Approaching the Final Fence, who needs what?

• Munster plod along, still unbeaten but no bonus points probably need a win to get a home QF
• Cardiff keep their noses in Front but have no margin for error
• Leinster continue to struggle away but their last game is at home where they have an average winning margin of 25 Points.
• Ulster did well but need another big performance
• Sarries are almost there, they need to do a "Devon Lough" not to qualify from here.
• Toulouse edge slightly further ahead giving themselves a bigger margin for error.

In the following analysis, the number of tries is in brackets after the first mention of the team.It is assumed that Leinster will beat Montpellier.

Pool One
Munster (9) have qualified in first place but in all probability they need points from their visit to Milton Keynes to get a home QF.
Any win will guarantee them a home QF.
If they get three points ( Draw, scoring four tries or more) they will be on 23 Points and will get a home QF Unless all of the following happen:

• Toulouse (13) get five
• Saracens (11) get five
• Ulster (16) get four or five points

Two points, (lose by seven or fewer and score four tries or more or draw with fewer than four tries) will be enough unless all of the following happen:

• Toulouse get four or more ,
• Saracens get four or more ,
• Ulster get three or more
• The winners of Pool Two ( Cardiff (6) or Edinburgh (13)) get five.

A losing or a four try bonus would do unless all of the following happen:

• Toulouse get three or more,
• Saracens get three or more,
• Ulster get two and win the Pool or more or Clermont get five,
• The winners of Pool Two get four or more.

No points would only be enough if two of the following happen:

• Toulouse get one and win Pool Six or Harlequins (10) get four or fewer and win the Pool
• Saracens get one
• Either Edinburgh win Pool two getting two points or fewer or Cardiff win the Pool getting three points or fewer.

Believe it or not, Northampton (15) can still qualify. They need a five pointer and only one of the following may happen:

• Leicester (9) getting five in Welford road v Aironi and turning over the tries difference.
• Clermont (25) getting one v Ulster
• The second team in Pool two getting one and turning over the tries difference.
• Harlequins(10) getting two or one and turning over the tries Difference
• The winner of Biarritz (13) v Ospreys (12) getting five and turning over the Tries Difference.

Pool Two
This pool is relatively simple. Cardiff, despite what Sky, the ERC and many of the Papers say, lead going into the last weekend on the head to head ("5-4") over Edinburgh . They must match Edinburgh's Match Points to win the Pool. Five points will qualify Edinburgh. Either as Pool winners if Cardiff get four or fewer, or as the best runners up if Cardiff get five. Four would be enough for either team to qualify in second as long as the second placed team in Pool Four (Clermont or Ulster) and Pool Six (Toulouse or Harlequins) don't both end up on 21. If this happens it will go to tries and Cardiff are vulnerable here having scored only six to date.

Neither of the other two teams in Pool Two have any further interest in the Competition.

Pool Three
Leinster have won the Pool and will wrap up a home QF with any win.

No other team in Pool Three has any further interest in the Heineken.

Pool Four

Any win or draw wins Ulster the Pool. Four points would probably get them a home QF, Both Saracens and Toulouse would need five to catch them and Sarries would need six tries more than Ulster and Toulouse four more than Ulster to pass them out. In the event of tries being level it goes to Points difference Ulster lead this 75 to 55 (Toulouse) to 32 (Sarries).
Three points would bring the Pool Two winners into it. Cardiff (PD 26) would need eleven tries more and Edinburgh (PD -5) five more to pass them out. Of course if Leinster or Munster or both were to slip up, that would make things easier.

If Ulster lose 4-0 , 5-1 or 5-0, Clermont will win the Pool on 20, 21 or 21 respectively.
A 5-2 or a 4-1 win by Clermont would leave the two teams level on 21 or 20 and level on Match Points in the Head to Head. Tries are next ( 1-1 at present) and then Points difference in the head to head (Ulster five ahead).

Ulster must therefore:

• Score more tries and lose by less than seven

OR

• Score the same tries and lose by less than five.

If the tries are level and Clermont win by five, it goes to total tries scored in the pool (Clermont 25, Ulster 16)

A 4-2 win by Clermont wins Ulster the Pool on 21 Points.

Leicester need five points, which they'll probably get, and miracles elsewhere to qualify. Aironi have yet to pick up a point and hardly will in Leicester.
Pool Five

A point for Saracens wins them the Pool on 19 points. If they get no points and Biarritz get five, then Biarritz win the head to head on tries 3-2. Ospreys cannot catch Sarries having lost to them twice. Five points might get the winner of Biarritz v Ospreys a second placed spot. They would need two from

• The second in Pool Two to stay on 17 ( or if it was Cardiff 18),
• Harlequins to get two or fewer and the try count to stay in their favour
• Clermont to be second in Pool Four and get one point or fewer.

Four points would need two of the following to happen:

• Cardiff finish second and stay on 17
• Harlequins to get one or zero and the try count to stay in their favour
• Clermont to be second in Pool Four and get zero points.

Treviso are out of contention on six points but are unbeaten at home this year having drawn with the Ospreys and beaten Biarritz. they won't go down easily.

Pool Six

Toulouse can afford to get two points fewer than Harlequins and still win the pool, having won the head to head "5-4". A "fiver" in the Showgrounds tonight would put 'quins in the picture for a QF spot on 21 points.