Entering the Final Straight in the Qualification Stakes

· Only two unbeaten teams left. Leinster who are impressive and Munster who are not.
· No one wants to have an Easter weekend trip to Lansdowne. The 3/1 available about Leinster before Round Four looks generous. Of course not since Ulster won on 1999 has the Cup been presented in January.
· Cardiff and Toulouse got important losing bonuses to win their respective “head to heads”
· Ulster, despite their leading position will probably need two wins or at the very least a win and a draw to progress.

Pool One Munster keep on winning without impressing. A bonus point win over Castres (H) in Round Five would wrap up the Pool but the continuing lack of a bonus means that they will almost certainly need two wins or a win and a draw in the last two rounds to get the home Quarter Final. Scarlets must win their last two matches and hope for a major slip-up from Munster. Their maximum total is 21 which might be enough for a second placed spot in the quarter finals. Two bonus point wins for Northampton would put them on 18 and if Munster lost to Castres and got two points or less in their last two matches, Saints would win the Pool!! Castres could even win the Pool if they win both their remaining matches, “5-0”, Scarlets beat Northampton and Northampton beat Munster while Munster get no Bonuses.
Pool Two Lee Halpenny’s last minute kick in Murrayfield last time out could be crucial to the outcome of this pool. It got Cardiff the Losing Bonus and won them the “Head-to-head” over Edinburgh 5-4. (Contrary to most papers, and the ERC website, Cardiff actually lead the Pool. Match Points in the head to head is the first tie breaker when teams are level.) From here on, Cardiff must match Edinburgh’s Match points. They go to Reading next and finish up at home to Racing while Edinburgh go to Paris next and are at home to Irish last. Edinburgh would appear to have the easier finish although a lot will depend on Racing’s and London Irish’s attitude from here London Irish appear to have fouled up royally by losing to Racing. Even still, two wins by either of the bottom two could win them the Pool.
Pool Three Leinster power ahead to the top of the rankings. They can wrap up the Pool in Glasgow next time out or failing that at home to Montpelier in Round Six. While two wins for Glasgow would put them back into contention, their maximum total is 20 points, a total that Leinster can exceed with a bonus point win in Round Six [and who would back against that] Bath are one of the few teams out of the Heineken Cup. Curiously, Montpellier can win the Pool with five pointers in their last two matches provided Bath beat Glasgow and Leinster get no more points.
Pool Four Assuming that both Clermont and Leicester get five against Aironi, and noting that Clermont won the head to head, Clermont look to be in Pole Position despite being third in the Pool. They need to get a point more than Leicester against Ulster to win the Pool. They should do this, given that they are at home and Leicester must travel. Ten points will win Clermont the Pool unless Leicester get five in Ravenhill.
Ulster need to beat Leicester and get at least a draw in Clermont to win the Pool. A draw in Ravenhill and a win in the Michelin would also do. If Ulster were to get five against Leicester, a 5-2 or 4-1 loss in Clermont would leave the two of them on 21 or 20 points and level on Match Points. It would then go to tries (1-1 at present) and Points Difference (Ulster five ahead) the next tiebreakers are Overall tries in the Pool (13-12 to Clermont) and Overall Points difference ( Clermont 19 ahead) A 4-2 loss would win Ulster the pool on 21 points

Anything less would need Leicester or Clermont or both to slip up v Aironi, failing to get the bonus.

Were Leicester to win in Ulster, without the bonus It would mean the end for Ulster and probably qualification for Leicester given their last game is at home to Aironi. Clermont would need five against Ulster to stay ahead of Leicester. If Leicester win with the bonus, they will win the pool.

Pool Five Saracens host Biarritz next time out in what looks like a Pool decider. Any win for Sarries wins them the Pool. A win for BOPB would turn the Pool on its head, putting them ahead with the visit of the Ospreys to come. Given precarious position in the Top 14 with a game away to Castres (fourth) on the Thursday after Round Six, you would have to question their commitment.
Pool Six The losing bonus for Toulouse in Round four not only put them on top of the Pool but won them the “head to head” with Harlequins. They now have what looks like an easy five pointer at home to Connacht followed by a trip to Kingsholm. They will fancy themselves to win both of those games which would put them on 22 points and out of Harlequins reach. ‘Quins must win both their games (Gloucester at home and Connacht away) and hope to get two points more than Toulouse get.
At the moment, the Quarter Finals would be:
Leinster v Biarritz
Munster v Edinburgh
Ulster v Cardiff
Saracens v Toulouse

With Harlequins, Leicester and Scarlets going to the Amlin.