0 3 48 162 0 0
@@@@/SPAN></font></pre></font>@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Three
sides still in it, I think both the sharks and the Os will feel they
could beat Paris at home, probably one of them will. The sharks will
beat the ospreys in stockport. @@@@/SPAN><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">@@@@SPAN style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
So Stade to top the table with 24 points Ospreys second with 18@@@@/SP

[Paddy Whac]

<BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">So the seeds@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">1. BO@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">2. Munster@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">3. Stade@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">4. Agen@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">5. Wasps@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">6. Scarlets@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">7. Leinster@@@@/SPAN>
8. Castres

Imagine if it was to end like you predict, we win a home QF and because of no suitable venue being available we all have to travel to the likes of Cardiff. But wouldn't it be great if we have a similar result to the SF.


C'mon Munster

[Well Man]

It would be great ot see three Irish sides in the last eight, proving that we are now a force in world rugby and have a great chance of emulating what was achieved by Ulster Celtic League winners, Ireland triple crown &amp; of course Munster HC winners, so we hope that Ireland will win the championship get at least to the semi finalof the WC, Ulster win the League and we retain the HC. I bet most Irish people would be happy with that with the exception of those at D4


If only I could be transported by time machine to October 20th 2007 and all this would be over!!!![img]smileys/c&#111;nfused.gif[/img]

[Hakaman]

Surely, in the event of us getting a home QF the Union can't have us trapsing off to oul' foreign lands for a QF? Considering, if it's a hald-decent QF, they'd have the guaranteed 14,000 ticket sell-out in Thumpin Park, whereas they's have nothing guaranteed elsewhere.


I know, the Union will sy to themselves, "these Munster fans are complete chumps, we could arrange this game for Hawaii and they'd still have 20,000 there, so f*ck 'em". [img]smileys/sad.gif[/img]

[JoeyFantastic]

.

J@@@@SPAN style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">ust as an overview, the Italian sides seem to have really gone backwards this year, twas only 2 years ago that Treviso nearly qualified from Leinsters group.@@@@/SPAN><BR style="COLOR: rgb(0,0,0)">

Victims of Italy's recent (if relative) success. More Italian players are playing HEC rugby with GP and Top14 teams, the Italian league has suffered a talent drain of sorts and it will take time to bounce back.

[rathbaner]

I think it would be a tragedy if we met leinster before the semis.


What a final it would make though. In London too, biggest overseas Irish population of any european country, 80,000 fans, enduring image isn't it? -[img]smileys/shock.gif[/img]

Ah yes the rugby game,...... hardest game in the world that.
Done it me self man and boy, 30 years....


Done me back in, in the end.... still...

[danthefan]

Scots is this your predictions? I can't see Agen beating Embra in Embra.

[scotscor]

Scots is this your predictions? I can't see Agen beating Embra in Embra.

I think on the balance of probability an Agen side trying to top the
group against an already out edinburgh side have a chance, similarly I
think Leinster have a better than 50% chance of beating glaws away.

[toomey]

Way too early for this thread boys. Personally think Leinster will struggle to make it although I hope they do.

[scotscor]

Way too early for this thread boys. Personally think
Leinster will struggle to make it although I hope they do.

toomey, a lot of people will agree with you, which is why I put a
disclaimer at the start. Some people do enjoy these speculation threads
and it is meant for these.

[mike11]

Don't agree with some of the reading/predictions here.


BO are way out (&amp; have an easy group) - 1.


I'd tip Stade for 2


We might come 3,4 or 5 - I'm an optimist now - 3.


Think Leinster will do the job in France - 4.


It's a scrap between Scarlets and Ulster for pool 5 - Scarlets (sorry guys).


Bigger scrap in Pool 1 - Castres win has upset the cart. Could be anyone. Anyones guess from Castres, USAP and Wasps.


2 best losers? We could end up with Saints (just because Borders and the ham-eaters are so poor) and Tigers (we have to watch out) or any of 2nd in pools 3 or 5. Not easy to predict - and it'll be close (&amp; tearful as usual).

[Mcork]

Was the Biarritz group a sop to keep Blanco on side I wonder[img]smileys/wink.gif[/img]. It's ridiculously easy. Did the seeding system really throw up that? Parma, borders &amp; Northhampton. Connacht would come out of that group without too much trouble. It's why I'd have Biarritz down as favourites at this stage. They basically have 3 games to win the competition &amp; 1 of those at "home" against the 8th seed.


Stade are really motoring but now have 2 very tough away games although I fancy them to win both, they wont be easy.

[ozoyo]

Very hard to predict... my major doubts are about:
<ul>[*]Stade Français: Can they beat both Os and Sale away? Both Sale and Os can do it and, with games left against Calvisano they are all still in the race.

However, HEC is a priority for them this year and they have an amazing pool of players and I am afraid, they might as well win both.
[*]Leinster: I think they will win in Agen. Agen are still young on the European scene and they are no match for Leinster. Edinburgh at home should be ok as well.
My doubts are rather about Gloucester. It all depends about what is at stake for the last game if they win the next two games the game in kingsholm will be hard to win.[/list]I think the top 4 will be BO, Stade, Munster, Leinster.

[wildRover]

Nice effort Scotscor,and you won't be far wrong.


Is anybody else finding the pool stages are becoming a bitboring and predictable, ok there are a couple of groups in the balance but a lot of last weeks results were foregone conclusions, teams capitulate once they lose 2 games, the Italian clubs are getting weaker and most of the same faces always appear in the quarterfinals anyway.


Will Cardiff and Bourgoinput a big effort into next weekends games? I doubt it.

[Mcork]

Good man Thomas:


Ozoyo: Can you explain the phrase in red below, it must be a direct translation from french as it makes no sense in English.[img]smileys/lol.gif[/img]





Thomas Castaignède
Monday December 11, 2006
The Guardian


<DIV id=GuardianArticle>The same main actors on the stage, the same suspense but every year a different scenario: that is the Heineken Cup in a nutshell and Munster's sheer consistency makes them one of the biggest players on it. Yesterday's record, equalling Leicester's 11 consecutive wins, was richly deserved and needs to be put in context.


Firstly, this year the Irish team are in a particularly difficult pool with Leicester, Bourgoin and Cardiff Blues. But they have maintained the standard they have set for years, producing rugby which is easy on the eye, digging out a few imported players who can bring that little bit extra - the South African Trevor Halstead is this year's discovery for me - and approaching the competition with total focus. Nothing else matters for them.<A name=article_c&#111;ntinue></A>Those 11 games on the trot have coincided with Ronan O'Gara's rise into the finest fly-half in European rugby, with his only northern hemisphere rival, Jonny Wilkinson, unlucky in his fitness. O'Gara is clear-headed, creative, visionary and, like Daniel Carter, he can switch his game in the blink of an eye. He is lucky, of course, to play behind one of the best packs in Europe, led by Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan, two locks so complementary that each is like the sixth finger on the right hand of the other. [img]smileys/lol.gif[/img]


They have a squad with resources to die for - Christian Cullen no less is on the sidelines - and every year they seem to find the odd home-grown nugget too, like Jerry Flannery.


To me, they combine the best of what Ireland has to offer: Leinster can produce superb creativity among their backs, led by Brian O'Driscoll, while Ulster are a tightly knit machine with David Humphreys always pulling them forwards.


Munster are the perfect balance between the two styles and that's why I'd hail them as the best team in Europe at the moment. The other squads get to their level occasionally; Munster don't slip and they have been that way for years, with a record of getting to the knockout stages which is unique.


One big advantage they have over the other big names, from France and England, is the structure within which they play. Munster have the luxury of being able to manage their squad for the biggest occasions, rather than merely hoping that everyone is fit at the right time during a season packed with must-win games. Hence their relatively low injury count. In France and England selection is largely a question of who is available rather than who the trainers want to be available. (I'd have to disagree with this, we were decimated by injury last year when we won).


Apart from Munster marching on, what other conclusions can be drawn at the halfway stage of this Heineken Pool phase? There's clearly one weaker pool than the others, Pool Six with Biarritz, Northampton, Reivers and Parma, and that is likely to produce one of the best runners-up. That will in turn put the pressure on all the other teams and it's showing: Leinster lost at Edinburgh, Llanelli beat Toulouse who, together with Wasps, are finding life surprisingly difficult.


Similarly at international level Ireland are on the up and Wales are punching above their weight. Ulster's Pool Five with London Irish, Toulouse and Llanelli is

[epaddy]

Very hard to predict... my major doubts are about:
<ul>[*]Stade
Français: Can they beat both Os and Sale away? Both Sale and Os can do
it and, with games left against Calvisano they are all still in the
race.

However, HEC is a priority for them this year and they
have an amazing pool of players and I am afraid, they might as well win
both.
[*]Leinster: I think they will win in Agen. Agen are
still young on the European scene and they are no match for Leinster.
Edinburgh at home should be ok as well.
My doubts are rather about
Gloucester. It all depends about what is at stake for the last game if
they win the next two games the game in kingsholm will be hard to win.[/list]I think the top 4 will be BO, Stade, Munster, Leinster.

I really hope you are right, but there is too much going against us at
the moment I think. If we win in Agen we will top the group but a wont
be gutted with just a BP, leaves us with a great chance of getting
through.

[ozoyo]

MCork that's a great sentence[img]smileys/lol.gif[/img].
I can't really see a French expression that would have lead to this though.
I am not a native English speaker but the whole article looks like a French &gt; English babelfish translation; horrible franglish.

I also think pool 6 is a complete joke. Next time they should just qualify BO straight to 1/4 finals. I know it is a little bit harsh but the Parma and Calvisano don't seem to have anything to do in the HC (Treviso hardly better this year). They are down 120 points after three games!!! I think it twists the whole qualification process.
I understand that there is no other choice than integrating them in the HC. The seeding process should then be rethought.

Epaddy, I really think it is going to be Ok, what I have seen on Saturday against a more than decent opposition is quite convincing. I just hope the referee does not allow Agen to cheat in rucks the way they did.

[Well Man]

[QUOTE=Mcork]


Good man Thomas:


Ozoyo: Can you explain the phrase in red below, it must be a direct translation from french as it makes no sense in English.[img]smileys/lol.gif[/img]





Thomas Castaignède
Monday December 11, 2006
The Guardian


<DIV id=GuardianArticle>The same main actors on the stage, the same suspense but every year a different scenario: that is the Heineken Cup in a nutshell and Munster's sheer consistency makes them one of the biggest players on it. Yesterday's record, equalling Leicester's 11 consecutive wins, was richly deserved and needs to be put in context.


Firstly, this year the Irish team are in a particularly difficult pool with Leicester, Bourgoin and Cardiff Blues. But they have maintained the standard they have set for years, producing rugby which is easy on the eye, digging out a few imported players who can bring that little bit extra - the South African Trevor Halstead is this year's discovery for me - and approaching the competition with total focus. Nothing else matters for them.<A name=article_c&#111;ntinue></A>Those 11 games on the trot have coincided with Ronan O'Gara's rise into the finest fly-half in European rugby, with his only northern hemisphere rival, Jonny Wilkinson, unlucky in his fitness. O'Gara is clear-headed, creative, visionary and, like Daniel Carter, he can switch his game in the blink of an eye. He is lucky, of course, to play behind one of the best packs in Europe, led by Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan, two locks so complementary that each is like the sixth finger on the right hand of the other. [img]smileys/lol.gif[/img]


They have a squad with resources to die for - Christian Cullen no less is on the sidelines - and every year they seem to find the odd home-grown nugget too, like Jerry Flannery.


To me, they combine the best of what Ireland has to offer: Leinster can produce superb creativity among their backs, led by Brian O'Driscoll, while Ulster are a tightly knit machine with David Humphreys always pulling them forwards.


Munster are the perfect balance between the two styles and that's why I'd hail them as the best team in Europe at the moment. The other squads get to their level occasionally; Munster don't slip and they have been that way for years, with a record of getting to the knockout stages which is unique.


One big advantage they have over the other big names, from France and England, is the structure within which they play. Munster have the luxury of being able to manage their squad for the biggest occasions, rather than merely hoping that everyone is fit at the right time during a season packed with must-win games. Hence their relatively low injury count. In France and England selection is largely a question of who is available rather than who the trainers want to be available. (I'd have to disagree with this, we were decimated by injury last year when we won).


Apart from Munster marching on, what other conclusions can be drawn at the halfway stage of this Heineken Pool phase? There's clearly one weaker pool than the others, Pool Six with Biarritz, Northampton, Reivers and Parma, and that is likely to produce one of the best runners-up. That will in turn put the pressure on all the other teams and it's showing: Leinster lost at Edinburgh, Llanelli beat Toulouse who, together with Wasps, are finding life surprisingly difficult.


Similarly at international level Ireland are on the up and Wales are punching above their weight. Ulster's Pool Five with London Irish, Toulouse

Only thing I'd disagree with is that we will get 10 points from next 2 games. I reckon 8 we should get, 9 (BP v Bourgoin) is a possible but a stretch but 10 with a BP against Cardiff is pushing it. I don't think Cardiff effectively being out so rolling over is going to be the case at all. They could have beaten us and should have beaten Leicester. They will fancy taking on both of us away and will reckon they're good for 5 points against Bourgoin. In which case they could still rack up 18points. If we beat Leicester as well, they'd be on similar points. If Leicester beat us we could be on similar points. Cardiff could still win the group so they're not going to roll over next week.


I reckon we have to look at winning each of our last 3 games by any margin going. That will get us 25 points. Stade, BO, Llanelli and Leinster could all beat that but they'd have to do 5 pointers each remaining game. Neither Leinster nor Llanelli can be sure of even winning last 3 games. I would reckon just 4 pointers in last 3 games would get us a home QF. That should be our aim. Take your win first and anything extra that comes along is what it's called, a bonus (point).

[Munsterboy]

I think we'll get the bonus against Cardiff next weekend. I don't suggest that they'll roll over (everybody wants to beat us this season) but I think we'll play a lot better than we did yesterday.


We made more errors yesterday than we normally do in the whole group stage and that was what kept Cardiff in the game. They were also more aggressive at the breakdown than expected but we'll be ready for that next time. I'm confident that our pack will dominate and win us much more possession and if the conitions are a bit better our backs will cut out the errors and have a real cut at them.

I also think they could some 50-50 (to say the least) decisions. Ones where we were penalised for not releasing as several Cardiff players lay slumped over the back of the ruck killing the ball anyway. At worst a few of those could have been scrums as 6 of one half a dozen of the other.


One thing that has been interesting all season for Ireland and was something I saw with us yesterday is that a good win was actually a poor performance and there was another 30 or 40% more there. With better handling and a bit more control we'd have picked up far more points. Cardiff on the other hand couldn't look to have done a lot more as the reasons they failed to breech our line were down to us not them.


Having said that, I'd still be surprised if we scored 4 tries against them because they're a good outfit. I also wouldn't be surprised if they turned over Leicester.

[Sarsfield]

I agree to an extent. We did well to get the four and restrict them to nowt yesterday and they are certainly a good side. BUT, Cardiff's attachement to the HEC at this stage must be very poor. They have the EDF and Cider League to be worrying about still. This isn't complacency, they have a fine back row and and in Blair and Philips have two players with real attacking menace and we must expect the same level of aggression next week. I wouldn't expect them to hand us so much ball either. That said, we are good enought to take them for a bonus point at home. We should be aiming for it.

PS, Will Robinson start for them? Dai Young didn't appear that pleased with him...

[sewa]

POOL 1 P W D L F A Bp Pt
London Wasps 3 2 0 2 81 32 2 10
Castres 3 2 0 1 90 69 2 10
Perpignan 3 2 0 1 72 58 1 9
Treviso 3 0 0 3 32 121 0 0 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>


Castres or USAP to win group with 20 points. Wasps second with 19 points

POOL 2 P W D L F A Bp Pt
Leinster 3 2 0 1 87 55 3 11
Agen&n bsp; 3 2 0 1 61 69 1 9
Gloucester 3 1 0 2 84 91 2 6 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>
Edinburgh 3 1 0 2 64 81 1 5 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>

Leinster won’t win next week or in Gloucester. Agen 22, Leinster17

POOL 3 P W D L F A Bp Pt
Stade& nbsp; 3 3 0 0 99 40 2 14
Ospreys 3 2 0 1 81 70 1 9 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>
Sale Sharks 3 1 0 2 99 55 2 6 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>
Calvisano 3 0 0 3 48 162 0 0 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>

Cant see Stade losing any games. Stade 28, Sale15 points

POOL 4 P W D L F A Bp Pt
Munster 3 3 0 0 84 54 1 13
Leicester 3 2 0 1 68 51 1 9
Cardiff Bl 3 1 0 2 42 48 1 5 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>
Bourgoin 3 0 0 2 41 82 0 0 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>

Munsterlace 27 Leicester18

POOL 5 P W D L F A Bp Pt
Llanelli Sc 3 3 0 0 73 59 1 13
London Irish 3 1 0 2 54 40 2 6 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>
Toulouse 3 1 0 2 59 67 2 6
Ulster 3 1 0 2 58 59 1 6 - @@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;">gone@@@@/SPAN>

Toulouse to make a big comeback and win with 19 points, Scarlets second on 18

POOL 6 P W D L F A Bp Pt
Biarritz 3 3 0 0 97 17 2 15
Northampton 3 2 0&nb

[i_like_cake]

We did well to get the four and restrict them to nowt yesterday and they are certainly a good side. BUT, Cardiff's attachement to the HEC at this stage must be very poor. They have the EDF and Cider League to be worrying about still. This isn't complacency, they have a fine back row and and in Blair and Philips have two players with real attacking menace and we must expect the same level of aggression next week. I wouldn't expect them to hand us so much ball either. That said, we are good enought to take them for a bonus point at home. We should be aiming for it.

I agree Sarsfield, we should be aiming to take a bonus point win next weekend. And Philips should get a very special Thomond Park welcome.. .. the Bo££ox...

[blackpudding]

Sewa , your reply is just gibberish, its full of smilies and impossible to read!

[sewa]

Sewa , your reply is just gibberish, its full of smilies and impossible to read!

I copied Scotscor's post into word. That causes all the smilies. Plus I am very happy today. [img]smileys/biggrin.gif[/img]

[Kerry-Exile]

if you use Notepad that avoids the smileys, if you want to avoid the smileys[img]smileys/wink.gif[/img]

[Sarsfield]

We did well to get the four and restrict them to nowt yesterday and they are certainly a good side. BUT, Cardiff's attachement to the HEC at this stage must be very poor. They have the EDF and Cider League to be worrying about still. This isn't complacency, they have a fine back row and and in Blair and Philips have two players with real attacking menace and we must expect the same level of aggression next week. I wouldn't expect them to hand us so much ball either. That said, we are good enought to take them for a bonus point at home. We should be aiming for it.

I agree Sarsfield, we should be aiming to take a bonus point win next weekend. And Philips should get a very special Thomond Park welcome.. .. the Bo££ox...

I'd expect that, yes, Philips is a bo££ix but then, that's how the opposition usually regards our Peter. Ergo, Philips must be doing something right. I thought Stringer did very well at harrying the Blues scrum BTW.

I wouldn't count cardiff or ospreys out at moment. 3 5 pointers would put cardiff on 20 and ospreys on 24. Those are easily good enough to qualify. Now that's a bit much on cardiff's part to expect but they'd fancy 5 from Bourgoin, have a good enough back line to score 4 against Leicester (winning might be the difficult bit) and would be keen to have another crack at us. So they could get maybe 13 points, which on 18 is still enough to get 2nd place.

[who?]

I wouldn't count cardiff or ospreys out at moment. 3 5 pointers would put cardiff on 20 and ospreys on 24. Those are easily good enough to qualify. Now that's a bit much on cardiff's part to expect but they'd fancy 5 from Bourgoin, have a good enough back line to score 4 against Leicester (winning might be the difficult bit) and would be keen to have another crack at us. So they could get maybe 13 points, which on 18 is still enough to get 2nd place.

Nah, can't see 18 points being anywhere near enough to get through. The Saints could lose home &amp; away to Biarritz without picking up any bonus points and yet will still pick up 20 points from the other 4 games. That leaves just one runner-up spot, and that won't go as cheaply as 18 points.